Families across Papua New Guinea’s Highlands are facing depleted harvests and the threat of hunger after the El Niño weather pattern brought frost and prolonged dry conditions that have destroyed food gardens providing sustenance and income for thousands of households.

The effects of El Niño emerged in recent weeks, bringing drought conditions, falling water levels and frost that are threatening food security in some of the country’s most agriculturally productive regions.

According to Oxfam PNG, Papua New Guinea is currently the Pacific’s worst-hit country from the impacts of El Niño. The aid agency said rainfall had been below average for almost a year and, combined with frost in the Highlands and invasive pests, had destroyed crops and livestock.

Oxfam PNG estimates that up to 3 million people could be affected nationwide, including a projected 1.9 million in the Highlands region. Communities that rely heavily on farming are already experiencing severe food shortages, with some reporting that food supplies may last only two to three months.

The agency warned that households forced to reduce meals and eat less variety are at increased risk of malnutrition.

Papua New Guinea’s National Weather Service says El Niño is causing severe drought and damaging frost by shifting rainfall away from the country and reducing moisture levels. The lack of cloud cover allows heat to escape rapidly at night, causing temperatures in the Highlands to drop below freezing and triggering frosts that can destroy crops.

In Tambul, Western Highlands province, farmer John Wankar woke last week to find his food garden covered in frost, with vegetables and staple crops damaged. Wankar said his family relied entirely on the garden for food and income and now faced uncertainty about how they would survive in the coming weeks.

In Chimbu’s Kundiawa-Gembogl district, 62-year-old Martha John described a similar experience after frost swept through her community.

“Last week Wednesday, all our gardens were covered in frost,” she said.

“We wept, as these gardens are not only for us to eat but also our income. We have been growing potato and selling them in bulks, and all my children and grandchildren depend on this food for eating and also for income.”

The worsening conditions are also affecting access to clean water. Oxfam PNG said many rivers and creeks had dried up, forcing communities to seek alternative water sources. Some schools have reportedly reduced operating hours because of heat and water shortages.

While Papua New Guinea is experiencing the most severe impacts, Oxfam PNG said countries across the Pacific were also being affected. As many as 4.7 million people faced increased risks of hunger, poverty and disease due to El Niño-related droughts, erratic rainfall and frost. Vanuatu, Fiji, Solomon Islands, Samoa and Tonga were experiencing worsening drought conditions, while Kiribati and Tuvalu were expected to face flooding and rising sea levels.

The country’s national disaster minister, Billy Joseph, said assessments conducted in the region confirmed reduced rainfall, declining water sources and moisture stress affecting food gardens.

The prime minister, James Marape, has directed provinces and districts nationwide to prepare for the possibility of an extraordinary and prolonged dry season.

“This is a time for preparedness, not panic,” he said. “Every district and every province must know its vulnerable areas, know its water sources, protect its people and prepare early.”

Evidence of the growing crisis is already emerging across several Highlands provinces.

National Agriculture Research Institute officers recently assessed frost-affected areas in Tambul, reporting that one potato farmer lost half of his crop to frost. Under normal conditions, the harvest would have generated more than K10,000 (US$2,200) through Tininga’s Highlands Fresh, which buys potatoes at K3 a kilogram, the officiers said.

Reports from Gembogl in Chimbu, Upper Mendi and Imbonggu in Southern Highlands province, and parts of Hela province indicate frost has affected food gardens in a number of communities.

The National Weather Service director, Jimmy Gomoga, said El Niño conditions were expected to influence weather and climate patterns across Papua New Guinea for the coming months.

But with some families already feeling the effects, many Highlands communities are increasingly worried about where their next meal will come from.