Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today’s edition, Jane C. Timm takes stock of the massive sums of money flowing into Indiana’s state Senate primaries. Plus, Natasha Korecki digs into the early jockeying for the progressive mantle in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries.
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— Adam Wollner
Indiana airwaves have been inundated with nearly $12 million in spending heading into tomorrow’s primary, according to AdImpact, transforming a series of typically sleepy state legislative contests into some of the most heated elections of the cycle.
The major escalation is the result of President Donald Trump endorsing GOP primary challengers to seven incumbent state senators who voted last year against a redistricting plan he lobbied for. Across the entire 2024 election cycle, less than $500,000 was spent on Indiana state Senate ads.
Four times that amount has been spent in just one race this year on an effort to unseat state Sen. Spencer Deery, who faces a challenge from Paula Copenhaver, an aide to Indiana Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith.
The ads across the seven primaries have been remarkably acrimonious. State Sen. Jim Buck, who has served in the state legislature since 1994, is called “old, pathetic, liberal,” in one ad from Hoosier Leadership for America, which is aligned with U.S. Sen. Jim Banks, R-Ind. Buck, 80, is facing his first primary since joining the state Senate in 2008, against Tipton County Commissioner Tracey Powell.
The ads targeting the state senators rarely lead with their vote against the redrawn congressional map that sparked the primary challenges in the first place. For example, Hoosier Leadership PAC has attacked the seven incumbents over a bill related to foreign ownership of farmland.
“Soft on skin, soft on bottoms,” one ad begins, showing a bunny and a roll of toilet paper. Then, the tone shifts and state Sen. Greg Walker’s face appears on a roll of toilet paper. “Soft on China,” the ad continues. “State Sen. Greg Walker betrayed Hoosiers by voting to let Chem China own Hoosier farmland, putting us at risk.”
In fact, Walker and every other member of the state Senate voted to ban certain “foreign adversaries,” including China, from buying farmland. This line of attack misconstrues the vote to seemingly argue that the ban didn’t go far enough.
The bulk of the spending in these contests has come from outside groups aligned with Trump’s candidates. Hoosier Leadership for America has spent nearly $5 million on ads, while another Banks-linked group, American Leadership PAC, has spent more than $3 million. (Both groups are overseen by Andrew Surabian, a top adviser to Donald Trump Jr. and Vice President JD Vance.)
Meanwhile, the seven incumbents facing Trump-endorsed challengers have collectively spent more than $2.6 million on ads as they try to keep their part-time jobs — which come with a base salary of just over $33,000 a year.
Ben Kamisar and Bridget Bowman contributed.
The massive grassroots movement that twice rallied behind a Bernie Sanders presidential bid is facing its most consequential question yet: Who will emerge as its next leader?
With the race for the White House still two years away, fierce behind-the-scenes competition is already underway for the voters, operatives and organizational muscle that powered Sanders’ insurgent campaigns. The outcome may well determine whether the hard left can mount a serious challenge for the Democratic nomination or whether the progressive lane fractures before the race even begins.
Interviews with more than a dozen major liberal groups, progressive activists, operatives and elected officials reveal that many in the most liberal faction of the party are not yet sold on one person; they’re open to a number of candidates, including those who are not perfectly aligned with litmus test principles of the past.
To many, the Sanders mantle is Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s for the taking, should she want it. But others say the New York progressive wouldn’t be the inevitable heir, arguing that Rep. Ro Khanna of California also has Bernie-like bona fides, and several other candidates have potential.
Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of Our Revolution, the organization founded by Sanders, said the group’s 8 million members have “an open mind” on whom they’d like to see run for president in 2028, particularly after watching someone like newly minted New York City Zohran Mamdani emerge from nowhere and become a national sensation.
“I don’t think the field is written. There’s always somebody who’s surprising. They can step in and really scramble the field,” he said. “AOC, Ro Khanna, potentially others would have an advantage given they’ve been leading on issues that are important to the base.”
Like Sanders, AOC is a singular figure in American politics, a force capable of drawing enormous, energetic crowds. Her superpower is small-dollar fundraising, which could catapult her to the top of the pile in any electoral contest. She has through-the-roof name recognition and consistently polls in the top five among Democratic leaders potentially seeking the White House. Ocasio-Cortez has not decided whether to run for Senate or mount a presidential bid, but she has not ruled anything out, according to a source with knowledge of her thinking.
That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.
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