This Warriors offseason will largely be about a coin-flip between two true outcomes:

Either they’ll add LeBron James — to a roster that already has Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler — and set up a gods-and-consequences season that could make “The Odyssey” seem like a muted little yarn.

Or they won’t get LeBron, things will be a bit less cinematic, and maybe this methodical rebuilding venture can begin in earnest.

Sort of a big difference there! (And maybe slightly more interesting and significant than waiting around for months last year to see how the Jonathan Kuminga situation would be resolved.)

To be clear, the Warriors’ entire offseason doesn’t hinge singularly on the LeBron result. In fact, a few other factors could have higher priority, leading with a potential trade for New Orleans’ Trey Murphy III, Utah’s Lauri Markkanen, or another 20-something core player to help reset the Warriors’ competitive timeline.

But with or without a major trade, the Warriors might be able to land LeBron and tilt the NBA board more than a bit back their way for at least one more season without having to pay enormous money or give up draft picks or players. That one would steal the headlines. That one would give 2026-27 incredible historical meaning. That one would be the dramatic final chapter for this riveting dynastic documentary-in-real-time.

Also, I’m not saying that the Warriors would hurtle into a do-or-die season if they get LeBron. Steve Kerr has made it clear that desperate title-chasing is no longer the working thesis of this franchise and, even if Joe Lacob always wants to push things as far as possible, it’s wise to keep an eye on the future beyond the Curry era.

But if LeBron gets fitted for a Warriors uniform, there would be an inevitable heating up of all immediate title hopes, and the proceeding personnel decisions would have to reflect that.

Just days before the draft and less than two weeks before the start of free agency, it’s still very hard to predict the outcome on this, especially from the Warriors’ side, because they have almost nothing to do with the LeBron process other than getting their payroll in line for just such a possibility.

But if the Lakers and LeBron can’t agree on a salary figure and LeBron starts looking around at his free-agent options … well, the Warriors surely wouldn’t be far down on his agent’s call sheet.

Very important note: The Warriors can’t offer more than the $15.1 million nontaxpayer midlevel exception in the first year of any prospective LeBron deal — which is a lot less than the $52.6 million he earned last season — and they can only do that if they shed enough salary to get under the luxury-tax line with plenty of room to spare (so they can fill out the roster while being hard-capped at the first apron).

LeBron might not want any part of that kind of pay cut. Nobody would want that kind of pay cut. But it’s all the Warriors would have to offer, and I believe the Warriors are in play for this scenario. So it’s possible LeBron is ready for this kind of salary in the right situation.

If LeBron signs with the Warriors, everything else about their offseason would get extremely constricted and realigned. Just setting themselves up for the chance at getting him would limit what the Warriors could do in other avenues — and possibly freeze them out of the big trade market. But even at 41, LeBron would be worth the commotion and financial limitations.

And LeBron at $15.1 million to give Curry a much better shot at one more great run through the playoffs? The Warriors should never say no to that.

But they also understand that the Lakers can pay him much more. The Warriors know that they have many holes to fill. They know that even if they sign LeBron, they won’t be the favorites in the Western Conference, and they still would need to plot out a practical plan for their next era.

So it made sense for Mike Dunleavy to offer a verbal shrug on Tuesday when he was asked about the prospect of signing a much older player when the Warriors have conceded that it’s time for them to get a lot younger.

“Frankly, it’s not the best thing, but if it’s going to make us better, like significantly better, I think we have to look at that, because that’s really our thought process and job right now is to make this team better,” Dunleavy said at his pre-draft presser.

And bringing in an older player isn’t the likeliest scenario, Dunleavy added. I agree. My own guess: I’ll give it a 55-45 strong lean to LeBron going back to the Lakers.

The Warriors can’t count on adding LeBron. But it would be such a big deal if they did. Which is why this offseason can be split into two pathways: one with LeBron and one without.

Quick aside: This isn’t even the first major sliding-doors moment for the Warriors this offseason. And the first one — bringing Kerr back on a two-year extension after he publicly contemplated walking away — has a big effect on this one.

If Kerr was no longer with the Warriors, there’s very little chance they’d even consider adding LeBron to a locker room already loaded with big personalities, or that LeBron would’ve contemplated it without the man who coached LeBron and Curry to a gold medal in the 2024 Olympics.

• ‘Everything is on the table’ for the Warriors ahead of the NBA Draft. As it should be

• How Joe Lacob’s $50 million bet changed the WNBA forever

Door 1: Kerr leaves, the Warriors hire a younger coach and don’t have a chance to get LeBron, and maybe Draymond and Butler don’t really fit, anymore, either.

Door 2: Kerr stays, and the Warriors might get LeBron to play alongside Draymond, Butler, and Curry.

Again: Big difference!

OK, with all that said, let’s examine the LeBron/No-LeBron fork in the road this offseason piece by piece and in the order that they’ll come up for the Warriors.

This is the pending Dunleavy decision probably least affected by the LeBron issue — Dunleavy’s never picked higher as Warriors general manager and this draft is deep enough to presume that somebody valuable will get to the Warriors at 11.

That’s a good thing for the Warriors, because they’ll have to make this pick days before there’s likely to be clarity on LeBron’s situation with the Lakers. And if there’s an opportunity to trade the pick for, say, Murphy, Dunleavy would probably go ahead and do it before he knows which way the LeBron situation is headed. (Any trade like that would have to involve a lot more than the 11th pick for salary-matching purposes, but let’s just start with the pick in this discussion because it’s the move that would have to be declared first.)

