Is going to university financially worthwhile? New research on graduate incomes is unlikely to help the beleaguered sector’s reputation. Even though most benefit from an earnings premium, worth around £100,000 on average over a lifetime (after tax and student loan repayments), the finding that one in four people end up worse off proves that there are no guarantees. The premium has shrunk by around 30% compared with forecasts from six years ago.

The study from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) could be viewed as a vindication of the latest British Social Attitudes survey. It found that the proportion of people who think a degree is not worth the time and money has risen from 14% to 34% in 20 years. While the research predated Rachel Reeves’s most recent, unfair worsening of the terms on which graduates repay loans, it arguably reflected reduced confidence in the government’s commitment to protect the graduate earnings premium, as well as anxiety about salary prospects and the economy more broadly.

While the lowest earners are still protected, since their loans are written off, questions over the financial benefits of higher education must be taken seriously. Debt can have significant effects on people’s lives. Some university vice-chancellors believe that a minority of degrees are, in effect, being mis-sold, to students who are unlikely to gain from them and to taxpayers who will see no return on their investment. The IFS found that 40% of men with low prior attainment who went to university ended up worse off. Ministers are reported to be reviewing grade requirements for student loans as a way to boost standards, with a mandatory pass in GCSE English among the options – though that could risk excluding those who have taken a non-traditional educational path. Caps on numbers on courses judged to be low-value are also likely.

But while it is right for ministers to keep an eye on recruitment, it would be wrong to assume that earnings are the only valid measure of a degree. Going to university can be a life-defining experience that enables new social contacts and opportunities aside from formal learning. A recent survey of students from Advance HE and the Higher Education Policy Institute recorded strikingly positive attitudes. The 45% of undergraduates who said that their course offered good value for money was the highest figure since 2013, while 66% said that they were pleased with their choices. Just 7% regretted going to university.

Such positive feelings could change if youthful expectations are not met. Students from rural areas, those who are in paid work to help pay for their studies, and those from poorer backgrounds who are more likely to commute to university from their family home, all need more support. But any idea of an overall loss of trust in UK universities seems misplaced.

The sector’s finances remain extremely precarious, owing to funding cuts, cost pressures and rules on international recruitment. A round of redundancies at Exeter was announced last week. But economic anxieties must not lead to the reduced participation of less wealthy students. As Nick Harrison of the Sutton Trust, an educational charity, points out, it is irresponsible to discourage those from low-income backgrounds from going to university in the absence of demonstrably better alternatives. Faced with wavering confidence in higher education, ministers should not just emphasise its value, but ensure it.