Contract signings rose 4.5% year-over-year in April—its strongest reading in three years—and new listings hit their highest level since 2022, according to Realtor.com’s Spring 2026 Housing Market Progress Report published Thursday.

For three straight springs, mortgage rates, a housing affordability crisis, tariffs, inflation, and more have rattled buyers. Meanwhile, sellers held onto pandemic-era price expectations, leaving them unwilling to let go of their home for less than they thought it was worth. 

But now, both buyer and seller metrics are moving in the right direction since mortgage rates started surging from the sub-3% pandemic-era lows to the 6%-7% range today. And a lot of it is thanks to growing popularity in the Midwest housing market, which is proving more affordable for many Americans. 

Of the 50 largest U.S. metros, 21 saw both new listings and contract signings rise year over year, and the Midwest swept the leaderboard. Kansas City led with new listings up 12.5% and signings up 20.7%. Louisville followed at 13.6% and 18.9%, respectively, then Indianapolis (14.7%, 6.6%), Columbus (8.0%, 7.9%), and Cincinnati (10.8%, 4.7%).

“For the first time in three years, we’re seeing contract signing growth that genuinely outpaces the trend of the recent past,” Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com, said in the report. “Buyers have been sidelined, but they haven’t disappeared—they’ve simply been waiting for the right conditions. In the metros where sellers have come to market with realistic prices, buyers are showing up.”

Why the Midwest is winning the housing market

Simply put, the Sunbelt is losing its pandemic-era steam. Working professionals flocked to the sunny beaches of Florida when remote work became an option. But that popularity only made the housing market there more competitive and, therefore, more expensive. 

Now the Midwest is having its moment as more Americans grapple with a widespread affordability crisis due to tariffs, inflation, and stagnant wages. The price points in the Midwest make more sense for people and don’t feel as far out of reach as homes in coastal cities like Miami, where home values are a scorching $580,000, and in New York City, where the average home value sits at nearly $900,000. 

But just outside Detroit, you can buy a house for just $158,000, and other Michigan and Wisconsin cities offer a much more comfortable range of about $300,000 to $400,000.

“Midwest cities and lesser-known places in Florida are having a moment—and affordability is the reason,” Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan wrote in another recent report. “Many of these neighborhoods sit just outside major hubs like Milwaukee, Chicago, and Tampa, hitting a sweet spot: lower cost of living without giving up access to highly rated schools, shopping, and dining. They have the convenience of big cities without the big-city price tags.”

Data from the American Enterprise Institute shared with Fortune’s Senior Editor-at-Large Shawn Tully earlier this year named Kansas City the country’s biggest home price appreciation winner. 

“Homebuyers are looking to live in these more affordable cities,” AEI codirector Ed Pinto told Fortune. 

To be sure, the Midwest’s reign may not be permanent. 

“Eventually, once the hotspots are back to more normal levels,” Pinto added, “they’ll come to the fore again because people want to move there. The Sunbelt is always going to be the Sunbelt.”

Las Vegas and Tampa stay stuck—but Austin’s correction is finally working

While the Midwest housing market is waking up, others are slowing down. 

Las Vegas contract signings are down 7.4% year-to-date, and Tampa is down 3.1%, with days-on-market in both metros climbing more than a week year-over-year, the Realtor.com data released Thursday shows. Both have been swamped with inventory: Tampa’s new listings are down 12.2% so far this year, a sign that sellers are pulling back rather than competing on price. Redfin has also recently noted how Florida and Texas are the biggest losers in this housing cycle, with every major Sun Belt metro Redfin tracks now a buyer’s market.

But in some of the once-overheated metros, price corrections have followed. Austin, where asking prices per square foot have fallen 7.7% year over year—the steepest decline among the top 50 metros—saw contract signings jump 7.6% even as new listings dropped 3.5%, according to the Realtor.com data. Phoenix (-0.4% listings, +8.1% signings) and Jacksonville (-9.5%, +5.2%) followed the same pattern.

“The data suggests buyers are responding—even if new listing activity has flattened,” according to Realtor.com.

But whether spring 2026 turns into a real housing market recovery or just a false start will be settled in May and June, Krimmel said.

“If some resolution to Middle East uncertainty stabilizes mortgage rates and restores consumer confidence, the housing market may finally break out of the lower equilibrium it has occupied since 2022,” he said. “If macro headwinds intensify—through rising rates, reaccelerating inflation, or a deterioration in confidence—the market could face the same fate as 2025, when tariff-related uncertainty stalled what had been a promising early spring.”