New gas projects linked to just 11 data center campuses around the US have the potential to create more greenhouse gases than the country of Morocco emitted in 2024. Emissions estimates from air permit documents examined by WIRED show that these natural gas projects—which are being built to power data centers to serve some of the US’s most powerful AI companies, including OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft, and xAI—have the potential to emit more than 129 million tons of greenhouse gases per year.

As tech companies race to secure massive power deals to build out hundreds of data centers across the country, these projects represent just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the potential climate cost of the AI boom.

The infrastructure on this list of large natural gas projects reviewed by WIRED is being developed to largely bypass the grid and provide power solely for data centers, a trend known as behind-the-meter power. As data center developers face long waits for connections to traditional utilities, and amid mounting public resistance to the possibility of higher energy bills, making their own power is becoming an increasingly popular option. These projects have either been announced or are under construction, with companies already submitting air permit application materials with state agencies.

Michael Thomas, the founder of clean energy research firm Cleanview, has been tracking gas permits for data centers across the country. He calls behind-the-meter power “a crazy acceleration of emissions.”

“It’s almost like we thought we were on the downside of the Industrial Revolution, retiring coal and gas, and now we have a new hump where we’re going to rise,” he says. “That terrifies me in a lot of ways.”

One of the first—and most notorious—examples on this list is in Memphis, Tennessee. xAI made national headlines in 2024 after it began to set up gas turbines at its first data center campus in the city, Colossus 1, to quickly develop Grok, its AI. Community members living in the low-income Black community around the campus, concerned about air pollution, rallied to protest the turbines. (The EPA ultimately approved the use of turbines for the xAI campus last year; last month, regulators granted a permit for an xAI affiliate for the company’s second campus in Southaven, Mississippi, despite widespread community opposition. The NAACP filed suit against xAI last week, claiming the company was illegally operating the turbines.)

xAI’s gas turbines also represent what could be a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions. Air permit applications for both the Colossus campus in Memphis and the nearby Colossus 2 campus in Southaven show that the turbines on each campus could generate more than 6.4 million tons of CO2equivalents at each site per year. Combined, that’s roughly equivalent to the emissions from more than 30 average-size natural gas plants, or enough energy to power 1.5 million homes. (xAI did not respond to a request for comment.)

Microsoft, meanwhile, is reportedly looking into purchasing power from a Chevron-backed natural gas project in West Texas. That single project, according to its permit, could emit more than 11.5 million tons of greenhouse gases each year—more than the yearly emissions of the entire country of Jamaica.

“Microsoft takes a portfolio approach to energy, leveraging a range of solutions to meet reliability needs while continuing to invest in carbon-free electricity,” Melanie Nakagawa, the chief sustainability officer at Microsoft, told WIRED in a statement. “In certain regions, dedicated onsite energy infrastructure may be part of that portfolio, particularly where grid constraints limit the pace of deployment.”

The emissions projections for the xAI and Microsoft projects, and all the others on WIRED’s list, were pulled directly from publicly available air permit documents in state databases as well as public air permit materials collected by both Cleanview and Oil and Gas Watch, a database maintained by the Environmental Integrity Project, an environmental enforcement nonprofit. Actual greenhouse gas emissions from power plants are usually lower than what’s on their air permits. Air permit modeling is based on the scenario of a power plant constantly running at full capacity. That’s rarely the reality for grid-connected power plants, as turbines go offline for maintenance or adjust to the ebbs and flows of customer demand.

“Permitted emission numbers represent a theoretical, conservative scenario, not the actual projected emissions,” Alex Schott, the director of communications at Williams Companies, an oil and gas company that is building out three behind-the-meter power plants in Ohio for Meta, told WIRED in an email. Internal modeling done by the company, Schott added, shows that actual emissions could be “potentially two-thirds less than what’s on paper.”

The projections involved, however, are still substantial. Even if the actual emissions from these power plants end up being half of the emissions numbers on the permits, they still could create more greenhouse gas emissions than the country of Norway emitted in 2024. This number is, according to the EPA, equivalent to the emissions from more than 153 average-size natural gas plants. (WIRED’s analysis does not include emissions from backup generators and turbines on the data center campuses themselves, which create smaller amounts of emissions.)

Energy researcher Jon Koomey estimates that while emissions from efficient grid-connected gas plants could be 40 to 50 percent of the permitted numbers, data center emissions could be much closer to what is modeled on the permit, given that they don’t have to respond to customer demand. This idea is reflected on a November permit application for a data center being built by AI company Crusoe, a player in three of the projects WIRED reported on. The permit application describes the facility as “unlike a traditional power plant” that has to “respond to the demands of a constantly varying grid. At the data center, the power requirements do not vary significantly.” (“We view gas as a critical bridge—not the destination—as we work to build AI infrastructure that meets the scale of demand while expanding access to innovative forms of energy over time,” Andrew Schmitt, Crusoe’s senior director of communications, told WIRED in a statement.)

Koomey points out that a global shortage of the most efficient types of gas turbines—thanks in part to the data center race—is prompting some developers to consider choosing less efficient turbine models, forcing them to run them for longer and create more emissions.

“[Data center operators’] belief is that the value being delivered by the servers is much, much more than the cost of running these inefficient power plants all the time,” Koomey says.

Gas projects developed as part of the Stargate Project, a massive, multicompany AI effort originally started to build out infrastructure for OpenAI, also represent a potential emissions bombshell on WIRED’s list. Stargate campuses are being built across multiple states, including Texas, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Permit documents for just three Stargate-affiliated natural gas projects—one to power a data center campus near the project’s headquarters in Abilene, Texas, and two to power Project Jupiter, a campus in New Mexico—show that they have a combined potential to emit more than 24 million tons of greenhouse gases each year.

