As US President Donald Trump prepares to visit China, Taiwan is again one of the most sensitive issues in US-China relations. For Washington, this is not only a question about the Taiwan Strait. It is a strategic choice that bears on whether the United States can avoid a comprehensive conflict with China, stabilise markets and secure Chinese cooperation on trade, artificial intelligence (AI), Iran and the wider Middle East.

This could be the moment when a clear US stance against Taiwan independence would carry the lowest cost and yield the highest return.

Taiwan concerns China’s core national interests. Beijing’s position on national reunification and opposition to secession will not change. In recent years, US arms sales, higher-level exchanges and congressional signalling have been read in Beijing as encouragement to separatist forces on the island. These moves might bring short-term political gains in Washington, but they also increase the risk of miscalculation.

If the Taiwan Strait spirals out of control, China and the US would risk a systemic confrontation affecting finance, supply chains, energy markets and military security. This would serve neither China’s interests nor those of the US, and certainly not those of Asia or the wider world.

If Washington genuinely wants peace across the strait, it must recognise that tolerating Taiwan independence will not produce peace. It will erode the political foundation for a peaceful settlement.

Opposing Taiwan independence is consistent with the long-standing US position. The US has repeatedly said it seeks peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, does not support Taiwan independence and maintains a one-China policy. If these formulations still have operational meaning, Washington should reduce ambiguity where it matters most and avoid encouraging political forces in Taiwan to believe the US will assume unlimited risks on their behalf.