In his Today interview, Peter Kyle, the business secretary, also rubbished the idea – popular with left-leaning Labour MPs who want to see Andy Burnham replace Keir Starmer at some point in the future – that the party should ensure that Burnham can return to the Commons quickly in a byelection.

Asked about Burnham coming back, he said:

When it comes to Andy directly, I’ll answer Andy’s question directly.

The reason that Andy Burnham is not in parliament is not because of Keir Starmer. It is because Andy Burnham decided to leave parliament and give up his seat.

He went to Manchester and he made a series of commitments to Manchester. And I think those commitments should be seen through.

Now, whether he comes back or not is a matter for the NEC [national executive committee]. It’s not a matter for the prime minister or myself.

But look, my own personal view is that there is a very long established pathway into parliament. I took it by standing as a candidate in 2013, in a Tory seat incidentally, worked on a huge campaign with lots of people, and I won. That’s the standard way back into parliament.

And I think right now, after what we’ve just been through last week, to suggest that the answer is to have another byelection and then a mayoral election, and then all the uncertainty that would go with it – my personal view is that it is not the time for those sorts of actions and distractions.

In his speech this morning, Keir Starmer will confirm that he wants to strengthen ties with the EU. According to extracts released in advance, he will say:

This Labour government will be defined by rebuilding our relationship and by putting Britain at the heart of Europe. So that we are stronger on the economy, on trade, on defence, you name it.

Because standing shoulder to shoulder with the countries that most share our interests, our values and our enemies – that is the right choice for Britain, that is the Labour choice.

But in its manifesto Labour also ruled out joining the single market, or a customs union with the EU, and Starmer is not expected to rip up those red lines.

Peter Kyle, the business secretary, has been giving interviews this morning. In his interview on the Today programme, he suggested that those red lines were not a problem because there was much more that the government could do to deepen relations with the EU without abandoning them. He said:

We’ve not touched the sides on what we can do with the European Union within the manifesto commitments, and I think that’s what you’re going to start seeing more of from Keir today.

Good morning. The news this morning is full of speculation about whether or not there will be a Labour leadership contest. A better way of explaining the situation might be to say that a leadership contest is already under way; Angela Rayner issued what was in effect her manifesto late yesterday afternoon (although she also hinted she would be happy for it to be delivered by Andy Burnham as leader), and Keir Starmer delivers what you could see as a hustings speech this morning.

Leaders can survive challenges. In 1995 John Major was widely seen as doomed, but Michael Portillo postponed a decision to stand against him, Major easily saw off a challenge from John Redwood (the Catherine West of his day, in some respects), and Major survived another two years. In 2016 the vast majority of Labour MPs voted no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn, but he survived (because he was adored by Labour members, a benefit that Starmer does not enjoy). In 2006 Tony Blair accepted he would have to go. But he was allowed to work his notice for a year; Gordon Brown and his allies were powerful enough to force him out, but not to force him out quickly.

No one knows where this will end up. It could end up fatal for Starmer, but that is not a certainty.

In his speech this morning, Starmer will say “incremental change won’t cut it”. According to extracts released in advance, he will say:

To meet the challenges that our country faces, incremental change won’t cut it.

On growth, defence, Europe, energy – we need a bigger response than we anticipated in 2024 because these are not ordinary times.

Strength through fairness. It’s a core Labour argument. And you will see those values writ large in the king’s speech. And you will see hope, urgency and exactly whose side we are on.

The problem Starmer faces is that for many people, including Labour MPs (like Josh Simons, who addressed this exact point in an article published yesterday), “incremental change” sounds like a definition of Starmerism.

Here is over overnight story.

And here is the agenda for the day.

10am: Keir Starmer delivers his speech.

12.30pm: Angela Rayner, the former deputy PM, is due to speak at the CWU conference in Bournemouth.

Around lunchtime: Catherine West, the former minister, is expected to give her response to the Starmer speech. If she is not persuaded he can turn things around, she will formally start the process of trying to get the 81 names she needs to launch a leadership challenge.

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