Astronomers say the upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket that launched in early 2025 will strike the Moon later this summer, likely on the near side of the Moon.

Bill Gray, who writes the widely used Project Pluto software to track near-Earth objects, has published a comprehensive report on the impact expected to occur at 2:44 am ET (06:44 UTC) on August 5. The Falcon 9 rocket’s upper stage is 13.8 meters (45 feet) tall and has a 3.7-meter (12 feet) diameter. Since the Moon has no atmosphere, it will strike the lunar surface intact.

Although the Moon will be visible to the eastern half of the US and Canada, and in much of South America, Gray said he believes the impact will probably be too faint to be seen by Earth-based telescopes.

Highly confident in its origin

Gray said he and other astronomers are highly confident that this object is the second stage of the Falcon 9 rocket that launched two lunar landers, Firefly’s Blue Ghost and ispace’s Hakuto-R, on January 15, 2025. After the launch, the two landers, a payload fairing, and the upper stage were all tracked following their separation. The two landers reached the Moon (only Blue Ghost successfully touched down), and the fairing reentered Earth’s atmosphere.

“The upper stage, 2025-010D, also kept orbiting the Earth, but was a bit higher and didn’t re-enter,” Gray wrote. “It’s had a few close passes by the Moon and Earth, but nothing that was close enough to look like a possible impact. The asteroid surveys observed it whenever it wasn’t too close to the Sun or Moon to see. As of 2026 February 26, we had accumulated 1053 observations of it.”