The decades-long negotiations on a code of conduct in the South China Sea may finally come to an end this year. Several parties involved, including China and the Philippines, have expressed confidence in reaching a final conclusion to the proposed set of rules in the contested waterways in the coming months.

In March, Beijing signalled its hope of concluding negotiations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations by the end of the year while Manila has repeatedly expressed its intention to see the negotiations concluded during its chairmanship of Asean this year.

But relations between Beijing and Manila have been precarious and unstable in recent years. Can the two insulate negotiations from their maritime and political frictions, or will these become yet more obstacles to the conclusion of the code of conduct?

Much will depend on how Beijing and Manila manage two key issues of 2026: the 10th anniversary of the 2016 South China Sea arbitration ruling, and the persistent distrust between both countries’ frontline maritime forces.

China has never accepted the July 12, 2016, ruling by the tribunal of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, rejecting it immediately as “null and void” with “no binding force”. Beijing continues to reiterate its non-acceptance of the ruling even as Manila marks the anniversaries over the years. As the 10th anniversary approaches, both countries can be expected to enter another period of political tension and high-profile clashes in the South China Sea.

But the relationship was not always so. The 2016 election of Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines led to a stabilisation as his administration gravitated towards China and away from the United States.