Howard Oakley:

When the Software Update pane offers a macOS update, it has already done a lot of the preliminary work, in fetching the catalogue of updates, checking through them to determine which could be installed, and working out what that would require. This enables it to provide a first estimate of how much needs to be downloaded. Note this is only an estimate at this stage, and may not include additional components such as an update to Rosetta 2.

Before the download can begin, softwareupdated has initial preparations to make, including reloading and downloading the Update Brain responsible for much of the task of installation. Following that are extensive preflight checks, and together those account for the first 15% of the progress bar shown. On a fast Apple silicon Mac, the progress bar may jump straight to that 15%.

[The download] starts at that arbitrary 15%, and is completed when the bar reaches 55%. In between those it should progress according to download speed, but that can be highly non-linear.

As soon as the download is complete, there’s another preflight phase lasting from 55%-60%, then the downloads are prepared for installation. This phase doesn’t apparently involve their decompression, which is largely performed on the download stream during the download phase.

Preparations are arbitrarily assigned a period of 30 minutes to complete, but now seldom if ever require that long. As they’re allocated to the last 40% of the progress bar, this phase usually completes much quicker than the times given.

The final 5 minutes are often the slowest, and can take a few minutes longer than that, as the files for installation are gathered into a ‘stash’ ready for the Update Brain to install. Because the progress bar tends to jump straight from 95% complete to 100% this can make it look as if the update has frozen.