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The Guardian

New Zealand’s North Island braces for Cyclone Vaianu with thousands ordered to evacuate Artemis II splashdown – in pictures Swalwell denies allegations of sexual assault as calls grow for him to withdraw from California governor race Trump news at a glance: Epstein survivors have words for Melania Trump after surprise statement Multiple people face charges, including murder, in California fireworks blast Rory McIlroy surges into six-shot Masters lead with stunning second-round flourish Roberto De Zerbi targets ‘Ange-ball’ revival to save Spurs from relegation Bath hit back to reach semi-final after stunning Northampton in 11-try epic Australia crash out of BJK Cup after Britain secure upset with doubles win Zebras, wealth and power: Hungary’s election tests Orbán’s grip on power ‘TikTok effect’ brings sellout crowds and younger fans to Grand National meeting King signs up David Beckham to his Chelsea flower show team The war over Omagh’s gold: the £21bn mine plan tearing a community apart Britain’s shadow workforce is paid as little as 65p an hour. Who cares for the carers? Tim Dowling: my wife is on a quest to restore my thinning hair SUVs are making Britain’s potholes worse, say scientists Blind date: ‘She claimed she was usually shy. I wouldn’t have guessed’ I’m a sauna person now: the Becky Barnicoat cartoon ‘I got everything I dreamed of – when I had no ability to handle it’: Lena Dunham on toxic fame, broken friendships and her ‘lost decade’ Six great reads: the man who let snakes bite him, masked heavy metal and the brutal reality for foreign students in the UK Meera Sodha’s recipe for noodles with rose beancurd, spring greens and egg Cuba’s doctors were a lifeline for the world. Now the Caribbean is shamefully complicit in the US drive to expel them An environmental disaster in Moldova has Russia’s fingerprints all over it ‘This is as important as your teeth’: are you skipping this key part of mouth hygiene? Man arrested after four die trying to cross Channel in small boat Ukraine war briefing: doubts linger in Kyiv over Moscow’s promise to uphold Orthodox Easter ceasefire Ichiro Suzuki statue unveiling goes awry as bronze bat snaps during ceremony Arrest of national war hero Ben Roberts-Smith cuts deeply to core of Australian psyche European football: Real Madrid held at home by Girona to extend winless run ‘You come back different’: how rugby players change after motherhood
After 1,200 years, cherry blossom record to live on despi...
Chris Baraniuk · 2026-04-15 · via The Guardian

Even in his final months, he counted the days until the cherry blossoms. Prof Yasuyuki Aono of Osaka Metropolitan University spent his career gathering data on the spring flowering dates of cherry trees in Japan in what is one of the world’s longest climate records tracking a seasonal occurrence.

Using sources dating as far back as the 9th century, he revealed that cherry tree flowerings have occurred progressively earlier in recent decades – a now famous marker of climate change.

Peak blossom day is earlier in the year due to higher temperatures

Last April, Aono posted a photo to social media of his spreadsheet. He had just completed the 2025 entry, recording “4 [April]” as the peak flowering date for the particular cherry tree species he tracked, the mountain cherry, or Prunus jamasakura.

Below this, the next row was already marked “2026” but Aono never got to fill it in. He died on 5 August last year, according to former colleagues contacted by the Guardian.

Prof Yasuyuki Aono holding a printout of Japanese handwritten script
Yasuyuki Aono learned old forms of Japanese so he could read 9th-century records. Photograph: Richard Primack

“You can very much see that he planned to continue,” said Tuna Acisu, a data scientist at Our World in Data, an online platform that publishes a chart based on Aono’s cherry tree data. “That made me a little bit emotional.”

Now, following a search launched by Acisu last week – sparked by fears that no one would be able to continue the 1,200-year cherry blossom record – a researcher in Japan has stepped forward and offered to make formal observations of the mountain cherry’s spring flowerings.

“He is consulting the same sources as Prof Aono to get us this year’s cherry blossom peak bloom and said he will confirm the date in the coming days,” Acisu said. The researcher in question asked to remain anonymous until the arrangement is finalised.

Acisu and colleagues first realised that something may have happened to Aono when they noticed in January that his university web page was no longer active. They then learned that he had died and that no other researcher or institution had emerged to carry on his observations. Spring arrived with no new mountain cherry data.

After Acisu launched her campaign to find a new cherry blossom observer, she received dozens of messages. “It’s really great to know that the dataset is being continued,” she said, expressing her gratitude to the new researcher. “I feel very relieved.”

Crucially, Acisu had sought a contact in Japan who could continue tracking not only the same species of cherry, but also in the same location: Arashiyama, Kyoto.

There are other projects that monitor cherry tree flowerings around Japan, since cherry bloom festivals are an important part of culture and tourism in the country, but not this specific species. For example, the Japan Weather Association monitors a different species: the Somei-yoshino cherry (Prunus x yedoensis), which was cultivated in the 19th century.

That Aono was able to compile flowering data for the mountain cherry over a period spanning more than 1,200 years is what gave his data series such significance, said Acisu.

Scientists have found the signature of climate change in a wide variety of other sources, including tree rings, plant pigments deposited in seabed sediments, and even temperature and humidity records jotted down by organ tuners in British churches.

Among the revelations made by Aono were the 2021 and 2023 peak flowering dates – they are the earliest in the entire mountain cherry record, occurring on the 85th and 84th day of those years, respectively.

Aono’s work on the mountain cherry was “extremely important”, said Toshio Katsuki, a dendrologist at the Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute in Ibaraki prefecture, who added that efforts to continue recording the same species’ spring flowering dates would be academically valuable.

Two young women in kimonos in front of cherry blossoms
Tourists wearing kimonos pose with cherry blossoms in Kyoto at the end of March this year. Photograph: Manami Yamada/Reuters

Richard Primack, a professor of biology at Boston University, met Aono on a trip to Japan in 2006. Aono told him that he had learned to read old forms of Japanese in order to build up his dataset of mountain cherry flowering dates. In dusty historical archives, Aono would find references to cherry blossom festivals in Kyoto and, from that, was able to calculate the flowering dates for specific years.

While some years are missing, the earliest record he found dated to 812. “It was really quite an amazing experience,” said Primack, remembering the meeting. “You just realise how dedicated an individual he was.”

In a paper published earlier this month, Primack and Katsuki described how flowering of the Somei-yoshino cherry also appears to be affected by climate change in southern areas of Japan. Data from 1965 to 2024 shows that milder winters were increasingly causing the spring-flowering cherries to have “a kind of bedraggled look, rather than a full, dazzling display,” said Primack. “Many of the flower buds were falling off without opening.”