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Hong Kong’s falling birth rate brings to mind a tune from decades ago: “Two is enough, two is enough, girl or boy, two is enough.” At the time, the Family Planning Association campaign made perfect sense. The city was crowded, resources were tight and limiting population growth was a rational goal. It succeeded.

Today, Hong Kong faces the inverse problem. Birth rates are among the lowest in the world, and attention has shifted to reversing the trend or offsetting it through immigration.

Having lived in Japan for decades, I have seen what follows when births decline over time. The outcome is not sudden decay. Cities remain orderly, efficient, even busy. But something more subtle begins to change.

In a commuter town where I once lived, playgrounds were gradually replaced by parking spaces. Schools merged, the streets stayed clean, the houses well-kept – but the faces grew older, without being replaced at the same pace. Weekdays and weekends began to feel indistinguishable. The town had not emptied. It had simply stopped renewing itself.

Hong Kong is not there yet. Its density and continued inflow of people will keep it active. Immigration can sustain numbers and support the workforce. But it cannot fully replace the quieter process by which a city renews itself through families and new generations.