Will 2026 be LIV Golf’s final year?

Certainly in its present form, as a 14-event entity worth $30m per tournament. LIV was entirely reliant on Saudi Arabian money, to the tune of more than $5bn since 2021. The cash burn rate, albeit slowed down recently, has always been unsustainable.

It is feasible that Scott O’Neil, LIV’s chief executive, will find backers for the business at a level which means it can be prolonged in some way. He has already attracted marquee sponsors and overseen significant revenue growth.

LIV needs an equivalent to the Strategic Sports Group, a private equity enterprise which ploughed $1.5bn into the PGA Tour in 2024. O’Neil can point to success in markets the PGA Tour has ignored.

However, all the mood music within golf is that the PGA Tour has essentially won its battle with a disruptive competitor. LIV had financial muscle but no tradition or footprint in the sport. Without PIF’s vast sums of money, the appeal for players will diminish fast. No LIV in 2027 is likely. A tour functioning somewhere in the wilderness or in partnership with others is feasible. O’Neil’s current, base case scenario is the latter.

Which players are affected?

Quite the range. There are marquee names: Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Cameron Smith, Tyrrell Hatton, Lee Westwood, Dustin Johnson, Ian Poulter and Phil Mickelson among them. There are younger, emerging talents such as José Luis Ballester. Anthony Kim’s return from oblivion has been a fascinating tale. Some golfers looked to be approaching the end of their careers, meaning any demise for LIV after they already received an extraordinary payday will not hurt too much.

The likes of DeChambeau and Rahm want to remain as competitive forces in golf. Laurie Canter turned down a guaranteed PGA Tour card to sign for LIV. The scenarios and positions of players under the LIV umbrella are wildly different.

What are their options?

There is a misconception that LIV golfers will automatically want to beat a path back to the PGA Tour. Some have lingering, ongoing problems with the nature or the style of PGA Tour life. Many have also dedicated a lot of effort and time into making LIV team franchises work. “As long as LIV is here, I would figure out a way for it to make sense,” said DeChambeau recently. Perhaps O’Neil should use DeChambeau to market LIV on this basis.

LIV remains in place and so do the commitments signed by the players. While they will naturally ask their agents to ascertain what playing options exist should LIV either disappear or be hugely diminished, walking away at this point and risking a breach of contract dispute is unlikely.

Will the PGA Tour be sympathetic?

Yes and no. The PGA Tour can flex muscles and portray victory over the rebels if big names shuffle back to its domain. The PGA Tour is also now in a stronger negotiating position than ever in respect of what terms players may have to accept to return.

However, the PGA Tour will also be aware of the attitudes of those among its membership who resisted LIV’s strong overtures. Some golfers remain sore that they rejected tens of millions of dollars and committed to the PGA Tour. Such sentiment will understandably only become stronger if those who took the payday have a form of salvation. Joaquin Niemann, for example, has earned $76.32m with LIV but recorded only one top-10 finish at a major.

Just as there are golfers for whom the PGA Tour holds little appeal, the same applies in reverse. The PGA Tour is in the midst of modifying and streamlining its competitive setup. A lot of golfers will have no obvious route back.

What is the DP World Tour’s position?

The long-time theory that the former European Tour should form a business partnership with Saudi Arabia will end as the kingdom abruptly exits male elite golf. A deal with LIV? Not totally out of the question but very difficult to envisage given the strategic alliance that exists between the DP World and PGA Tours. The PGA Tour can shut off LIV’s European thoughts by extending that deal.

LIV had always encouraged players to settle fines due to the DP World Tour for participation on the Saudi-backed circuit. Umpteen LIV golfers have played on the DP World Tour in recent times with no fuss created at all.

The DP World Tour could be a winner out of this debacle, should golfers need either a pre-PGA Tour home or a LIV equivalent. Unlike the PGA Tour, the DP World Tour remains global in its outlook; that chimes with much of the LIV strategy.

How should other sports view PIF’s withdrawal?

With extreme caution. Saudi Arabia did not simply sponsor or assist the LIV Tour. Instead, the circuit was entirely reliant on Public Investment Fund backing. It is unclear to what extent the Iran war has triggered a change in approach from the PIF – it was possible sport was being marginalised anyway – but recent weeks have illustrated the danger of being so beholden to a regime answerable to no one. This has been a sudden shift; O’Neil would have been confident of raising significant external funding had he been asked to do so months ago. Instead, he is engaged in a frantic race against time.

LIV’s arrival has also overly inflated purses on the PGA Tour, handing players an overstated sense of their own value. It distorted the commercial basis on which golf is operated. There will now be recalibration across the board.

The Ryder Cup has lost potential captains and the legacies of established names have been tarnished by needless name-calling. This has been a grim period for golf, one which should serve as a salutary lesson.