On Thursday, the nonpartisan watchdog Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) announced that U.S. debt held by the public, estimated to be $31.27 trillion, officially surpassed the country’s annual GDP of $31.22 trillion in March, basing its analysis on new data released this week by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Rising debt comes with a long list of economic risks, including the threat that the cost of servicing that debt might crowd out other essential government spending. Another consequence would be a deterioration of the country’s once-top tier credit rating, a scenario that could lead to higher borrowing costs and even more constrained government spending. After the CRFB’s announcement, one of the world’s foremost rate-setters warned how close that scenario is to becoming reality.

The U.S.’s credit rating—a measure of a country’s creditworthiness and expected ability to repay debt—risks slipping due to its high debt burden, analysts from Fitch Ratings, a rating agency, warned in a report Thursday. Fitch currently maintains the U.S. at a AA+ rating, having downgraded it from its premier AAA rating in 2023 due to continued political run-ins over the U.S. debt ceiling that repeatedly risked sparking a default on debt.

“Structurally large fiscal deficits will keep the U.S.’s debt burden far above that of other ‘AA’ category sovereigns,” the analysts wrote.

The U.S. remains in AA territory largely thanks to the dollar’s reserve‑currency status, its deep capital markets, and continued prospects pointing at long‑term growth. But the analysts warned that years of fiscal malpractice were a growing constraint on the rating. 

“The U.S.’s ‘AA+’/Stable rating already incorporates a long-running deterioration in governance, particularly in fiscal policymaking,“ analysts wrote. 

Fitch projected a general government deficit amounting to 7.9% of GDP this year and in 2027, largely due to deep tax cuts implemented by the Trump administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act and uncertainty as to whether tariff revenues will be able to plug the hole. The CRFB has previously estimated that President Donald Trump’s signature policy package will add $4.7 trillion to national debt through 2035. Tariffs were expected to plug the debt gap somewhat, but the Supreme Court’s landmark ruling against the bulk of Trump’s tariffs earlier this year could strip the government of $1.7 trillion through 2036, according to the CRFB, which could help place the U.S. on a trajectory of $58 trillion in debt over the next decade.

The country’s deteriorating credit rating comes with real implications for the economy. The importance of a strong credit rating is less about the letter grade itself than what it underpins: low borrowing costs for the federal government, which in turn keeps yields and rates lower across the economy. 

As long as the U.S. can borrow cheaply, the cost of home mortgages, business loans, and corporate bonds tends to stay lower than it would in a country with weaker credit standing. A loss of premier rating status—or a slide into a less reliable tier—would raise the premium investors demand, translating into higher interest payments on the national debt and higher borrowing costs for households.

Fitch isn’t the only agency to have raised concerns about U.S. creditworthiness. Last year, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. from Aaa to Aa1. Aaa is reserved for the highest class of credit, with investors enjoying minimal risk. Wealthy nations including Canada, Australia, and several countries in the EU have this classification. Countries with an Aa1 rating are still considered to have a very low credit risk, but are seen as less stable and more vulnerable to change. Both Moody’s and Fitch’s rating systems are functionally the same.

Moody’s cited growing fiscal deficits and rising interest costs as reasons for the downgrade, a situation the agency did not expect to resolve quickly.

“Over the next decade, we expect larger deficits as entitlement spending rises while government revenue remains broadly flat,” Moody’s analysts wrote. “In turn, persistent, large fiscal deficits will drive the government’s debt and interest burden higher. The U.S.’s fiscal performance is likely to deteriorate relative to its own past and compared to other highly-rated sovereigns.”