1) France (no change from pre-World Cup ranking)

It took a little over an hour for Kylian Mbappé to find his groove. Irked by a poor refereeing decision, he scored twice in France’s opener. Ably supported by a stunning cast, Mbappé will already have his sights on winning the competition. Michael Olise has shown his class throughout, while Ousmane Dembélé dazzled with a hat-trick against Norway. We’ll see if anyone can stop Didier Deschamps’s team.

2) Argentina (+2)

Lionel Messi turned 39 this week but there is little indication he is slowing down. A missed penalty against Algeria is the only blemish on his record and, to be fair, he did score a hat-trick in that match, following it up with two more to down Austria as he became the World Cup’s record goalscorer. Argentina’s success will hinge on their captain, which may explain why he was allowed a breather in the final group match.

3) Spain (-1)

After the disaster of drawing 0-0 with Cape Verde in their opener, La Roja were shaken into action. Three goals in the opening 24 minutes against Saudi Arabia made any early concerns disappear; Lamine Yamal was fit to start, injecting the personality that Spain had previously lacked. That verve was not replicated against Uruguay, but they navigated the overly aggressive South Americans well to show a different side of their game.

4) Netherlands (+9)

Inserting Brian Brobbey as the outright No 9 lifted Ronald Koeman’s side, with the striker providing a dominant presence in the final third. He has picked up three goals in two starts, bullying centre-backs in the process: Sweden and Tunisia were thrashed, as the Oranje became increasingly intimidating. “Brian’s quality is so strong. We’ve seen it obviously throughout the whole year in the Premier League. If he has you pinned up, you can’t get the ball,” captain Virgil van Dijk said.

5) Brazil (-1)

Brazil were stodgy against Morocco, relying on Vinícius Jr to prove himself as one of the world’s elite to dig his team out of a hole. The Real Madrid forward finished the group stage with four goals, an indication of his team’s reliance on his world-class skills. His efforts are inspiring his team, who continue to improve with every minute.

6) Colombia (+15)

From the outside, it looks like Colombia are reliant on Daniel Muñoz to ignite their wins. He scored the only goal against DR Congo and kickstarted proceedings against Uzbekistan. In addition to the marauding right-back, Luis Díaz has added plenty of swagger to proceedings. Colombia’s finishing needs to improve across the board but ambitions are changing. “The other day I said that when they hired me, they hired me to qualify, and now people want you to win the World Cup,” head coach Nestor Lorenzo said.

7) Mexico (+9)

The co-hosts announced themselves quickly at this World Cup, when Julián Quiñones powered home the first goal of the tournament within 10 minutes. They have not let up since, winning all three group games without conceding a goal. “Now comes the knockout stage; statistics and data don’t matter. We’re achieving things, but what lies ahead is what counts,” El Tri’s head coach, Javier Aguirre, said. “Neither the players nor I dwell on what we’ve just done; we’re thinking about what’s next.”

8) England (+4)

Thomas Tuchel’s side have had difficulty breaking down teams with 11 men behind the ball; Ghana and Panama made them terrible for long periods but England should be the better for enduring those outings. There is, however, so much talent, with Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane stepping up to secure two wins in otherwise tight matches. There are concerns about the defence, which does not look on a par with the offering in attack.

9) Morocco (+1)

Their early domination against Brazil suggested the African champions have the quality to reach the semi-finals for a second World Cup in succession. They have shown attacking flair with Brahim Díaz and Ismael Saibari combining well, the latter netting three times already. Morocco were predicted to set up defensively at this tournament but they have been adventurous: they had the majority of possession when downing Scotland and Haiti, but the last-16 pits them against Netherlands, who will be a much sterner test.

10) Portugal (-5)

“I’m back,” Cristiano Ronaldo roared down the camera after seeing off the might of Uzbekistan. Two goals was his riposte to critics after offering nothing in the draw with DR Congo. Portugal are far more than one man nowadays and there was a feeling the 41-year-old was holding them back. Ronaldo may have made the difference against a weak team but he needs to show he is the first among equals when it really matters.

