Something strange has happened on the fraught issue of gun ownership in Australia in the past few months.

In the wake of December’s horrific antisemitic Bondi Beach attack, prime minister Anthony Albanese and state and territory leaders announced a national gun buyback program, dubbed the biggest push to reduce the number of weapons in the community since the Port Arthur massacre in 1996.

Along with speedier progress on a national register of gun owners and moves by the state governments to limit how many weapons individuals could own, it seemed like the senseless deaths of 15 people at a Hanukah celebration would lead to the country becoming a safer place to live.

The reality might be quite different.

Like the hate speech laws pushed through federal parliament in just two days back in January – and the unconstitutional restrictions on democratic protests drawn up in NSW – the rushed process behind the buyback plan looks like a bit of a mess today.

Not only have premiers thumbed their noses at calls to take part, but states including NSW have reported seeing a surge in gun licence applications this year.

In the four weeks immediately after Bondi, firearms licence applications received by the NSW government soared to more than 2,100, up from about 1,200 in the same period the previous year.

Data provided to the NSW parliament, first reported by the Sydney Morning Herald, showed a spike of nearly 700% in the number of licence holders who applied, nominating sport, or target shooting specifically, as their genuine reason for holding a gun licence.

The Coalition, One Nation and gun groups quickly organised against the buyback plan, even though farmers and sporting shooters will be given extra provision for ownership under new rules at the state level.

The Sporting Shooters Association of Australia said an increase in gun licence applications from women in particular was likely down to their male partners making sure they would not have to surrender guns under new reduced caps on firearms ownership.

So far, NSW is the only state clearly supporting the buyback push, already passed into law in federal parliament. The Northern Territory government has ruled out participating, promising a “territory first” approach to guns in the Top End.

The South Australian government said earlier this month no changes were under consideration, after the premier, Peter Malinauskas, assured the gun lobby ahead of the March state election that he had no plans to strengthen firearm laws. Malinauskas is a key ally of Albanese at the national cabinet table.

Victoria’s Labor government is considering the findings of a snap review of gun laws by former police chief Ken Lay, handed over on 30 March. It is expected to be released after next week’s state budget. But the premier, Jacinta Allan, faces a tough re-election fight in November and may not want to risk rural votes by moving on guns, especially as One Nation makes a play for increased representation at Spring Street.

After royal commissioner Virginia Bell handed down her interim report on Thursday – recommending the buyback be sped up – Queensland rejected the plan all together. Curiously, the police minister, Dan Purdie, said a buyback would not “focus on keeping guns out of the hands of terrorists and criminals”.

Bell also raised concerns about whether progress on the national register, a priority after the 2022 police killings at Wieambilla in Queensland, had been “unduly leisurely”. It is due to replace paper records and digital systems which prevent data sharing across state borders.

Despite frustrations about the delays, smart public service minds insist creating the digital register is acutely complex. The federal elements are due to be complete by the end of the year, with the whole system operational sometime in 2028.

Guardian Australia asked Albanese about the buyback on Friday. He ruled out putting more money on the table to get more states to take part, but insisted the plan would proceed on a yet to be announced timeline and budget. The original implementation timeframe was from 1 July.

This complex picture might lead one to wonder whether, rather than cutting the number of guns owned by Australians, the 14 December terror attack could result in even more guns in the community.

Australia Institute research showed that before Bondi, there were more than 4m legally owned guns in Australia, an increase of more than 25% since the Howard government’s hard-won reforms in 1996.

Data from mid-2025 found there were at least 2,000 new guns lawfully entering the community every week.

The prime ministers and premiers were under intense pressure after the Bondi massacre, but the speed of announcing and legislating the rollout may not serve anyone’s interests in the long term.

Chris Minns’s rushed protest laws were struck down by NSW’s highest court, which found they impermissibly burden the implied constitutional right to freedom of communication on government and political matters.

Perhaps chastened by two legal defeats in six months, Minns says he will only move to ban the slogan “globalise the intifada” if a potential constitutional challenge to a similar law in Queensland is unsuccessful. The anti-protest laws were undemocratic overreach and a bad look for a progressive leader.

Working out just what effect the Bondi response has delivered could take the rest of this year or longer.

The Alannah & Madeline Foundation, founded by Walter Mikac as a tribute to his six- and three-year-old daughters killed at Port Arthur, is a voice with singular authority in the guns debate.

Its chief executive, Sarah Davies, said this week that the royal commission’s report confirmed leaders should treat firearm ownership as “a privilege – not a right” and that public safety should be the absolute priority.

Nearly five months on from the horror of Bondi, Davies said the current pace of gun law reform in Australia “is not meeting the community’s safety needs”.

Hopefully our political leaders are listening.