Days after armed groups launched large-scale attacks on Malian Armed Forces’ bases, military ruler Assimi Goita on Tuesday said the situation was “under control”, with Russian security forces providing air support to prevent rebels from capturing key positions, including the presidential palace in capital Bamako.

But the security situation in the West African nation remains volatile, as the government has struggled to take back control of towns and cities from Tuareg and al-Qaeda-linked fighters, who have pledged to launch a total siege of Mali’s capital.

Saturday’s massive coordinated offensive in multiple cities, including Bamako, stunned the region. Mali’s Defence Minister Sadio Camara was killed and several cities, including the northern city of Kidal, were seized by the fighters. The Malian military government said it killed more than 200 attackers.

Analysts are questioning the effectiveness of Bamako’s military partnership with Russia after reports emerged that Russian forces withdrew from the northern city of Kidal. Mercenary fighters under the Russian government-owned Africa Corps group had been fighting alongside the Malian military in Kidal.

On Monday, Africa Corps confirmed that its forces had withdrawn from Kidal, but stated that the decision was made jointly with the Malian government.

Conflict analysts and Malians on social media are now questioning the strength of Russian defence support to Sahel countries, including military-led Burkina Faso and Niger, which have seen a surge in armed attacks in recent years.

The Africa Corps, a Russian Defence Ministry unit that replaced the private Wagner Group, was deployed in Mali after Goita asked French forces to withdraw in 2022. France had previously stationed more than 4,000 troops in the region.

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in 2023 amid a deteriorating security situation after withdrawing from the regional Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) bloc, which criticised coups in the Sahel nations.

Here’s what we know about the Russian fighters in Mali and the questions many are now asking:

What happened to Russian fighters in the Mali attacks?

Saturday’s attacks were conducted jointly by the separatist, Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM).

The groups attacked several cities: Kidal, Gao, Sevare and Kati – sites of major military bases.

Mali has been experiencing armed violence since 2012. Some 2,000 Russian fighters have been present in the country since 2021, following the exit of thousands of French and United Nations troops.

The Russians were originally deployed under the Wagner paramilitary group; however, after the death of the group’s founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in 2023, it was renamed Africa Corps and placed directly under the Russian Ministry of Defence.

Many Wagner fighters remained as part of the Africa Corps. The major difference on the ground, analysts say, has been the combat approach.

Where Wagner fighters were more aggressive and willing to take risks, Africa Corps has been more defensive.

Russian fighters, the Malian army and the armed groups are all accused of targeting civilians in what rights groups say could amount to war crimes.

Amid the attacks on Saturday, Russian fighters were seen driving out of seized Kidal in trucks, reportedly after negotiating their exit through the mediation of neighbouring Algeria.

Some Malian soldiers were disarmed by the fighters and captured. Mali’s military has not revealed how many troops are prisoners.

What is the Russian government saying?

In a Telegram statement on Monday, Africa Corps said its decision to withdraw was taken with Bamako.

“In accordance with a joint decision by the leadership of the Republic of Mali, units of the African Corps that were stationed and engaged in combat in the town of ‌Kidal ⁠have withdrawn from the area alongside Malian Army personnel.”

The statement continued: “Wounded servicemen and heavy equipment were evacuated first. Personnel continue to carry out their assigned combat mission. The situation in ⁠the Republic of Mali remains difficult.”

Africa Corps also claimed it provided air support to Malian troops and helped hamper attacks on the presidential palace in Bamako. The Russian Defence Ministry similarly said some 12,000 fighters had attacked on Saturday, and said without proof that they were trained by Ukrainian and European mercenaries.

The Malian military has not commented on the claims that Russia’s withdrawal was a joint decision.

The regional governor in Kidal had warned the Russian mercenaries three days ahead of the attack, but “they did nothing”, French publication RFI reported a senior Malian official as saying. Africa Corps may have negotiated their exit in advance, the official added.

How has the attack affected Russia’s standing in the Sahel?

When the French began exiting in 2021, Russia painted itself as a non-colonial liberating force in the Sahel as mercenaries arrived in the region.

Analysts say Moscow has long attempted to use Wagner, and later, Africa Corps, as a tool to influence African governments. Russian fighters have long been present in the Central African Republic, and reportedly also in Libya and Sudan.

In Mali’s Sahel neighbours, Niger and Burkina Faso, where armed violence by al-Qaeda and ISIL-affiliated groups has spilled over, Africa Corps members are present to a lesser degree, and in a more supervisory role.

There are about 100 Russian soldiers in Niger and between 100 and 300 in Burkina Faso.

Wagner had mixed results in Mali, however, its mercenaries were credited with helping to push back fighters and establishing government control in the Tuareg stronghold of Kidal in 2023.

However, the daring Saturday attacks, the seizure of Kidal and the killing of Defence Minister Camara – who helped build the Russia partnership – have dealt a blow to Russia’s Sahel campaign, analysts say.

Military leader Goita emerged for the first time after the attacks in a video on Tuesday after speculation about his own wellbeing. He did not mention the Russian fighters but defiantly said: “Security measures are stepped up … and security operations are ongoing.”

“Africa Corps has really lost credibility,” Ulf Laessing, Bamako-based West Africa programme lead at the Konrad-Adenauer Stiftung think tank, told Al Jazeera.

“They didn’t put up a fight on Saturday and have left Kidal, which is a highly symbolic Tuareg stronghold … they left behind a lot of equipment, a whole drone station. This gives the impression that they don’t really care – but they were probably outnumbered.”

Remaining Malian troops and civilian officials have reportedly now left Kidal for Gao, the largest city in the north.

It is unclear what position the Russians will attempt to guard now, as JNIM announced a siege on Bamako. Russia’s Defence Ministry claims operations against the armed groups are continuing, and released videos appearing to show Africa Corps targeting fighter positions.

However, that has not cleared the doubt in many minds regarding Russia’s effectiveness in the region.

“Russia will struggle to attract new clients for the Africa Corps because they just didn’t do their job – it’s reputational damage, what has happened,” Laessing said.