The much-awaited reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains elusive. On Sunday, US President Donald Trump found the Iranian response to the latest US peace proposal to be “unacceptable”, so it is unlikely that a pathway to unblocking the waterway can be established before his Beijing trip. With Hormuz unresolved, the US president will arrive for the summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week with a weaker hand. Bluster aside, what is the United States’ true bargaining position on the strait?

Trump and Tehran declared the strait open on April 17, but the reopening lasted only hours before Iran closed the waterway again, as Trump insisted on maintaining a naval blockade of Iran until a deal was reached.

Despite Trump’s repeated declarations that the US has all the cards while Iran has none, the opposite is closer to the truth. The naval blockade is the last move of a player trapped in the wrong game with no easy exit. This is a long chess game across multiple arenas, not one easily solved by a mere poker bluff.

After Trump’s threat to wipe out the Iranian “civilisation” – or civilian infrastructure – was widely condemned, the naval blockade became the only fallback option. While Iran is in a position to propose a reciprocal reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump is stuck with his only card , ineffectual as a unilateral device even if a useful bargaining chip.

To force open Iran’s grip, Trump launched “Project Freedom” on May 4, promising to guide commercial ships through the strait. A contest of wills began, as Iran responded with violence; a French cargo ship was attacked in the strait on day two of the US operation. Saudi Arabia reportedly refused permission for US air forces to use its bases to support Project Freedom. All of two US-flagged ships reportedly sailed through the strait in two days, before Trump hit pause on an operation Iran had nicknamed “Project Deadlock”.

The two economies are engaged in a contest of endurance. Since the start of the Iran war, US petrol prices have risen about 50 per cent, to an average of US$4.60 a gallon last week. In a poll conducted last week, nearly 58 per cent of US voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of inflation, while 51 per cent were dissatisfied with his handling of the economy.