1 readers have shared their thoughts on this story

But the Warriors probably will have some LeBron clues before the draft, even though they’re not allowed to negotiate with other team’s free agents until June 30. They’re already talking with Draymond about his decision whether to exercise his $27.6 million player option for next season or decline it and sign a multiyear deal; it just so happens that Rich Paul represents both Draymond and LeBron.

And there will be some spillover to the draft decision, I believe.

If the Warriors are pretty sure they’re not getting LeBron, they can freely pick Michigan wing Yaxel Lendeborg, who is as NBA-ready as it gets and could walk into a fairly major role this season.

But with LeBron on the depth chart, Lendeborg would be facing a large roadblock for playing time behind Draymond, LeBron, and, when he’s healthy, Butler. (Add Moses Moody to this list if he can make it back much later in the season.) And Lendeborg will turn 24 in September; by the time playing time clears up in the LeBron scenario, Lendeborg would be well into his mid-20s. Not ideal.

If the Warriors think they have a good chance at LeBron, they might be more likely to select Lendeborg’s Michigan teammate, Aday Mara, who, as a true center, could be valuable both short- and long-term with the Warriors, or Louisville guard Mikel Brown Jr.

Possible options at 11 who might fit both scenarios: Tennessee big wing Nate Ament or international wing Karim López.

Player the Warriors are praying gets to them at 11, no matter what happens with LeBron: Arizona guard Brayden Burries, who is talented enough to fit right into the Warriors’ veteran mix and steady enough to meet Dunleavy’s public call to end the team’s spree of turnovers.

The Warriors won’t have access to the nontaxpayer MLE if both of these guys come back at full price.

Draymond almost certainly would be more amenable to declining his option and signing a multiyear deal if he knew it was a tangible step toward possibly signing LeBron. And if Draymond agrees to this by next week, it might be because he has some inkling about what’s in motion.

Contrastingly, if Draymond doesn’t decline his option, it’d be a sign that the Warriors and LeBron aren’t locking in on each other … and would be an indication that Draymond and the Warriors aren’t yet on the same page for future years.

Meanwhile, to get under the tax line, the Warriors could either just let Porzingis walk in free agency, re-sign him for less than the $30 million he made last season, or sign-and-trade him for somebody making less than $30 million.

In a Yes-LeBron universe, I think the Warriors would very much want Porzingis on this team, possibly to pair with Mara.

If they don’t get LeBron, I think the Warriors would still want to keep Porzingis, but they also might try to see if they could get a younger, healthier player in a sign-and-trade.

Murphy, for instance, is due to make $27 million next season and is signed for two more seasons after that at $29 million and $31 million.

Could the Warriors get under the tax line and use the NTPMLE for somebody other than LeBron? Yes, they definitely could. But this isn’t a watershed free-agent class, and again, the Warriors would only have $15.1 million to bid (unless it involves Porzingis or Draymond in a sign-and-trade). At that price point, the pickings get pretty slim.

Keon Ellis maybe? John Collins? Coby White? No, none of those guys would have anything like a LeBron impact on this season.

I could see Dunleavy trying to jump into any potential Giannis Antetokounmpo multi-team trade whirlwind and pick off a solid player or two, maybe by offering a future first-round pick; but he won’t be the only GM trying to do that.

We know that free agents are always attracted to the prospect of playing with Curry. Even last summer, Al Horford picked the Warriors largely for a chance to go for a title with No. 30.

What if the Warriors could sell the prospect of playing with both Curry and LeBron? There definitely would be some interest. And if they land LeBron, I think the Warriors would be more interested in adding older players for one big run — like they did to finish up the 2021-22 title-winning roster with Otto Porter Jr. and Nemanja Bjelica — than they would be without LBJ.

Possible veteran options at low-market prices: Detroit’s Kevin Huerter, Atlanta’s Gabe Vincent, the Clippers’ Nic Batum, Phoenix’s Amir Coffey. And in a yes-LBJ universe, I think the Warriors would be more likely to bring back familiar faces like De’Anthony Melton, Gary Payton II, and Pat Spencer.

If the Warriors don’t get LeBron, how aggressive might they get on the trade market? Unless it’s for Murphy, I don’t think Dunleavy would be very interested in trading future first-round picks, because middle-rung selections are a lot more valuable after the NBA’s recent lottery reforms.

They’ll still need players to fill roster spots, with or without LBJ, of course. Dunleavy emphasized that they currently only have four players signed and presumed healthy enough to start camp in the fall — Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos, and Will Richard.

But if they don’t get LeBron, it’s pretty logical that the Warriors would be much less likely to add older or injury-prone players to fill out next season’s roster.

Dunleavy said it multiple times in his last media appearance several weeks ago and he said it with even more emphasis on Wednesday: The Warriors can jump up the standings without major roster upheaval if they simply are more careful with the ball than they’ve been in recent seasons.

This is me, not him: One of the reasons the Warriors have turned the ball so much has been the lack of a reliable secondary ballhandler to punish defenses when they trick things up against Curry.

Hmm, what if LeBron was a secondary or even primary ballhandler with Curry on the court, and with Draymond and Butler, too? Yeah, that might work. Even in their ancient days, those guys should be able to dribble and pass and cut and just run the offense with some Hall of Fame telepathy.

Yeah, the Warriors should want LeBron, though they could put together a very solid offseason without him. Sure, LeBron could be very content in the Bay Area playing with Curry for one grand season, though he has other good options.

Neither side desperately needs the other. It’s very easy to picture both sides taking other reasonable paths. That’s what makes this union less likely than some other scenarios. It’s also what could make it pretty perfect.