Ukraine’s disruption of Russian battlefield logistics escalated in the past week, with dramatic attacks on Russian-occupied Crimea and satellite communications centres near Moscow – two regions where Russia is supposedly prioritising air defence.

In response to Ukrainian attacks deep inside the Russian heartland this year, Russia had relocated air defence systems from the regions to Moscow and the Kerch Bridge, which connects Crimea to the Russian mainland, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Tuesday.

“These two perimeters are the ones the Russians have been ordered to defend at the expense of weakening other directions,” he said.

The Kremlin had moved “hundreds of launchers for S-400, S-500, and Pantsir (missile launch) systems to the Moscow region alone”, Zelenskyy said, and another 90 to Valdai, a resort 450km (280 miles) north of Moscow where Russian President Vladimir Putin and much of the Russian elite are said to go on retreat.

“In all other regions of Russia, there are only a few launchers each,” Zelenskyy said.

Ukraine appeared to take advantage of those choices when it aimed at two Russian military satellite communication centres on June 22.

Ukraine’s General Staff said the Vladimir Space Communications Centre, 200km (125 miles) east of Moscow, had “critically damaged” its main, 25-metre (82ft) parabolic antenna, and a strike on the Dubna Space Communications Centre 100km (60 miles) north of Moscow on the same day had damaged its 32-metre (105ft) parabolic antenna.

In both cases, buildings housing electronic hardware were also damaged.

Ukraine’s General Staff said Russia relies on satellite feeds from the two centres to spy on Ukrainian manoeuvres and coordinate Russian forces.

In Crimea, Ukraine interrupted fuel supply, caused power outages and cut off transport between the peninsula and the Russian mainland on Sunday.

Ukraine used long-range drones to simultaneously hit two important oil facilities on either side of the Kerch Strait, which separates Crimea from Russia – the oil terminal in Kerch on Crimea and the port of Kavkaz in Russia. The facilities are used to ferry fuel to the Russian front lines. Geolocated footage showed oil storage facilities in Kerch and supply ferries in Kavkaz on fire.

Ukraine managed to disable four S-400 missile complexes and two Pantsir systems to strike Kerch, which is less than 1km (0.6 miles) from the heavily defended Kerch Bridge.

Ukraine also struck electricity plants, causing power cuts in Sevastopol, Yevpatoria and other parts of Crimea on Sunday and Wednesday.

Crimean occupation Governor Sergey Aksyonov immediately suspended fuel sales to all but state services.

In Sevastopol, the largest Crimean city, fuel had already been rationed to 20 litres (5 gallons) per week for private individuals. Sevastopol also cancelled ferry services, banned outdoor gatherings and switched off street lighting.

Kyiv’s forces started attacking Crimea in the summer of 2023, after Russia began using it as a base from which to launch air attacks, missiles and drones against Ukraine.

They succeeded in pushing back the Russian navy and air force, and advertised Crimea as “a graveyard” for Russian air defence systems.

This year, Ukraine launched an air campaign to weaken the Russian ability to deliver force to the front line by hobbling supplies of weapons, fuel and other supplies.

Ukraine ‘succeeded’

Russian independent newspaper Meduza plotted 270 attacks on Russian trucks and logistics centres this year, and found a stark difference in range in the past two months.

“The Ukrainian Armed Forces succeeded in changing what had remained unchanged for years. The median attack depth increased from several kilometres to several tens of kilometres,” Meduza wrote.

There are more attacks than can be geolocated, however.

French open-source analyst Clement Molin tallied 500 separate attacks between May 1 and June 18, using videos posted online.

Ukraine initially focused these attacks on the highways running through its southern occupied regions of Zaporizhia and Kherson. It has since shifted focus to Donetsk in the east and Crimea further south, according to Meduza’s analysis.

Several analysts agree with Ukraine’s own assessment that May was Russia’s worst month for territorial gains since the last months of 2023.

One Ukrainian commander serving near Huliaipole said Russian soldiers were forced to carry supplies on foot for the last 50km (30 miles) to the front line, because his unit had made it impossible to use even motorcycles.

Russian officials have tried to deny any difficulty in the war effort.

Putin told a news conference this week that troops were “advancing on all fronts” and were “practically reaching” Kostiantynivka, the southernmost of four “fortress cities” in Donetsk, where Ukraine has spent years preparing for battle.

Ukraine acknowledges that Russian soldiers have infiltrated Kostiantynivka but denies the city is close to falling.

Ukrainian commander Yuriy Madyar, who serves on the Kostiantynivka front, said his 19th Army Corps was beginning to push Russian infiltrators out, and that the ratio of losses was three Ukrainians to 53 Russians.

Long-range attacks

Ukraine has also been increasing its range inside Russia this year, aiming to destroy refineries and weapons factories.

On June 21, it struck the Tyumen refinery in Western Siberia, 2,070km (1,290 miles) from Ukraine. Zelenskyy said the operation had been undertaken by new types of drones made by Fire Point, a pioneering Ukrainian company. “They will reach 3,000 plus,” he told a telethon.

“We will go further, because we understand where their military factories, oil bases, gas storage facilities, etc, are located.”

On June 22, Ukrainian drones struck a plant in Voronezh that makes components for Russian cruise missiles and Pantsir air defence systems.

On Wednesday, Ukraine’s drones hit a gas processing plant in Orenburg, 1,200km (750 miles) from Ukraine. The plant is reportedly responsible for 60 percent of the gas processed by state giant Gazprom, and makes helium, used in rocket engines, and ethane, used in the wire insulation of aircraft.

Belarus in the war?

Ukraine’s ability to hit near and far from the front line has, according to reports, produced a tactical victory without a shot being fired.

Its northern neighbour, Belarus, reportedly removed or deactivated four transponders on its territory that had been used to direct drones launched in Russia towards Ukrainian cities.

Zelenskyy said the transponders had not been active since June 22, three days after he publicly warned Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko that “if he doesn’t do it, we will do it.”

The move by Belarus suggested that Kyiv’s threats were winning over Moscow’s.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Putin threatened to cut financial aid to Minsk if Belarus did not allow Russian drones to be launched from its soil. According to the newspaper, Moscow’s strategy involves embroiling Belarus in the war to open a northern front and relieve its deadlocked offensive in Donetsk.