The weather pattern, which typically occurs only two to three times a decade, is forming in the Pacific Ocean and has been widely forecast by scientists, including those at the U.K. Met Office and NASA in the U.S.

The warning comes as sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific have risen quickly in recent weeks, crossing the threshold used to identify the onset of El Nino conditions.

Chris Brierley, professor of climate science at University College London, told The Independent that forecasts clearly point to a major El Nino event, adding that whether it qualifies as a "Godzilla" El Nino "doesn't really matter to someone who's suffering the impacts of it."

On May 7, Grace Fu, Singapore’s Minister for Sustainability and the Environment, warned that a super El Nino could trigger more forest fires and worsen haze across Southeast Asia later in 2026, according to The Straits Times.

"South-east Asia faces a perfect storm caused by a double whammy of geopolitical developments and climate change, which have severe implications for the region’s agri-commodity sector," Fu said.

A worker shields himself from the scorching sun at a construction site in HCMC, April 9, 2024 when the outdoor temperature rises to 41 degrees Celsius. Photo by VnExpress/Quynh Tran

The warning comes as countries such as Malaysia and Thailand are already facing intense heatwaves. In early May, Anwar Ibrahim announced cloud-seeding operations to trigger rain in the drought-hit northern rice-growing region of peninsular Malaysia.

El Nino usually brings hotter and drier weather to Southeast Asia, damaging crops, straining water supplies and increasing the risk of forest fires. But experts said the same heat can also intensify rainfall, making sudden downpours more dangerous and increasing the risk of localized flooding even during an otherwise dry season.

Andy Smith, chief operating officer of Fathom, a company that analyzes climate and water-related risks, told the South China Morning Post that hotter conditions fuel heavier storms and more intense rainfall, putting pressure on drainage systems and threatening key crops such as rice and palm oil across the Asia-Pacific.

He said Southeast Asian countries need stronger water conservation planning, as erratic weather can continue beyond the usual May-to-October monsoon season.

He added that strong El Nino events are often followed by severe flooding when wetter conditions return and rainfall becomes more intense. He said this pattern of drought followed by floods has repeatedly affected Southeast Asia, including in 1997, 2015 and 2016, making it one of the world’s most flood-exposed regions.

Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have also made emerging economies more vulnerable to climate shocks by driving up oil and gas prices and raising import costs through shipping disruptions.

"Together, these pressures leave governments and households less able to absorb climate shocks than during previous El Nino cycles," said Rafikareff Rafisura, economic affairs officer at the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.