Since users of the leading prediction market Polymarket have been able to wager on the outcomes of war, fears have been raised that those betting on bombs falling from the sky may be privy to non-public information about military strikes. There has been much reported about suspicions of insider trading on war, but who exactly is believed to be placing these bets has remained unclear.

In February, Israeli authorities charged two suspects with committing security offences, bribery and obstruction of justice, alleging they used classified information to bet on the timing of military operations on Polymarket.

The claims in the indictment follow reporting in the Guardian in January, which revealed a cluster of jointly funded Polymarket accounts wagering on strikes involving Iran and Israel between June 2025 and January 2026, generating profits of about $156,000, according to publicly available blockchain data.

Since then, there have been growing reports of possible insider trading on prediction markets – where traders can bet using crypto wallets, particularly around the Iran war, with suspicious accounts racking up millions of dollars in profits.

Now, after local journalists successfully appealed to narrow a gag order, Tel Aviv court documents allege more about the people who prosecutors say have profited by betting on lethal military strikes and how they received their information.

The documents reveal that one suspect is Omer Ziv, 30, from Tel Aviv.

Social media accounts belonging to Omer Ziv – that match details from the indictment and blockchain data, including photos, date of birth and interests – say that Ziv has worked as an affiliate marketing manager in the online gambling industry for eight years, according to LinkedIn. Account activity also suggests he’s a fan of prediction markets; Ziv frequently responded to Kalshi company announcements and was recommended by other users for a chief of staff position at the firm. Days before the arrest, a Kalshi executive unveiled new markets allowing traders to bet on whether crypto prices would rise or fall within 15 minutes. Ziv commented asking when they might shrink to one-minute intervals – “asking for a degen friend”. (“Degen” is internet slang for a person who engages in high-risk and speculative trading.) The account has been inactive since.

It is not known whether the transactions on the accounts linked to Ziv are, as prosecutors allege, the result of any illegality.

The second defendant is a major in the Israeli air force reserves, whose identity, including details relating to his position, will remain undisclosed on national security grounds, the judge ruled.

Prosecutors have summoned 45 witnesses to testify before court. Both defendants have been ordered to remain in custody until the end of the trial.

Besides the indictment and the gag order decision, no further court documents have been released as of yet – standard for classified trials, experts in Israeli law told the Guardian. Ziv’s lawyer did not respond to multiple requests for comment. The major’s lawyers declined to comment. The defendants’ pleas are not yet publicly known.

Other reservists were also arrested on suspicion of similar crimes, but were released according to a February statement by Israeli authorities. Both defendants have argued this amounts to selective enforcement – defences they seek to assert in court, according to the decision document.

In a statement shared with NBC News at the time of arrest, the major’s lawyers said their client has made “significant contributions to the security of the state”, adding they have “strong allegations” about the indictment – including the improper conduct of the investigative authorities, which led to a violation of security.

“We are convinced that after these are presented, the case will end in a completely different way than when it was opened,” Ran Cohen Rochverger and Naor Alon Sosnosky said.

There’s been just one other arrest over suspected betting using classified information: federal authorities charged a US soldier on Thursday with insider trading relating to the removal of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro from office. The differing charges – one state alleging fraud, the other espionage – underscores the lack of legal precedent when it comes to war gambling. The cases offer a rare window into how these platforms might be used to leverage the secrets of war to turn a profit.

In June 2025, a market on Polymarket caught Ziv’s attention, the indictment alleges.

“Israeli military action against Iran before July?”

Ziv had previously been acquainted with a major in the Israeli air force, according to the indictment. A reservist since 2009, he is the unnamed defendant also being prosecuted. The pair allegedly met while working at a gaming tech company. Ziv brought the Polymarket question to the major’s attention, prosecutors say. The following day, 10 June, the major began active emergency service. The pair allegedly agreed that the major would share confidential information about the timing of military action, while Ziv would place bets using his own funds across multiple newly created Polymarket accounts with vague usernames.

