A series ⁠of reversals suffered by Mali’s Moscow-backed military government has dented Russia’s image as ⁠a self-styled security guarantor in Africa and threatens its strategic and economic interests on the continent.

The military junta, which turned to Russia for support after expelling French and UN troops following coups in 2020 and 2021, was rocked at the weekend by an offensive by West Africa’s al-Qaeda affiliate and a Tuareg-dominated separatist group.

Mali’s Russia-trained defence minister, Sadio Camara, was killed in a suicide bombing, Russia’s Africa Corps was forced to withdraw from Kidal – an important town that Russian ‌mercenaries helped take in 2023 – and Moscow used helicopter gunships and strategic bombers to hold insurgents back.

Assimi Goita, the junta leader who was welcomed in the Kremlin last summer by President Vladimir Putin, survived. But he now faces the prospect of armed groups trying to seize swathes of Mali’s vast desert north amid Russian warnings that the insurgents are regrouping.

The events could be a serious threat to Russian interests, political analysts say, and Moscow’s response was being closely watched abroad at a time when its forces were tied down fighting in Ukraine and its geopolitical influence is under pressure in other parts of the world.

“Mali is one of the centres of power for Russia in West Africa,” Irina Filatova, an Honorary ⁠Research Associate at the University of Cape Town, said.