Donald Trump’s blunt warning that he was not looking to have “somebody go independent” after his summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping has reignited debate in Taiwan over whether Washington is hardening its message on the island.

For many in Taipei, the US president’s remarks evoked memories of the George W. Bush administration, when Washington publicly checked Taiwan over moves seen as edging towards formal independence.

But just as analysts were debating whether Trump had delivered the sharpest US warning to the island since Bush publicly rebuked then Taiwanese leader Chen Shui-bian in 2003, a new twist complicated the picture.

Trump now says he plans to speak directly with Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te over a pending US$14 billion arms package.

If realised, the move would be unprecedented between sitting US and Taiwan leaders since Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979.

It would almost certainly anger Beijing and raise fresh questions over whether Trump was restraining Taipei or recalibrating US policy in a more unpredictable direction.