Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki digs into why Sen. Bill Cassidy faces such a steep uphill climb in Saturday’s Louisiana primary. Plus, we lay out what you need to know before polls close in Nebraska’s primaries tonight.
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— Adam Wollner
The end could come as soon as this Saturday night for Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, one of seven Republican senators who voted to convict President Donald Trump in his January 2021 impeachment trial.
Cassidy is facing two opponents in Saturday’s GOP primary: Rep. Julia Letlow, who is endorsed by Trump, and state Treasurer John Fleming, who’s also a former congressman.
Polls have shown the three clustered close together and, if no one secures an outright majority, the top two will advance to a June 27 runoff. It’s possible that Cassidy will make it to that round. He has poured resources into attacks on Letlow, which have likely helped boost Fleming, who is running on a pro-Trump platform. But even if he manages to secure one of the top two spots this weekend, it’s hard to imagine Cassidy prevailing in June.
The key is a change in Louisiana election law that has turned Saturday’s contest into a closed primary, meaning only registered Republicans may vote. Before this, Louisiana had long conducted “jungle” primaries, with candidates from all parties appearing on the same ballot and the top two vote-getters advancing to a runoff. The shift will have the effect of narrowing the voting universe to committed Republicans, among whom loyalty to Trump runs deep.
Since his vote to convict Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol, Cassidy has been viewed with suspicion and hostility by many of these voters. Meanwhile, the Trump-skeptical independents and Democrats for whom his impeachment vote might be appealing will be forced to the sidelines on Saturday.
In fact, among the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021 and the seven Senate Republicans who voted to convict him, the only three who survived their subsequent elections ran in what amounted to jungle primaries.
Reps. Dan Newhouse of Washington state and David Valadao of California finished in the top two of their 2022 primaries, which were open to all voters and featured candidates from both parties. Each then won in the November general election. (Newhouse is not seeking re-election this year, while Valadao is running for another term.) In Alaska, Sen. Lisa Murkowski was re-elected through a similar system in 2022. But the pro-impeachment Republicans who had to face primaries limited to Republicans voters were either defeated or declined to run again.
There is one notable looming exception: Maine Sen. Susan Collins. She is up for re-election this year and faces no opposition in the Republican primary. Technically, this will not be a closed primary, since independents can participate in Maine. But the real difference is that Collins has managed to avoid drawing a Trump-backed challenger, with even the president calculating that she is the only Republican with a realistic chance of winning a statewide race in blue-leaning Maine.
But Louisiana is a far cry from Maine, and Trump and his allies have no hesitation when it comes to trying to put an end to Cassidy’s career right now.
Before we get to Saturday’s Senate primary in Louisiana (as a reminder, the state’s House primaries were delayed to make way for a new congressional map), there are contests underway today in Nebraska and West Virginia.
The two primaries most of note are taking place in Nebraska. Here’s what to watch when polls close at 9 p.m. ET, courtesy of Alexandra Marquez, Bridget Bowman and Ben Kamisar.
Nebraska’s 2nd District: Democrats are set to choose their nominee for one of their top pick-up opportunities on the board this fall. The Omaha-based 2nd District is one of three seats Republicans won in 2024 that former Vice President Kamala Harris carried. And GOP Rep. Don Bacon is not running for re-election.Local political organizer Denise Powell, who’s more moderate, and state Sen. John Cavanaugh, a progressive, lead the Democratic field in a primary that has attracted more than $5 million in ad spending, according to AdImpact.
The future of Nebraska’s “blue dot” in presidential elections has been a major theme of the race. While Nebraska’s unicameral Legislature is technically nonpartisan, Cavanaugh represents a key vote in the Democratic minority. Powell and her allies say that if he wins in November, Gov. Jim Pillen will appoint a hard-line Republican to replace him, cementing a GOP supermajority that could push changing the state’s Electoral College system to a “winner-take-all” format.
As for the GOP primary, Omaha City Council member Brinker Harding cleared the field.
Nebraska Senate race: After losing to Republican Sen. Deb Fischer by 7 points in 2024, independent Dan Osborn is running again this year, with many Democrats thinking that he will be best positioned to take on GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts in the solidly red state. Today’s primary could determine whether an official Democratic candidate will also be on the ballot.
Two Democrats — Cindy Burbank, a pharmacy technician, and pastor William Forbes — are on the primary ballot. Forbes filed to run for the Senate just before the deadline, and Nebraska Democrats accused him of being a Republican plant, designed to siphon votes from Osborn in the fall.
Forbes, who voted for Trump and attended a training session for conservative candidates, told CNN that he is a lifelong Democrat and that he entered the race because his party hadn’t fielded a candidate.
Burbank told NBC News that she filed to run out of concern that Forbes would pull votes from Osborn. She denied she launched her campaign with the intent to drop out after the primary to allow Osborn to face Ricketts head-on. But Burbank said that she would exit the race if it became clear she didn’t have a path to victory in November and that she would back Osborn in that scenario.
That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.
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