Good morning. CFOs are facing a familiar list of risks in 2026: geopolitics, inflation, pricing pressure, and uncertainty about how much higher costs customers can absorb. But according to Stephen Philipson, U.S. Bank vice chair and head of wealth, corporate, commercial and institutional banking, the bigger story is how finance chiefs are responding.
“It feels like the CFO is much more equipped to juggle multiple tasks and sometimes what can seem like competing priorities,” Philipson told me.
That balancing act is reflected in the “U.S. Bank CFO Insight Report,” based on a survey (conducted after the start of the Iran war) of 1,000 senior finance leaders at U.S. businesses with at least $100 million in annual revenue. Among the findings: Thirty percent of respondents work for a business that generates at least $2 billion annually, and finance leaders as a whole ranked geopolitical tension and war as their top risk, at 35%, followed by high inflation, at 34%.
Short-term optimism has cooled. Just 36% of finance leaders have a positive outlook for the U.S. economy over the next 12 months, down from 42% in mid-2024, while 58% remain positive over a three-year horizon. That split mirrors a tension Philipson sees across the C-suite: Companies are still planning for growth, but they are watching how much pricing pressure customers can bear.
Nearly half of finance leaders say it is becoming harder to pass cost pressures on to customers. Even so, companies plan to pass through 55% of cost increases on average, up from 50% over the past 12 months. Philipson said this may be sustainable only if today’s pressures, including elevated oil prices, eventually ease.
“The longer they stay elevated, the more challenging it’s going to be,” he said, noting that companies are cautious in the near term but still expect conditions to eventually stabilize.
The result is a more complex environment in which pricing power is no longer a given. CFOs must protect margins without assuming they can push every increase downstream.
Still, CFOs are not retreating into defense mode. Cost-cutting remains their top priority, at 39%. However, revenue growth jumped to No. 2, at 31%, after ranking seventh in mid-2024.
“It’s much more of an ‘and’ mindset, as opposed to an ‘or’ mindset,” Philipson said.
That mentality is also showing up in dealmaking. Nearly half of respondents (49%) said they are likely to make acquisitions in the next 12 months. At the same time, 71% have delayed or scaled back at least one major investment project, while only 12% canceled one outright.
Philipson sees that as evidence that companies have become more adaptable after Covid, tariffs, and repeated economic shocks. Larger companies, he noted, are better positioned to absorb risk due to scale, diversification, and access to tools such as hedging and supply-chain flexibility.
AI is another area where CFOs are shifting from experimentation to accountability. Finance leaders are tracking ROI on 41% of AI investments. Among the investments with returns measured, 47% are generating a positive return.
“We’re kind of shifting from the experimentation stage of AI to the accountability stage,” Philipson said.
The takeaway? CFOs are cautious but still moving forward.
“You can’t freeze and be paralyzed by volatility,” Philipson said. “You need to keep moving forward and adapt.”
Sheryl Estrada
sheryl.estrada@fortune.com
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