As the Middle East conflict spreads uncertainty among farmers around the world, Chinese farmers are carrying out their spring ploughing as usual and appear largely untroubled.

“The supply of chemical fertilisers for spring ploughing is ample,” an official with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said at a news conference last month, adding that domestic fertiliser prices were “far lower than international prices” and spring sowing was proceeding as normal.

While policymakers around the world have been focused on the threats to oil and petrochemical supplies stemming from the US-Israeli war on Iran, fertiliser is another global commodity whose market has shifted, with China’s hold over upstream agricultural inputs becoming more evident.

China – which accounts for about one-third of global fertiliser production – exerts a strong influence on the global agrochemical supply chain, and it has reportedly strengthened curbs on fertiliser exports in recent months.

China also accounts for about 70 per cent of the world’s production capacity for the raw materials used in chemical pesticides, according to research firm IBISWorld.

Analysts said that production prowess gave China a greater say, especially as Iran and the United States continued to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global fertiliser shipments. Before the US and Israel began military strikes on Iran at the end of February, about one-third of seaborne fertiliser trade passed through the narrow waterway, according to the UN.

“China’s continued export restrictions, combined with global shortages in urea and phosphate fertilisers, are pushing prices higher and will ultimately affect global food security,” analysts at Sublime China Information (SCI) said in emailed replies to questions.