The rise and fall of agent civilizations - 惯性聚合

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Dwarkesh Podcast

AI researchers debate how close we are to recursive self-improvement Pretraining progress is mostly coming from data Ajeya Cotra – Inside the OpenAI agent swarm that hacked Hugging Face The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations Dylan Patel – Anthropic & OpenAI will have most of the world’s compute by 2028 Ryan Greenblatt – Human level AIs might build runaway superintelligences by 2032 8 Predictions for the Era of Continual Learning Why smarter AI models could drive up compute prices 10x Why compute might get 10x more expensive in coming years Adam Brown – Einstein's happiest thought: General Relativity from scratch The Winning Essays for the Big Questions About AI Grant Sanderson – AI and the future of math The next big breakthrough will be AIs learning on the job The data black hole at the center of AI Ada Palmer – Machiavelli is the most misunderstood thinker of all time The sample efficiency black hole Alex Imas and Phil Trammell – What remains scarce after AGI? Reiner Pope – Chip design from the bottom up The mistake of conflating intelligence and power Notes on pretraining parallelisms and failed training runs. RLVR might be disproportionately bad at science Eric Jang – Building AlphaGo from scratch David Reich – Why the Bronze Age was an inflection point in human evolution Reiner Pope – The math behind how LLMs are trained and served More open questions about AI Blog prize for big questions about AI Jensen Huang – TPU competition, why we should sell chips to China, & Nvidia’s supply chain moat What I learned this week - Can distillation be stopped, Mythos and the cybersecurity equilibrium, Pipeline RL Michael Nielsen – How science actually progresses Terence Tao – Kepler, Newton, and the true nature of mathematical discovery

The rise and fall of agent civilizations

Dwarkesh Patel · 2026-09-01 · via Dwarkesh Podcast

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