Asia is entering a dangerous summer for food production as scientists warn of a “super El Nino” suppressing rainfall while the war on Iran drives up energy and fertiliser costs for farmers.

India’s Meteorological Department has forecast a below-average monsoon, after two successive years of above-normal rains, while in Australia – a major wheat producer and exporter – a shortage of farm inputs and persistent dryness has reportedly pushed planting acreage to a seven-year low.

Farmers across South and Southeast Asia were already reeling from soaring fertiliser prices driven by a shortage of natural gas, used to make urea, as supplies from Qatar, one of the world’s largest producers, have dropped to near zero amid the war.

“It is very concerning because this year is supposed to be a super El Nino, and you are getting into the planting season,” said analyst Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, founder of India-based financial research and advisory firm Commtrendz Research, which specialises in commodity futures.

“This is going to be widespread across South and Southeast Asia. There will be dryness everywhere.”

El Nino is the name for a climatic phenomenon that causes periodic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, shifting global weather patterns and leading to heavy rain in some areas while bringing drought to others.

Thiagarajan said the conditions were already making themselves felt in the southern Indian state of Kerala, where the land is usually prepared for planting during the pre-monsoon season, from March to May, which brings thunderstorms and high humidity.