11) Germany (-2)

Die Mannschaft scored seven in the opening game but failed to convince otherwise, looking fragile at full-back. Some better finishing from Cote d’Ivoire would have caused an upset, and Julian Nagelsmann had to rely on Deniz Undav to come off the bench and score two. Ecuador were less forgiving, turning things around against a lackadaisical German side who have looked relatively toothless since beating Curaçao. “We can no longer ‌afford to make mistakes like ‌we did and we have to win the next game,” Jamal Musiala said.

12) Norway (+3)

Powered by Erling Haaland’s goals, Norway made a welcome return after 28 years away from the World Cup. Beating Iraq was expected but outclassing Senegal was not a given. The football has not always been free-flowing but with Martin Ødegaard and Haaland making the difference in the key moments, they have a chance against anyone. The pair will be refreshed for the round of 32, having been rested against France.

13) Belgium (-6)

Draws against Egypt and Iran were due to disjointed and pedestrian performances, coupled with poor finishing, while far too many people became invested in Jérémy Doku’s imminent fatherhood. This is Belgium’s golden generation, supposedly, but they have little chance of making the podium, despite the 5-1 win over New Zealand. Kevin De Bruyne and his fellow veterans are yet to find their best form in what feels like a potential last hurrah on the international stage.

14) Japan (-6)

Daizen Maeda finished off a fine team move in the draw against Sweden, summing up Japan’s style and technical qualities. The two draws against European opposition were well-deserved, but they are still an unknown quantity to their next opponents, Brazil. “Mate, I don’t know who their best player is,” Rayan said. “I’d have to watch the video to be able to tell you.” It is hard to choose but Carlo Ancelotti will be keeping a close eye on Daichi Kamada.

15) Côte d’Ivoire (-1)

Blessed with a collection of fine wingers capable of causing full-backs sleepless nights – Nicolas Pépé proved decisive in their final group game – Côte d’Ivoire made history by progressing to the knockout stages for the first time. Their performances have been mixed though. Arguably their best came against Germany, in a game they only lost late on, having stumbled past Ecuador with a last-minute winner.

16) USA (+8)

The US were out the blocks, desperate to prove themselves as a worthy World Cup side and not just the co-hosts. Paraguay were beaten in convincing fashion as Mauricio Pochettino’s attacking bullpen showed off their threat. Folarin Balogun has impressed leading the line and Christian Pulisic is returning to full fitness as the US dream big, despite a much-changed side losing to Turkey in their final group game. “Making history is winning the World Cup, not just winning the group,” Pochettino said. “It’s a little bit petty, if you will. You’re thinking just a little bit too small.”

17) Switzerland (+3)

Johan Manzambi and Switzerland’s progress are on the same trajectory; they’ve both started slowly before pouncing. Freiburg want €60m for the 20-year-old, who arrived as a relatively unknown quantity before flourishing. The Swiss should be on maximum points but failed to finish off Qatar in the opening match. They have made up for that since with slick wins over Bosnia and Herzegovina and Canada.

18) Croatia (-7)

There were glimpses of quality in the loss to England, while seeing off Panama was more difficult than it should have been. Croatia finally looked settled against Ghana, embracing possession and using it wisely. With experience running throughout the team, it was little surprise they held their nerve when it mattered but they may not have the stamina to go much further.

19) Cape Verde (+26)

“We are small,” Vozinha said. “But we have big hearts and we are fighters.” It was a perfect summary of the biggest surprise among the 48 teams. They may not have won a game but were second only to Spain in their group, securing three draws thanks to discipline, hard work and their outstanding 40-year-old goalkeeper. The island nation of 530,000 people will come up against Lionel Messi next – a man who has 510 million Instagram followers – but they have shocked others before.

20) Egypt (-1)

The Pharaohs got their first-ever World Cup win, 92 years after their tournament debut. Going through second in the group is a feat, but it was achieved without consistency. Against New Zealand, Mohamed Salah showed there is still plenty of life in him yet, inspiring his country to victory as they turned things around in the second half. More of the same will be required against Australia in the last 32.

21) Sweden (+5)

Not many teams win and lose 5-1 at a World Cup but Graham Potter’s side have mixed the sublime with the ridiculous. Alexander Isak has looked subdued but his strike partner, Viktor Gyokeres, has performed admirably with his back to goal. If they are to have any chance against France, however, the pairing will need to be at their best collectively and individually.

