Since America launched its “major combat operation” against Iran, several Nato allies have distanced themselves from Washington. Now America also risks losing ground in strategically important Southeast Asia to China. Could it face an erosion of influence similar to that suffered by Russia in Central Asia as a result of its “special military operation” in Ukraine?

Soon after US President Donald Trump launched massive air and missile strikes on Iran on February 28, it became clear Washington could not count on the support of its Western partners. One by one, European countries refused to participate in his Iran adventure, including military operations in the Strait of Hormuz. US allies in the Middle East have also learned that Henry Kissinger’s observation that “it may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal” still carries significant weight.

But Asean seems to have been aware of this from the start.

On March 4, while the US and Israel carried out missile and air strikes against Iran, the foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations issued a statement. It expressed “serious concern over the escalation of conflict in the Middle East following the attacks initiated by Israel and the United States against the Islamic Republic of Iran on 28 February 2026 and the subsequent retaliatory attacks by the Islamic Republic of Iran against several countries in the region”.

This balanced, factually accurate approach shows Asean did not intend to side with Washington despite some members being US treaty allies.

Asean has repeatedly called for an immediate cessation of hostilities while continuing to strengthen regional integration, particularly in energy – no surprise given some member nations have been hit hard by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Politically, however, while Asean as a whole remains neutral, some individual members seem to be seeking to distance themselves from the US and aligning more closely with China.