US President Donald Trump’s landmark visit to China comes as the Iran war disrupts global energy supplies, fuels economic uncertainty and adds fresh strain to Washington-Beijing ties. In the latest part of a series examining how rivalry, interdependence and geopolitical crises are reshaping the relationship between the two powers, we look at how Trump’s weakened hand could tilt summit talks.

When next week’s summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was first proposed, Trump was riding relatively high and Xi was holding steady against his impetuous counterpart.

Six months later, Trump heads to Beijing politically dented and militarily overextended, factors that diplomacy experts, China analysts and former government officials say will shape the meeting’s tenor.

While summits are mostly about foreign policy, protocol and deliverables, dynamics back home underpin the negotiations.

“There’s no question that weakness on the domestic front puts a president in a precarious position on the global stage, especially when dealing with a leader like Xi Jinping. He not only senses that weakness but works to exploit it,” said former White House global engagement director Brett Bruen.

“China has been trying to position itself as the more reasonable actor among global superpowers. So this is a prime moment for him to both try and manipulate and outmanoeuvre the other.”

Traditionally, potential weak points are outlined in exhaustive briefing materials before high-stakes meetings. Trump is not traditional and tends to favour his “gut”, although power dynamics are hardly lost on him, even if he does not acknowledge them.