“Markets want to believe, and blind faith drives pricing at the moment. The shape of the current war is largely in Iran’s hands. Investors have few insights into Iranian policy making,” UBS’s Paul Donovan advised clients this morning.
At J.P. Morgan, Arun Jain and his team noted that individual traders are buying into the rally. “Retail investors are gradually returning to their pre-conflict buying levels … as hopes build for a resolution to the geopolitical and energy crises, their confidence is reinstated.” Retail traders net bought $8.3 billion in stocks this week, above the 12-month average of $6.6 billion, he said in a note seen by Fortune.
It’s well-known that President Trump can move the stock markets with a single post on social media. The global bond markets, however, are another story. But this chart from Deutsche Bank shows that Trump can shift the yields on government debt, too. The blue bars show the increase in yields on 10-year government bonds across the globe since the war began—indicating that debt investors regarded the war as an increased risk, and wanted to be paid for carrying it. The red crosses show where the yields were yesterday morning, after the White House’s announcement that Operation Epic Fury was “over.”
Driven by concerns about the national security implications of Anthropic’s new “Mythos” AI model, with its ability to identify and exploit cyber security vulnerabilities—as well as broader fears around cyber capabilities and dangerous misuse—the Trump administration is now considering oversight for advanced AI models, Fortune’s Sharon Goldman reports. The policies could include an executive order that would create a government-industry working group to examine how frontier AI systems should be evaluated before release.
The Trump Administration previously positioned itself as the opposite of the Biden White House on AI—criticizing what Trump’s policy advisors saw as burdensome AI safety efforts and embracing an anti-regulation approach. But now it’s taking a hands-on approach to reviewing potentially dangerous new AI models—just like the Biden administration.
The Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) — the Trump administration’s renamed version of the Biden-era United States AI Safety Institute — said it has completed more than 40 evaluations of state-of-the-art models that remain unreleased.
Iran confirmed it is considering the U.S.’s 14-point “memorandum of understanding” for ending the war in the Persian Gulf, the BBC says this morning. Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei was quoted by ISNA as saying, “The American proposal is still being reviewed by Iran and after concluding, it will inform the Pakistani side of its opinion.” However, a spokesperson for the Iranian Parliament's national security commission also demanded the U.S. “surrender” or face “a harsh and regret-inducing response."
President Trump yesterday said the war would be "over quickly." "They [Iran] want to make a deal. We've had very good talks over the last 24 hours and it's very possible that we'll make a deal up there … I think we won."
Those remarks came after another of the president’s threats on Truth Social, which said: “If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.”
The takeaway: Ignore the posturing. The two sides are talking. And the ceasefire officially remains in place.
Jet fuel deadline: The White House is worried about the jet fuel crisis, according to the Wall Street Journal. Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, who is now the president of the lobby group Airlines for America, has personally warned Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that airfares will spike upward if the war doesn’t end soon.
Yes, yes, we all know that the Strait is filled with 1,600 idling tankers holding hundreds of millions of barrels of oil. But what else can’t make it through the blockaded sea passage? This chart from Macquarie’s Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry shows why the world is so stressed out about the conflict.
“Sulfur and sulfuric acid are arguably the most consequential minerals to be disrupted after crude oil and basic energy. Nearly half of all global seaborne sulfur trade passes through the Strait, and sulfuric acid is essential for copper leaching and nickel refining, meaning that any shortage might have effects in mining economies,” the pair said in a recent note.
And note the different types of oil. More than 20% of the world’s jet fuel goes through the Strait, more than fuel oil or diesel. Hence the panic in the airline business.
Vornado CEO Steven Roth ‘shocked that our young mayor would pull this stunt’ and says Zohran Mamdani should know better than to target Ken Griffin - Catherina Gioino
Magnum owns Ben & Jerry’s. Now it’s destroying what made the brand worth buying - David Bronner, Michael Bronner, and Ryan Gellert
After the FDA spent years rejecting flavored vape products, Trump reportedly pressed his FDA commissioner to allow mango and blueberry flavors - Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez
New execs to know across Bath & Body Works, the Ms. Foundation, and Atlanta’s new NWSL team - Emma Hinchliffe
Meet Mark Stevens: The billionaire VC, Nvidia board member, and Giving Pledge signer who just donated $200 million to USC - Sydney Lake
Debris from the White House East Wing demolition was dumped at a nearby public golf course and contains toxic metals, National Park report finds - Sasha Rogelberg
BofA's checking accounts hint at a hot jobs number on Friday
The jobs number—U.S. nonfarm payrolls, to use the official term—is due on Friday and Bank of America suspects it might come in higher than consensus estimates, because BofA customers’ checking accounts saw a sharp increase in the number of paycheck deposits in April.
“Our measure rose sharply to 1.9% year-over-year (YoY) in April, up from 1.4% in March 2026, and accounted for the highest growth in two-and-a-half years,” Michael Tinsley said in a recent research note.
The percentage decline in the number of users willing to pay to use Tinder in Q1, according to a note from J.P. Morgan analyst Cory A. Carpenter and his team. Paying Tinder users have been in decline for months as single folk are increasingly jaded by the online dating experience. However, Tinder’s owner, Match Group, reported that its Q1 2026 revenues were up 4% to $864 million. Tinder revenue per payer was up 7%. Which implies that as Tinder users decline, those who remain are being cajoled into paying more. Heartbreaking!
Read: Epstein's purported suicide note released by judge - Axios
Marco Rubio seeks to mend ties with Pope Leo after Trump row - FT
It’s not just Big Oil. Wind giants welcome profit beats as Iran war spurs energy pivot - CNBC
Putin’s Strongman Image Is Fading as Ukraine Brings War Home to Russia - WSJ
EU Fails to Finalize US Trade Deal, Risking New Tariffs on Cars - Bloomberg
American Express CEO Stephen Squeri admits that clothes are not his strong point. He once showed up at a board meeting wearing a New York Jets shirt, Fortune’s Shawn Tully reports. “Some directors were a bit put off,” Squeri said. “People judged a book by its cover, and my cover wasn’t all that good.” Years earlier, Squeri said, “one fellow manager asked me, ‘Where did you get that suit?’ and I said, ‘I’ve got five more just like it I bought for a couple hundred dollars, total.’” The colleague’s rejoinder: “Therein lies the problem.”
So the head of HR advised him to get a professional makeover. A clothing expert from a fancy store in Connecticut came to Squeri’s New Jersey home to orchestrate a sartorial reengineering. The consultant “goes through my entire closet,” said Squeri. “And I say, ‘How much of this is going to work?’ and he says, ‘None of it.’”
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