Ethiopia will hold its seventh national election on June 1. The National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) gave a green light for the vote to proceed despite continuing internal conflicts and human rights abuses.

While it is important to keep the momentum of democratic transition going, the current situation in the country does not provide conducive conditions for free, fair, and credible elections.

Conflict and violence

When Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came into power in 2018, there was significant optimism that the country would transition to constitutional democracy. While some were cautious, most Ethiopians were enthusiastic about the political change that came after a series of bloody political protests that crippled the then-authoritarian government of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF).

Indeed, after a few months of coming to power, Prime Minister Abiy delivered on many fronts. Political prisoners, journalists and activists who were imprisoned unjustly were released. Repressive laws, including the infamous “anti-terrorism” law, the media law, the electoral law and other legislation, were amended. Abiy also normalised relations with Eritrea, a development that ultimately earned him the Nobel Peace Prize and broad international acclaim.

But these reforms were soon overshadowed by internal conflict. In 2020, war erupted between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and many rights groups concluded that government forces were implicated in massive and serious human rights violations.

Similarly, the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia established by the United Nations confirmed that war crimes and crimes against humanity, including mass murder, sexual violence and torture, were committed. Despite these findings, no concrete steps were taken to ensure accountability for the violations.

The Pretoria Peace Agreement, signed in November 2022, helped secure a cessation of hostilities and brought to an end the devastating conflict. However, fears of renewed violence are growing after the TPLF recently ousted the interim Tigray administration that had been appointed by the federal government.

Similarly, the conflict that began in the Amhara region in 2023 between federal forces and Fano militias has resulted in widespread and serious human rights violations, including war crimes and crimes against humanity, which continue unabated. For instance, in January 2024, government soldiers carried out a massacre in the town of Merawi in Gojam province; at least 89 civilians were taken from their homes, rounded up, and executed, as reported by Human Rights Watch.

Moreover, drone strikes in several incidents across Gojam, Wollo, and Shewa areas of the Amhara region have resulted in significant civilian casualties, further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and deepening concerns about the conduct of hostilities.

Conflict has also persisted in Oromia region, where federal forces are clashing with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) amid continuing instability. In April 2024, Bate Urgessa, a leader in the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and an outspoken critic of the government, was killed in the town of Meki in the Oromia region. The precise circumstances surrounding his death, including the reasons he may have been targeted, remain unclear.

Growing repression

In recent years, the governing Prosperity Party has increasingly consolidated authoritarian rule by rolling back the legal and political reforms it introduced and resorting to extensive autocratic control.

The state of emergency imposed at the outbreak of the conflict in the Amhara region had a chilling effect, further eroding the exercise of fundamental human rights and democratic freedoms.

Political repression and the targeting of opposition members have continued unabated, with reports documenting the killings of political opponents.

The government has been accused of relying on covert security structures, such as the Koree Nageenyaa (“Security Committee”), which have reportedly committed serious human rights violations, including extrajudicial killings, torture, and arbitrary detention.

Rights groups also indicate increasing surveillance, intimidation and harassment of journalists, which has forced many of them into exile. A report by the Committee to Protect Journalists shows that since 2020, at least 54 journalists have been forced to leave their country because of the persecution they faced by government agents. A number of journalists, including Meskerem Abera, Dawit Begashaw, and Gobeze Sisay, were arrested under frivolous charges and remain in prison.

Prominent human rights defenders have also been forced into exile as a result of the government’s repressive measures. Yared Hailemariam, the head of Ethiopian Human Rights Defenders and one of the country’s most prominent human rights advocates, was compelled to seek refuge abroad. Similarly, Dan Yirga, the head of the Ethiopian Human Rights Council, was also forced to flee the country.

Ethiopia’s human rights crisis has inevitably had an impact on electoral politics. In a landmark 2024 decision on electoral democracy, the African Union’s rights body, the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights, found multiple human rights violations in the context of the 2015 elections in Ethiopia. Although they took place before the Prosperity Party took power, the commission noted that the laws put in place in recent years to protect electoral rights should be more effectively implemented.

More recently, 41 countries issued a statement on March 2 about serious human rights concerns in Ethiopia and called for accountability, noting “the stalled transitional justice process” and “the need for its full and swift implementation”.

Without respect for fundamental freedoms, including freedom of expression, freedom of assembly, and the right to participate in the democratic process, merely casting ballots cannot ensure free, fair, and credible elections.

Ethiopia’s human rights, political, and security situation should be a matter of concern for the international community beyond the present election cycle. It is the second most populous country in Africa and has the ninth largest economy on the continent. Instability and violence in the country could have a negative impact across East Africa.

On the other hand, if the right political and economic policies are put in place, Ethiopia’s young and educated population could become a major driver of the country’s economic growth and regional prosperity.

The international community should exert maximum pressure to ensure that the government of Ethiopia undertakes meaningful reforms and adopts confidence-building measures, including advancing national reconciliation, engaging in political negotiations, releasing political prisoners, and respecting fundamental freedoms of expression, assembly, and political participation. All that should go hand in hand with the democratic electoral process.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.