The pace of electrification on western Europe’s roads is likely to fire up sales of Chinese-developed smart cars, where they could command a 20 per cent share of the regional market in 2028 at the expense of local peers, according to a JPMorgan forecast.

Chinese carmakers from BYD, the world’s largest electric vehicle (EV) builder, to Stallentis-backed Leapmotor, were expected to deliver 2.5 million cars to customers in countries like Germany, Italy, France and the United Kingdom in 2028, a surge of 150 per cent from about 1 million units last year, Nick Lai, head of auto research in Asia-Pacific at JPMorgan, said in an interview.

“Electrification is accelerating across Europe, creating the precise environment where Chinese OEMs’ (original equipment manufacturers’) product breadth becomes advantageous,” he said. “Investors should anticipate a continued ‘zero-sum game’ dynamic, with Chinese OEMs potentially winning share from tier-two foreign peers in Europe, Asia and Latin America.”

In 2025, Chinese cars, comprising exports from China and locally built vehicles, represented 10 per cent of total new car sales in western Europe.

JPMorgan previously predicted that Chinese cars could account for 15 per cent of new vehicle deliveries in western Europe by 2030.