22) Australia (+6)

Two goals for, two against and a win, loss and draw: the Socceroos are the definition of middle of the road. The victory over Turkey made the difference, as Tony Popovic’s robust tactics were enough to chisel out a win, helped by Connor Metcalfe’s fine strike. The draw with Paraguay bordered on unwatchable but it was enough for this most pragmatic of teams.

23) South Africa (+6)

Jitters and apprehension abounded in the opening match as Bafana Bafana saw two players sent off in a desperate defeat littered with mistakes. They were almost certainly heading out of the tournament until an 83rd-minute penalty from Teboho Mokoena against Czechia salvaged a point and Hugo Broos’s reputation. Tactical acumen has helped the team grow as the tournament has gone on.

24) Canada (+7)

The pressure was on for the most unfancied of the co-hosts, but they laid the foundation with a hard-fought draw first up before pummelling Qatar into a 6-0 submission. That came at a cost, as Ismaël Koné suffered a terrible double leg break, and he was missed in the loss to Switzerland, which means a trip to Los Angeles to face South Africa, a task Jesse Marsch and the team will relish. “There’s also a certain benefit to eliminating a little bit of the distractions and the circus around the whole thing, as much as we’ve really enjoyed the home crowd,” Marsch said.

25) DR Congo (+5)

“The weight on our shoulders was hard to bear,” Yoane Wissa said after his double against Uzbekistan got his side out of the group. They kept Portugal quiet and the Newcastle forward offered a reminder of how lethal he can be given the chance. It was Wissa who struck to pegged back Portugal and high expectations appear to be bringing the best out of him.

26) Ghana (+11)

Kings of the low block but not attractive is about the nicest thing to be said about this team. Carlos Queiroz knows how to set up a team defensively but few would pay to watch them. They ground out a result against Panama but made no attempt to beat either England or Croatia on their way to third in their group. One assumes they are planning to win a lot of penalty shootouts.

27) Austria (-10)

They were sleepwalking to an early plane journey home – that was until, however, an explosive ending against Algeria. “I have no words right now for what happened in the last 90 seconds,” head coach Ralf Rangnick said afterwards. Until Sasa Kalajdzic’s 96th minute equaliser, Rangnick’s side had gone almost entirely unnoticed at this tournament, doing as expected by beating Jordan and losing to Argentina. Packing the squad with experience eventually paid off as they scripted some vintage drama.

28) Algeria (-6)

This does not feel like a vintage Algeria team, and they are prone to lapses in concentration, which has cost them. Giving up, however, is not part of their planning and with Riyad Mahrez still capable of the spectacular, progress was ultimately made.

29) Bosnia and Herzegovina (+7)

This is a team who are hard to define, but they are reaping the benefits of youth and experience. Edin Dzeko is yet to score but has led the line well, collecting his 150th cap in the vital win over Qatar. Bosnia are a robust side with added flair, which comes from winger Kerim Alajbegovic and Esmir Bajraktarevic, whose combined age is less than their captain’s. The former scored one of the goals of the tournament against Qatar but Bosnia and Herzegovina will need to improve if they want to challenge USA in the next round.

30) Ecuador (-12)

When Ecuador had one point on the board and were a goal down to Germany in a must-win match, the neutrals had all but written them off. But the Ecuadorians had not, chanting ‘Sí, se puede’ in New Jersey … and they were right. President Daniel Noboa celebrated the triumph by declaring a national holiday, such was its gravity. Moisés Caicedo stepped up, providing the ruthless diligence required in midfield, while Alan Franco and Nilson Angulo are a threatening combination on the flanks.

31) Paraguay (+1)

Considering they were thumped by USA in their opener and had their star man was sent off for covering his mouth in their second match, the South Americans’ progress is something of a miracle, but the new forgiving format has aided them. They had to show grit and determination against Turkey and Australia, something that will aid them well going forward, especially if they can add some flair.

