On Wednesday, the Trump administration finally let the cat out of the bag that Operation Epic Fury, America’s war on Iran, has burned through $25 billion so far. But that is just the tip of the iceberg. The White House has already requested a supplemental budget of $200 billion for its war on Iran.
The inventory math is brutal. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) finds that in Iran alone, the United States burned through 45% of its Precision Strike Missile stockpile, half of its THAAD interceptors, nearly half of its Patriot PAC-3 inventory, roughly 30% of its Tomahawks, and more than 20% of its long-range JASSMs.
That is just one war. Add Ukraine, where, since 2022, the United States has shipped roughly one-third of its Javelin inventory, one-quarter of its Stinger stockpile, more than two million 155mm artillery rounds, and thousands of GMLRS rockets. The combined drain is what the Pentagon’s own internal assessments now describe as a “near-term risk” of running out of ammunition.
The fact that the weapons cupboard is bare is one thing. What is rarely reported is the fact that it will not be restocked without Beijing’s approval.
Leave Ukraine aside. Forget the Javelins, the Stingers, the GMLRS rockets, and the two million artillery rounds that were used in Ukraine. Setting Ukraine aside, consider four weapons that the United States just burned through in Iran, and the critical material required for each — which flows almost exclusively through China.
Tomahawk cruise missile. The United States burned through over 1,000 Tomahawks in Iran — ten years’ worth of production. Each one’s fin actuators run on samarium-cobalt magnets. China mines and refines 99% of the world’s samarium and placed it under export licensing on April 4, 2025. To rebuild the inventory, Raytheon must turn to Beijing for samarium.
Patriot PAC-3 interceptor. The seeker uses samarium-cobalt (SmCo) to slew its guidance head; the radar’s traveling-wave tubes use SmCo to focus the microwave beam; yttrium-iron-garnet phase shifters tune the array. Replenishing the 1,200-plus interceptors expended in Iran requires roughly 1.2 to 2.4 tons of high-temperature SmCo, plus yttrium oxide. Between 2020 and 2023, China supplied 93% of U.S. yttrium imports.
JASSM-ER stealth cruise missile. The fin servos and seeker run on neodymium-iron-boron magnets (NdFB) doped with dysprosium and terbium for thermal stability. Strip out the heavy rare earths, and the magnet demagnetizes in flight. Roughly 1,100 missiles expended translates to between 1.5 and 3 tons of NdFeB feedstock. China refines the vast majority of the world’s dysprosium and terbium.
F-35 Lightning II. For a decade, the Department of Defense itself has repeated that each F-35 contains 920 pounds of rare earths. The strategically critical content is the high-temperature SmCo and dysprosium-doped NdFeB in the engine actuators, electric drives, and radar. These are precisely the materials Beijing has placed under license.
Across these four weapon systems, the back-of-the-envelope replenishment requirement is between five and ten metric tons of finished defense-grade rare earth magnets, more than 95% of which will arrive from the People’s Republic of China.
China holds all the cards and knows how to play them. Gallium and germanium controls came in August 2023. Antimony controls came in August 2024, with a full ban of shipments to the United States in December 2024. As a result, antimony prices surged by 134%. Tungsten restrictions were imposed in February 2025; the price skyrocketed by over 557% per metric ton. Then MOFCOM Announcement No. 18 of April 4, 2025, placed seven medium and heavy rare earths under discretionary licensing. Chinese rare-earth magnet exports were curtailed by 74% the following month. In October 2025, Beijing extended the regime extraterritorially to any product, anywhere in the world, containing as little as 0.1% of Chinese-origin rare earths.
This brings us to May 14, 2026, when President Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. Not surprisingly, critical materials sit at the top of the meeting’s agenda. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated in early April that the goal of the meeting is “to ensure we can continue to get rare earths from the Chinese.”
There is only one thing worse than being unprepared for the war you started. It is being unprepared for the next one, because your adversary controls the periodic table.
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