Before he announced his Senate candidacy, a political hopeful in Virginia did something not so unusual in this day and age: he logged on to a prediction market exchange and wagered money that he would run. Then he ran. Then he bet on that too.
The candidate and trader was Mark Moran, a former FBoy Island contestant who went viral recently for his campaign launch video. Investigators with Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market exchange, found he placed two trades on their platform, the first in a market asking which individuals would seek public office in 2026, the second after he formally entered the race.
The case is one of three enforcement involving political candidates who traded on their own electoral prospects that Kalshi disclosed on Wednesday. The announcements come after the prediction market platform instituted new guardrails against insider trading that included a ban on political candidates trading on their own campaigns.
Matt Klein, a doctor, Minnesota state senator and candidate for the state’s democratic primary in the second congressional district, traded a small amount on the outcome of his own race. After Kalshi identified him, investigators say he cooperated and acknowledged the violation and agreed to pay a fine of $539.85 alongside a five-year suspension. Klein’s campaign appears to be active, with the primary set for August.
A third case involved Ezekiel “Zeke” Enriquez, a marine veteran who ran in the Republican primary for Texas’s 21st congressional district. He too cooperated, settled, and was fined $784.20, with the same five-year ban. Enriquez finished second-to-last place in the primary.
Moran, who was identified as a Democrat but is running as an independent, did not negotiate a settlement or cooperate with investigators and was fined $6,229.30 and handed a five-year ban from the platform.
Moran declined to comment, but posted on X: “For $100, I just got more attention from CNN, Fox, WSJ, etc than any media consultant ever… In politics, money has always bought attention, but I can get attention for almost free.”
Klein told the Guardian that his experience “points to the need for clearer rules and regulations for these types of markets”.
He wrote in an email: “In October 2025 I heard from friends that there was a prediction market site with wagers on my primary race. I had never wagered on a predictions market previously. I was curious about how it worked. I set up an account and bet $50 of my own funds that I would win the primary. I was informed in March of 2026 that this was a violation of the platform rules.”
He added: “In compliance with their request, I paid a penalty and agreed to be suspended from the platform. That was the only wager I have ever made on a predictions market. This was a mistake, and I apologize.”
Enriquez’s campaign website was shuttered by the time of reporting.
Kalshi said none of the cases were referred to the CFTC or the Department of Justice for further investigation or prosecution.
“Regardless of the size of a trade, political candidates who can influence a market based on whether they stay in or out of a race violate our rules,” Kalshi said in a statement. “No matter how small the size of the trade, any trade that is found to have violated our exchange rules will be punished.”