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美伊渐近止战之约:所当知者
2026-05-24 · via Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera

美利坚合众国總統唐納·川普或曰或有可能之约华盛顿与德黑兰之间,以止战月余之事,今“大抵已议”,遂生冀望,谓此区域之纷争,或可稍缓。此乃多国互递外交之辞,纷至沓来,遂有此变。

所拟谅解备忘录(MoU)据报将包括重开霍尔木兹海峡,乃原油與天然氣之要道,亦談美以戰伊朗之戰事,欲正其終始。

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目三則列终

然虽特朗普之言乐观,伊朗之官言大异犹存,尤在霍尔木兹海峡之位、伊朗核之业、及黎巴嫩有德黑兰所扶之众之争。

故,何谓川普之言,何为伊朗之反,何为要害所在?

川普所言何事?

总统于周六在其社交媒体平台Truth Social上言,美、伊及数地国之协议已“大致议定”,其终末之细,将不久而宣之。

“契约为大半议成,惟待美利坚合众国、伊斯兰共和国伊朗及诸国终决,”特朗普书于真理社.

其言所议之契,将复开霍尔木兹海峡,自美以战伊朗,自二月廿八日至今,此海峡实闭于众航。

特朗普称此议为“和平备忘录”,言其议涉沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔、巴基斯坦、土耳其、埃及、约旦及巴林。

特朗普复言与以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡通话,言其“甚佳”。

消息人士向路透社透露,所提议之框架将分阶段展开:正式止战,解困霍尔木兹海峡,并开启三十日谈判窗口,以就持久和平达成更广泛之协议,此协议可续展之。

周六,《纽约时报》报道,草案协议中,伊朗似有“明确承诺”,愿弃其高浓缩铀储备。

报载,引无名美利坚官员二名,言伊朗转移或释此物之详,将于谈判后段议之。

伊兰所言何如?

伊兰官员已确认谈判在即,且略有进益。然则,亦驳特朗普之部分言辞。

德黑兰与华盛顿之盟约,载有止战之略,伊朗半官方塔斯尼姆通讯社报之。美利坚于谈判之际,已弛伊朗石油之禁。

伊兰未尝接纳其核武计划之任何举措,塔斯尼姆补充道,称潜在协议为霍尔木兹海峡相关程序分配三十日,为核武谈判分配六十日。

时,伊朗官媒法尔斯通讯社初日报称,此约可使伊朗掌管霍尔木兹海峡,而特朗普于此要津之论,此水道昔年几为天下油运之五分之一所经,其言实与⁠实相悖。

INTERACTIVE - How many ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz-1778678604

岁在丙申,朔日,伊朗外交部发言人伊斯梅尔·巴格海伊谓最新之议为“框架协议”或称“备忘录”,首立大纲之则,俟细议于卅日至卅六日之间。

“今周之势,渐趋纷争之减,然犹有事宜待调停者。三日四日之间,事态终局,尚待观之,”Baghaei曰。

彼告伊朗之IRNA新闻社,德黑兰之当务之急,在于止战、阻美未来之攻、息黎巴嫩之争。

其要害何在?

霍尔木兹海峡

德黑兰与华盛顿之纷争,大者在于霍尔木兹海峡,此乃全球要冲之航路,沟通波斯湾与阿拉伯海。战起之前,寰宇五分之一之石油及液化天然气(LNG),皆由此海峡运往。

伊兰坚持其主权于水道,此水道在伊兰与阿曼之领海内,非属国际水域。伊兰亦提议征取通行之费,而美利坚则要求航行自由无碍。

自战事既起,伊兰实已闭其海峡,禁绝通行,攻伐船舶,且据报于海中布设水雷。

四月八日停火生效之后数日,美利坚遂行其封锁之策。其海军阻绝伊朗港口,欲迫德黑兰重开此要道,更添谈判之阻。

伊朗核计划

又有要害之题,乃伊兰核武之术,尤重其铀浓缩之积。

美以二国,迫伊朗尽辍铀之富,诘其欲造核器,然未公陈证以佐言。

伊朗坚称其核计划专为民用。德黑兰亦是一九七〇年条约之署名人论核武器不扩散条约(NPT)

乙未年,美利坚合众国从奥巴马总统之世,入《全面综合行动计划》(JCPOA)。其约,伊兰许铢铢铀之精炼,止于三六七之数,远逊于兵器之级;复允国际原子能总署(IAEA)之检视,以证其非求核械。故国际之制于伊兰者,稍弛焉。

然,戊戌岁,其初任之际,川普竟撤美于JCPOA,虽IAEA言伊朗时已恪守其约。

二零二五年三月,现任国家情报局局长Tulsi Gabbard也告于朝堂诸司犹在“度伊朗非造核器”。

可成乎?

伊兰通才、昆西学社共创者特拉伊塔·帕尔西言,虽伊兰美利坚所立之约未含双方重大实质让步,然亦至少示以向更广之约迈进之志。

“谁先眨眼之真伪,待吾辈再历三十日,观其终局方可知。愿此事终不至久延,终能就核问题达成共识。”波斯语译。

复言,未明伊朗是否直受战损赔偿,此乃要务,然谓若禁令得解,核问题得解,则“其事或胜奥巴马之约于二〇一五年”。

他者有言,以色列之默许,实为成约之枢机。

学术世家萨德基言,已致信特朗普,谓区域之众皆愿缔约修好,然讯息时有抵牾。

“吾等见双方既云甚近,复言甚远,且军事之策犹悬案耳,”德黑兰大学世界研究助教萨德基告阿 Jazeera 云。

彼言特朗普之难,在于能否背以色列之利,力推其约,而以色列之报也。欲倾覆其约也.