Few fans of Disney’s The Lion King would think to peer over the railing of Sydney’s Capitol Theatre orchestra pit. But if they did, they would find the musicians have plenty of elbow room.

During The Lion King’s Australian debut season in 2003, there would have been 17 players. Now there are just 11.

The Lion King isn’t the only musical reducing the size of its bands and orchestras. Armed with increasingly sophisticated software, commercial musical theatre productions worldwide are culling musicians to reduce costs.

“Our fear is that musicians are in danger of disappearing from live theatre events altogether,” says James Steendam, federal president of the musicians section of the Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance (MEAA). Steedman is also a Sydney-based violinist and violist, with two decades of pit work under his belt, including more than a thousand Hamilton shows – and musicals have been shrinking their pit bands since he started.

But now, according to the MEAA, it’s getting worse: a next-generation orchestral software from the German company KeyComp threatens to inflict the deepest cuts yet on what has traditionally been a steady gig for professional musicians.

‘I really worry about the future’

Developed by former Apple software engineer Christoph Buskies, KeyComp allows musicians to perform alongside prerecorded orchestral parts without sacrificing a “live” feel.

Using prerecorded instruments and samples is nothing new; several similar systems are already used in theatres worldwide. KeyComp differs in that it allows a single keyboardist to play a show’s melodic lines while the software adds custom-recorded (rather than “off-the-shelf”) orchestral parts that interact dynamically with the keyboardist’s touch and tempo in real time.

Thanks to successful union campaigning, the software is banned in New York, Washington DC and in Hamburg, where the software company is based. The MEAA is calling on it to be banned or restricted in Australia, too.

“In Los Angeles, if a producer wants to use it, they have to pay a big levy to the unions; and in New York, where the unions are very strong, there’s a minimum orchestra size in each theatre,” Steendam says. “That’s something the MEAA is exploring here.”

Brisbane-based musician Diana Tolmie has also observed the shrinking of pit orchestras first-hand. She has played woodwind instruments for 30 years in more than 100 productions in Australia and on tour in Asia, and is currently performing in Beetlejuice the Musical. That gig ends on 5 July; the producers of the show have axed the rest of its Australian tour, citing “increasing cost pressures that ultimately made continuing the run unsustainable”.

Tolmie says the orchestral shrink-factor can come down to two factors: smaller orchestrations (music rearranged for fewer instruments) and the addition of KeyComp. Where there were once six violinists in the orchestra band, there are now one or two, boosted by KeyComp parts, played by a keyboardist.

“Older musicals were based on 24-piece bands,” Tolmie says. “Newer jukebox musicals have smaller, rock-based bands.” Then there are smaller touring versions. It’s these smaller orchestrations that are often used in Australia when a local production is mounted.

For producers with an eye to maximising profit, using KeyComp makes sense. For musicians, however, it represents an existential threat.

“Years ago, you could learn the ropes safely with less stress being part of a larger section,” says Tolmie, who is also a senior lecturer at Queensland Conservatorium. “That’s all different now. Where there used to be four reed parts, there are now one or two; where there used to be six string parts, there is now one or two. Where there used to be percussion and drum kit, the expectation now is that a drummer does both. Some instruments are completely gone from the live pit – the oboe, the bassoon, even the upright and electric bass. That’s all due to KeyComp.”

And for musicians who do secure a pit gig, the work is also getting harder, Tolmie adds.

“I hit the peak last year with seven instruments to play in a show – piccolo, flute, clarinet, soprano/alto/tenor and baritone saxophone. It was hectic and rarely gave me any time to rest.”

Those increased demands have knock-on effects. “The expectation is that you will immediately be able to perform at the level of someone who is already seasoned,” says Tolmie. “That’s very challenging because the pit environment takes a while to get used to: listening to a click track, locking in with prerecords, following a conductor on a monitor which has a time delay and hearing the vocals on stage. As someone who teaches the future generation of professional musicians, I really worry about this.”

‘Do we actually value our musicians?’

Australian producers argue that the use of KeyComp and similar software is a necessary response to difficult economic conditions. Set-building costs, transport, theatre hire and advertising rates have all spiralled in recent years, and an audience facing cost-of-living pressures is unlikely to stump up significantly more for a ticket.

Those concerns are real, Steendam acknowledges, but he says producers are looking for savings in the wrong place.

“Musicians are being paid around 20–25% less now than they were in 2003 if we adjust for inflation, so they are not the reason costs are blowing out,” he explains.

“I did some back-of-the-envelope calculations recently and by cutting six musicians a big show might save around $9,500 a week – which is not a significant amount of money when you consider that The Lion King is the highest-grossing musical of all time.”

Academic and author Rod Davies, from Monash University, says the way musicians are being excised from musical theatre pit roles is indicative of the way in which Australia treats musicians more generally.

“Fundamentally, it’s a cultural-philosophical issue: do we actually value our musicians? And how are we going to support our musicians in their professional capacity if they are being completely undercut by technology?”

The threat posed by this type of software is amplifying the sense of insecurity already being felt by orchestra and pit band musicians, says Lachlan Bramble, a violinist with the Adelaide Symphony Orchestra and the national president of the Symphony Orchestra Musicians’ Association.

And while KeyComp doesn’t generate music from AI datasets, other programs, such as Suno and Udio, can.

“Right now, the biggest impact is being felt among musicians working in gaming, film, TV and advertising. Those recording sessions and composing gigs are already starting to dry up, because what used to be created in a recording studio can be mimicked – though very poorly, might I add – with generative AI,” says Bramble.

Replacing real musicians not only threatens livelihoods, Bramble says; it also shortchanges audiences. “You can’t replace the feeling of what happens in the moment when you have human beings playing real instruments,” he says. “AI and programs like KeyComp can only mimic it.”

Tolmie agrees. “I worry if we embrace KeyComp the audience will no longer understand what ‘live music’ is, will not be discerning, and then that will extend to other areas of the music industry.

“For pit orchestras, we are out of sight – therefore the most vulnerable.”