Three of the four Polymarket accounts attributed to Ziv in the indictment match the Guardian’s earlier reporting, with corresponding usernames, dates and profits. The Guardian identified a crypto wallet that funded the Polymarket accounts that also contains five video clips, in NFT format, that appear to show Ziv.

On 12 June, at an air force base in southern Israel, the major was allegedly briefed that “Operation Roaring Lion” would begin before midnight. He relayed the information to Ziv via WhatsApp, urging him to increase his bets, according to the indictment. In a separate group chat, prosecutors say Ziv told five friends that a strike was imminent, but warned them to keep quiet, “so we don’t go to jail”.

Allegations about what role, if any, the major played in the operation remain under seal, but he is a senior ranked official.

That evening, as the jets took off, he allegedly typed to Ziv: “It’s already happening.”

Shortly after midnight, Tehran awoke to explosions. About 200 Israeli jets struck more than 100 targets across the city.

The indictment alleges that Ziv sent the major a screenshot over WhatsApp showing the bets had paid off: roughly $128,000 in gains, split between them.

It marked the beginning of the Twelve Day war, during which the pair allegedly placed three further bets tied to the timing of Israeli and US military actions. The conflict killed more than 1,000 people and injured more than 7,000. The pair’s total profits allegedly reached just over $152,000 that month, according to the indictment. This aligns with the username, dates and profits of bets reported by the Guardian.

Within a day of the major returning from base, the two met, according to the indictment. Prosecutors said Ziv helped him set up a crypto wallet to receive his share, which was later converted into cash. They then returned to their separate lives, the indictment says.

They allegedly reconnected in September, when the major was again summoned for “operational activities”, this time during Israeli strikes on Houthi-controlled targets in Yemen. These bets were placed using a new account titled “Methuselah”, named after the oldest human in the Bible, who lived for 969 years.

Next, in early January 2026, he allegedly told Ziv that tensions were “heating up” and believed strikes on Iran would happen that month.

But this time, suspicion spread. Polymarket users began speculating on social media that these bets appeared to be informed by insider knowledge. Alarmed, Ziv cancelled positions and changed usernames, prosecutors allege. The pair deleted WhatsApp messages and wiped photos, fearing an investigation, according to the indictment.

Later that month, Ziv travelled to Barcelona for an online gambling conference, according to his social media. In one photo, he stands with colleagues, arms slung around shoulders, all smiling.

Then his account went silent. Two days after that photo was shared, Ziv was arrested. The major was detained shortly afterwards.

Blockchains, which allow users to remain anonymous, are also permanent ledgers. Every transaction is recorded, timestamped and publicly accessible. When those transactions intersect with centralized exchanges such as Coinbase or Binance, which require identity verification, authorities can subpoena user details.

Israeli prosecutors have charged both men with bribery, security offences and obstruction of justice. Ziv faces an additional charge of aggravated espionage – the unauthorized collection of secret information with intent to harm national security – which carries a potential life sentence.

Only a handful of Israelis have ever been convicted of aggravated espionage. In 1988, a nuclear technician leaked details of Israel’s weapons programme to the Sunday Times and was sentenced to 18 years in prison, much of it in solitary confinement. During the cold war, two academics were convicted of spying for the Soviet Union.

The press was initially restricted in reporting Ziv’s identity but the judge ruled on 27 March that “public hearings are the lifeblood of the democratic regime” suspended only in “exceptional circumstances”, lifting a publication ban on Ziv’s identity.

The major’s identity remains anonymous. “Due to his alleged knowledge of military secrets and role in attacks, naming the major would put him in grave danger,” said Prof Zohar Goshen, co-director of Columbia University’s Center for Israeli Legal Studies.

The case raises broader security and ethical concerns about the rise of bets tied to military action on Polymarket, which did not respond to requests for comment. Unlike the political motivations of spies and whistleblowers, war markets risk incentivizing sensitive intelligence to be divulged anonymously for profit. It also underscores how these markets blur the line between speculation and exploitation – turning death and destruction into financial derivatives.

All quotations from court documents have been translated from Hebrew by the Guardian.