“We are committed to protecting ratepayers while building the infrastructure needed for U.S. AI leadership,” OpenAI spokesperson Aaron McLear said in a statement. “Where near term natural gas is required to ensure reliable power, we work with partners to use modern, efficient generation while helping accelerate clean power and grid modernization.”

Oracle spokesperson Julia Allyn Fishel told WIRED that there is a “modification” to the Project Jupiter application currently in progress, “which is expected to materially lower emissions.” The company did not provide the new emissions estimates, which the New Mexico Environment Department have not yet made public.

“Oracle is committed to paying our own way on energy costs while implementing the best energy solution for each community so that ratepayers’ bills and electric grid reliability are not impacted by our AI data centers,” Fishel said in a statement.

A fourth gas plant on the main Stargate campus in Abilene has, according to application documents, the potential to permit more than 7.8 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalents each year. This power plant is being built by Crusoe for use by Microsoft. The companies announced in late March that Crusoe would be building new buildings on the Abilene campus, including a power plant, to support Microsoft’s AI infrastructure. (Microsoft declined to comment.)

There are projects with an even bigger potential carbon footprint than Stargate. Outside of Amarillo, Texas, White House darling Fermi is building what it calls the President Donald J. Trump Advanced Energy and Intelligence Campus, a data center campus with a target of 17 gigawatts. Fermi continuously emphasizes its use of what it calls “clean” natural gas. But documents show that the maximum emissions for the two gas projects combined could be more than 40.3 million tons of CO2 equivalents each year, more than the yearly emissions of all the power sources in the state of Connecticut.

About five hours south of Amarillo, near the city of Fort Stockton, Pacifico Energy is developing what it claims is the largest single energy project in the country: a 7.2 gigawatt data center campus, powered by a gas project that is permitted to emit more than 33 million tons of greenhouse gases each year. (Pacifico did not respond to a request for comment.)

Major tech companies that have made carbon reduction pledges in recent years have acknowledged that the AI infrastructure build-out is hampering their goals. The sheer scale of the gas projects shows how easy it is for even just a few fossil fuel plants to tip the scale.

Meta, for example, is linked with three behind-the-meter gas projects in Ohio: two to power a data center in New Albany, and one to power a separate facility in Wood County. Together, permit documents for these facilities show they could emit a maximum of 5.5 million tons of CO2 equivalents each year.

Meta claims in its 2025 sustainability report that it has reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 23.8 million metric tons since 2021. But even if the three projects in Ohio emit just half of what’s on their permits, that would still equal more than 10 percent of the company’s stated emissions reductions over the past four years. (Meta declined to comment on the record.)

The Ohio projects aren’t the only fossil fuel projects in Meta’s pipeline. Most major AI companies building behind-the-meter power are also pursuing arrangements with utilities to pay for power plants that would be connected to the grid. Meta has an agreement with utility Entergy to help power a massive data center, Hyperion, in Richland Parish, Louisiana. A gas plant being built by Entergy in Richland Parish to meet power needs from the Meta campus could, according to its application, emit nearly 5.2 million tons of greenhouse gases each year. Earlier this month, Meta announced that it would pay for seven new natural gas plants, totaling more than five gigawatts, to serve both its data centers and Entergy customers. (These facilities, the announcement states, are being built with future carbon capture capabilities, which could drive down some emissions from the plants.)

Data center developers have quickly jumped over the past year to pursue behind-the-meter options. Research released in January from Global Energy Monitor, a nonprofit that tracks oil and gas, showed that nearly 100 gigawatts of behind-the-meter natural gas power for data centers were in the US development pipeline at the start of 2026—up from just 4 gigawatts of data center-specific power in the pipeline in early 2024. Several massive, multi-gigawatt data center gas projects have been announced in the weeks since the research was released, illustrating just how quick the race to build out data center power has become. In March, several companies linked to projects on this list signed the Ratepayer Protection Pledge, a nonbinding agreement sponsored by the Trump administration, which asks AI companies to “build, bring, or buy” power generation for data centers. (Experts told WIRED that the pledge was largely symbolic, and that neither the White House nor tech companies have much control over policies that can actually bring down consumer electric bills.)

Last month, three Senate Democrats sent questions about emissions from data centers to several leading tech companies, including OpenAI, Meta, and Fermi. In response to a series of questions from WIRED about the carbon emissions on its air permit, Fermi sent a copy of its response to those lawmakers, where it urged the lawmakers to support nuclear energy and the campus’s inclusion in foreign nuclear investment deals. The company also claimed that its behind-the-meter power was not subject to regulations requiring them to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, since its power would not be connected to the electric grid.

“Clean natural gas is fundamental to the energy transition and is the logical bridge to nuclear for a nation that cannot afford to wait,” the letter states. The company did not answer questions about whether it would retire the natural gas turbines it was building once its planned nuclear capability is brought online.

It is unlikely that all of the gas facilities WIRED examined will get built; an air permit is not a guarantee of construction. Neither Fermi nor the GW Ranch facility, the two largest emitters on this list, have a client yet. (On Friday, Fermi announced that its CEO would be stepping down immediately; while he remains on the board, he has called for the company to be sold. Stocks plunged more than 20 percent, and the company’s CFO also departed.) The Stargate project has created high-profile headlines as OpenAI reshuffles its strategy; the company paused a planned data center expansion in the UK this week. Turbine shortages, labor and construction costs, and energy shocks in the Middle East are just a few factors that could cause bumps in the road for AI companies building their own power. And most of these companies are also racing to build out renewable energy and nuclear as they seek to power their data centers with anything and everything they can get.

But Thomas sees behind-the-meter gas power as a potentially lasting trend for data centers—with worrisome implications for the climate.

“The thing that has kept me up at night and is starting to really worry me,” he says, “is what happens if this gets 10 times bigger?”