Malaysia’s Umno is making a heady gamble by planning to strike out on its own, experts say, as the former ruling party looks to rally support from among the country’s Malay-Muslim majority in preparation for national polls that must be called in less than two years from now.

Umno President Ahmad Zahid Hamidi on Sunday said the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition that the party led was “almost certain” of standing alone in the coming general election, after more than three years as a junior partner in government with erstwhile rivals from Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s ruling Pakatan Harapan (PH) alliance.

Ahmad Zahid’s announcement caps months of speculation as to whether the United Malays National Organisation will form an election pact with Anwar’s multicultural PH, which has struggled to win support from a Malay base fearful of losing their political power to the country’s ethnic minorities.

The maths is clear, at least to Umno – it needs to portray confidence that it is ready to get back into the driver’s seat after it was unceremoniously booted from power seven years ago on the back of widespread anger over rising living costs and allegations of systemic corruption in its ranks.

Now as the de facto Malay representation in Anwar’s rag-tag unity government, contesting independently would be the best way to prove that Umno has reclaimed its role as the pillar of Malay political power.

“Realistically we think we can win 50-60 seats in the next election,” a senior party leader told This Week in Asia, asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.