Protein-hungry shoppers are buying more meat with their health top of mind. Health experts, however, wish they’d think beyond the butcher counter.

More than three-quarters of U.S. consumers saw meat and poultry as “part of a healthy, balanced diet” last year, up from 64% in 2020, according to an annual survey from food industry groups FMI and the Meat Institute, released last month. Forty-five percent are “actively trying to prepare more meals containing meat or poultry,” while another 31% are “doing so off and on,” the survey found.

The unifying factor behind these increases? Protein. It’s “firmly at the center of consumer interest,” the report said.

Meat Institute CEO Julie Anna Potts said in a statement that the data “reinforces meat’s clear and irreplaceable role” in providing consumers with “healthy, convenient, affordable meals.” The trade group, which declined interview requests from NBC News, has long pitched the same argument to policymakers. It cheered the updated U.S. dietary guidelines unveiled in January that recommend more protein, especially meat and full-fat dairy. And when the report was released at the industry’s Annual Meat Conference last month, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was there as a featured guest.

The protein craze has been in full swing for several years. But with the trend going strong and a fresh boost from federal officials — in February, Kennedy posted on X that “the war on protein is over” and “beef is back on the menu” — health experts worry people are overfixating on protein in general and meat-based sources of it in particular.

A spokesperson for the Department of Health and Human Services said in a statement that the updated dietary guidelines “are the first to emphasize optimal consumption of protein through nutrient dense sources including red meat, poultry, seafood, dairy, and legumes.”

Erin Hennessy, a Tufts University nutritionist, said that “protein isn’t bad for you,” adding that she isn’t urging everyone to go vegetarian. Some people do need more protein, including those who are aging, pregnant or losing weight, whether through dieting or GLP-1 drugs.

“But protein intake and health, especially as it relates to an individual, is not a linear relationship, and that’s the misperception that people have,” Hennessy said.

Meat is indeed packed with protein, but it comes with some well-established health drawbacks.

“Saturated fat we’ve known about for decades,” said Dr. Sarah C. Hull, a cardiologist at Yale Medicine. It’s common in red meat and contributes to increasing LDL cholesterol levels, hardening the blood vessels and, in turn, raising the risk of heart attack or stroke.

Moreover, “all mammalian meat tends to be very inflammatory,” said Hull, who studies the diet-related risks of heart disease and cancer. “More recently we’ve come to understand that the many pro-inflammatory compounds found in red meat” can have other downsides, she said, including “deleterious interactions with the gut microbiome.” Studies have also linked the risks of certain cancers and Type 2 diabetes to heme iron, a form of the mineral that’s found only in animal tissue and is more easily absorbed than the iron in plants.

The Meat Institute has argued that the link between meat and heart disease isn’t so clear. “The evidence implicating meat consumption in adverse cardiometabolic outcomes is of low quality,” making any links between the two “uncertain,” the group wrote in a report last year.

Hull rejected that claim: “This is the same tactic the tobacco industry used to try to undermine the overwhelming, albeit largely observational, data demonstrating the grave dangers of smoking.” There’s now “extensive” evidence supporting “the benefits of a whole-food, plant-forward diet that reduces consumption of red meat and highly processed foods,” she said.

In late March, the American Heart Association issued new guidance prioritizing plant-based protein over meat. The American College of Cardiology, the American Diabetes Association and the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics each recommend more plant-forward eating and limited meat intake.

How much protein — and what kind?

Health experts say Americans typically get plenty of protein.

“Most people are hitting their recommendations, by and large,” Hennessy said.

Until recently, the recommended daily allowance was 0.8 grams of protein for every kilogram of body weight. Barring other dietary considerations, that meant a person weighing 150 pounds (68 kg) should aim to get around 54 grams a day. In the Kennedy-backed dietary guidelines, the stepped-up target is a range of 1.2-1.6 g/kg. That works out to roughly 82-109 grams for a 150-pound adult.

Hennessy said that eating too much of any nutrient risks causing unwanted side effects. Excessive protein can stress the kidneys, cause dehydration and contribute to other problems.

“Once you reach your personal maximum benefit based on your age, your activity level and your body weight, eating above that is actually going to cause harm. It’s not going to confer more benefits,” she said.

Instead of leaning into red meat, Hennessy encourages eating more plant- and seafood-based protein, adding that these sources are where Americans tend to be lacking. Many nuts, legumes, whole grains and fish are not only protein-rich, they contain nutrients that steaks and pork chops don’t.

Hull said that many common plant-based proteins are particularly high in fiber, which 95% of Americans don’t get enough of, and they’re generally associated with better overall health outcomes than animal proteins. Her research suggests that increased consumption of certain plant-derived nutrients may help counter some negative effects of red meat and ultra-processed foods.

Of course, lambchops may have a leg up on chickpeas for reasons other than health; in market research, taste has long fueled consumers’ carnivorism. But when restaurant menus say “Choose your protein” and then list their meat options, Hull said, it’s not only a misleading omission but a missed chance to promote these plant-based benefits.

Nutrition fads may come and go, like the ’90s low-fat trend, but Hennessy said there’s still “a lot of work to do” to help consumers incorporate more plants into their diets — which would benefit their health as well as the planet’s. It may “take a long time to shift the social norms,” she said.

Jim Cusson, president of the retail branding agency Theory House that works extensively in the grocery space, said that Starbucks’ adding protein to its lattes should’ve signaled the peak of the protein craze.

“I’m not so sure we’re quite there yet,” he said.

With beef prices expected to keep climbing — they rose more than 12% in March from the year before — more shoppers may grab cheaper cuts or swap in pork or poultry, Cusson said. But “you’ll see a shift down to those proteins probably before you get to the legumes, etc.,” he said.

Even value-conscious shoppers are keeping meat and poultry in their carts; in the industry report, 68% called these items “non-negotiable or important when it comes to budget tradeoffs.” Beef comprised 70% of last year’s 6.8% jump in U.S. meat sales, which hit a record $112 billion, according to Circana data. (FMI, which represents grocers and their suppliers, declined to comment, pointing to its statement applauding the new dietary guidelines.)

One of Theory House’s clients is a beef seller that’s rolling out new packaging this month. Its 8-ounce “American-style, kobe-crafted” patties now feature a large callout highlighting their 38 grams of protein per serving. Cusson said the change initially struck him as unnecessary, but the company made a strong case.

Going forward, he said, “every touchpoint with the consumer is going to be amplifying protein.”