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Fortune | FORTUNE

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美國停火條件越寬大,伊朗越懷疑這是為了另一次攻擊的詭計,專家表示 | Fortune
Jason Ma · 2026-05-25 · via Fortune | FORTUNE

伊朗政權可能正在疑惑,與美國延長停火的新興協議是否太過美好而不真實。

儘管與主要方面仍在進行談判,且關鍵細節尚未確定,協議的大致內容包括伊朗重新開放赫爾木茲海峽,並允許船舶通過而不支付通行費,消息來源告訴Axios,作為回報,美國將解除對伊朗港口的海上封鎖,並提供一些制裁緩解,允許德黑蘭公開銷售石油

但最爭議性的問題必須在談判的60天窗口期內解決。這包括伊朗的鈾,以及美國永久終止制裁並釋放伊朗境外的凍結資產,估計達250億美元。

美國也將維持在該區的軍事存在,僅在達成最終協議後才會撤軍,Axios表示。但特朗普仍然會放棄顯著的籌碼。

「這種方法的一個問題在於,決定你將會在後面才處理核問題,而現在放棄對伊朗石油出口的制裁,將會降低,而不是提高,伊朗達成核協議的動機。」反擴散國家安全顧問Eric Brewer在Twitter上說。「此外,將那些制裁與海峽掛鉤,你已經失去在不造成伊朗重新掌控航道這巨大風險下重新實施制裁的能力。」

傳聞美國和伊朗即將延長停火。讓一些共和黨人感到震驚,擔心川普即將放棄太多。

南卡羅來納州的共和黨參議員林德西·格雷厄姆警告,任何有效承認德黑蘭控制該海峽的協議都將代表區域力量平衡的重大轉變,並最終成為以色列的「噩夢」。

同樣地,密西西比州的共和黨參議員羅傑·威克爾表示,60天的延期將是災難性的,並說「行動奇怒行動所取得的任何成就都將徒勞無功!」德州的共和黨參議員泰德·克魯茲也加入批評。

「若所有這些努力的結果是要建立一個伊朗政權——仍然由高喊『為美國而亡』的伊斯蘭主義者運營——現在正獲得十億美元,能夠濃縮鈾&研發核武器,並且對赫爾木茲海峽有實際控制權,那麼這個結果將會是災難性的錯誤,」他在X上發布了這條信息。

儘管美以轟炸摧毀了伊朗的軍事與經濟,德黑蘭仍保有足夠的作戰力,透過飛彈、無人機和快速攻擊快艇維持赫爾木茲海峽的封鎖。

同時,特朗普已暗示無意恢復攻擊並打破停火,同時也縮短了透過海軍戰艦保護油輪以重啟赫爾木茲交通的努力。

由於伊朗攫取全球經濟並使油價即將在幾週內崩盤,它拒絕讓步其大部分要求.

但即使該政權也不確定能否相信美國的提議。因為今年早些時候和去年早些時候的先前談判都以美國轟炸伊朗而告終。

「目前進行的交易看起來對伊朗有利。但德黑蘭並不確信這不是為現在或30天後的戰爭排練」,前美國國務院高級顧問瓦利·納斯爾在Twitter上發布。「事實上,伊朗的條件越寬厚,美國對和平並不認真的疑慮就越大,並且希望在此前發動另一場攻擊前分散伊朗的注意力。」

因此,德黑蘭將會集中精力在美國軍方會讓步的證據上,他補充說,而信任美國將會是一場「賭博」,最終由最高領導人莫塔巴·哈梅內伊來決定。

2026年4月14日,美國海軍陸戰隊第31任務部隊的作戰偵察排一員,在美國中央司令部負責區內進行例行訓練時,開槍。

美國海軍陸戰隊

戰爭研究學會在星期六的一份報告中指出,伊朗的政權認為它是以強勢地位進行談判「由於它在戰爭中的勝利」。

同時,戰爭研究學會__JHSNS_SEG_00ad87cf_30__補充說,伊朗在談判中的主要目標之一是確保對赫爾木茲海峽的主權。

與此同時,美國的海上封鎖並未削弱伊朗的掌控,因為未進出伊朗港口的船舶仍然可以自由通過,即使它們已接受伊斯蘭革命衛隊提出的條件。

世界不能再等待這條海峽恢復正常,但拖延談判有助於伊朗實際上的控制正常化,ISW 在一份分開的報告中指出了這一點。

「伊朗很可能已意識到這一事實,這是它們拖延談判過程的原因之一,」它說。__JHSNS_SEG_00ad87cf_36__ __JHSNS_SEG_00ad87cf_37__「美國和世界不應允伊朗在此關鍵國際航道強加一個新現實。如果談判未能迅速達成協議,恢復過往國際公認的通航方案,那麼不幸地,將不得不採取武力行動。」