32) Iran (+6)

Most of the talk surrounding Iran has focused on off-field matters, which may explain their determination. Three draws in the group stage is a fine feat, aided by the wonderful obstinance of goalkeeper Alireza Beiranvand, who made many a striker weep. Things would have been better, had it not been for the intervention of VAR and the woodwork late on against Egypt.

33) Senegal (-27)

Losing to France was not a disgrace but the costly errors against Norway were problematic. The experienced Kalidou Koulibaly was the biggest culprit, lamenting: “Every ball I touched went wrong, but unfortunately, that’s part of football.” It was, however, a good sign they were able to bounce back with five unanswered goals against Iraq. Ismaïla Sarr has brought his club form to the international stage, making the Lions of Teranga a side not to be taken lightly.

34) Scotland (+5)

After mistakes cost the Tartan Army dearly in their final group game against Brazil, everyone knew the team had collectively fallen short. There was no lack of endeavour and energy over the three games but they lacked quality. The fans made the trip into a party but their efforts were not matched on the pitch, with only John McGinn’s goal against Haiti to show for it.

35) South Korea (+9)

Leaving Son Heung-min on the bench in the defeat to South Africa was a mistake, a decision which helped put his team in third-placed limbo. “Of course, if we knew what the ⁠result was going to be, I probably would have made different choices,” head coach Hong Myung-bo lamented with crystal clear hindsight. Even prior to the crucial final group game, little had gone right for Son, who was subbed off in their solitary victory over Czechia. The team fired blanks in the other two.

36) Uruguay (-11)

Two points and an early exit was a shock to everyone who expected more from Marcelo Bielsa’s side. “A tenure that left nothing behind,” was his blunt self-appraisal.

37) Qatar (-6)

Arguably fortunate to leave with even a point after sucker punching Switzerland, Julen Lopetegui’s side brought very little to the party. They occasionally threatened on the counter attack but lacked the quality to get out of the group.

38) Czechia (-3)

Twenty years since their most recent visit to the finals, the team made next to no impression. One point was accrued and not much else over three unsatisfactory games. At least their 74-year-old head coach Miroslav Koubek had time to plan his excuses, blaming the lengthy travel for the players’ “stupid mistakes”. Even star striker Patrik Schick has had enough, calling time on his international career soon after the defeat to Mexico.

39) Haiti (+8)

Everything went as expected for Haiti: they lost every match but ensured they were as difficult as possible to break down. Taking the lead against Morocco will, at least, provide a lifetime of memories, even if it was an own goal.

40) Turkey (-17)

“I can say that we can go back home with our chin up,” head coach Vincenzo Montella said after beating a second-string USA side in Turkey’s final group game. The feeling in Istanbul and beyond may not match his expectations as there are calls for his exit. Seen as the dark horses, they failed to lay a glove on Australia or 10-man Paraguay as they slumped out.

41) Curaçao (+7)

The equaliser against Germany and draw with Ecuador will be lauded for generations to come. Moments like that were the best they could hope for, but they made the tournament richer.

42) New Zealand (-1)

“The experience of this is going to make us better,” head coach Darren Bazeley said as he searched for positives, but his side were never serious competitors.

43) Jordan (-1)

Jamal Sellami has made the most of what is available to him, making his side difficult to beat but without possessing sufficient weaponry to get a win.

44) Uzbekistan (-10)

It was always going to be an uphill battle for Fabio Cannavaro and his men in a tough group, and they were put to the sword by Portugal.

45) Panama (-5)

Two 1-0 losses showed the progress the team has made in recent years but in games with fine margins, they lacked a cutting edge, failing to score in the tournament.

46) Iraq (-13)

One goal for, 12 against and zero points tells the story. Head coach Graham Arnold searched hard for positives: “Everyone in Iraq should be proud of the fact that we made it here and we performed very well in two out of the three games.”

47) Saudi Arabia (-1)

Lacked creativity and quality in the final third. They can take comfort in drawing twice but they will not be missed in the knockout stages.

48) Tunisia (-21)

Sacking your head coach after one match of a major tournament is never a good sign. The 5-1 loss to Sweden was desperate but Hervé Renard could do nothing to turn the shambles around. “We were not at the level for this World Cup,” he said. “This is clear. There is no discussion.”