As China and the United States compete for leadership in AI, energy and other strategic sectors, a quieter but no less important contest is taking place further down the supply chain: the race to secure copper.

The humble metal has become one of the most vital commodities of the 21st century, powering the servers, systems and cooling infrastructure that support artificial intelligence as well as the batteries used in electric vehicles and the electronics guiding modern weapons.

That growing importance risks fuelling geopolitical tensions. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is expected to deliver an updated assessment of the market to the White House by June 30, after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order last year to revive America’s domestic industry.

The report will include an update on the necessity of new tariffs on refined copper imports, following a recommendation by Lutnick in a similar report last year. At that time, the commerce secretary suggested duties of 15 per cent to be enacted on the first day of 2027, rising to 30 per cent a year later.

If approved, these tariffs would be imposed on an existing 50 per cent tariff on semi-finished copper products and intensive derivative items, levied in August with other measures designed to encourage domestic production and investment.

But Washington faces a serious challenge: its growing focus on supply chain security is colliding with a highly concentrated global industry.

“A single foreign producer dominates global copper smelting and refining, controlling over 50 per cent of global smelting capacity and holding four of the top five largest refining facilities,” the White House wrote in a February 2025 order, which opened an investigation into copper imports under Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act.