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The debate about Hong Kong’s quota on ride-hailing vehicles has produced the predictable theatre of incumbents seeking protection and platforms seeking market share, while officials seek a number nobody can justify with confidence. A static quota is the wrong instrument for a dynamic market.

The data illustrates the difficulty: demand can vary as much as 66 per cent; up to 90 per cent of ride-hailing drivers work part-time; at one platform, annual driver attrition approaches 44 per cent.

A fixed cap is unlikely to accommodate these variables without suppressing supply at peak times or creating oversupply at quiet times. The government is trying to predict the equilibrium output of a market it has never formally regulated. During the Legislative Council transport panel meeting on May 12, officials and legislators could not agree on a number with analytical confidence.

There is a better approach: rather than a static quota, consider a preregistration and daily licence regime.

Under such a regime, drivers would first satisfy preregistration criteria: upper and lower age limits, clean driving record, no sexual offence convictions, vehicle below the 12-year limit, individual ownership as required by person-vehicle binding. Pre-registration creates a verified supply pool without conferring any operational entitlement.