61 mins: From point blank range NSW can’t engineer any space for five tackles. On the last Strange tries to manipulate something, finds Crichton to his left with a gap to dart into but he’s hauled in just short of the line. The Maroons dodge another bullet.

60 mins: The Maroons need a steadying set and a solid kick, which is what they get, but McLean does brilliantly to mark coming forward – his first touch of the ball in Origin footy. And his teammates are quickly on the attack. There is a verve to the Blues now with possession and they make 60m with ease. Then the bomb goes up, Tabuai-Fidow marks it, Tedesco is on the ground behind play and NSW get another soft obstruction penalty. Nikora protests his innocence and convinces a captain’s challenge but the bunker is unmoved.

58 mins: And just like that, two tackles of 13 v 12 and NSW score! Cleary holds up play under the posts, waits for Strange to runaround behind him, busts through Munster’s tackle and dives over to the delight of Accor Stadium. What a momentous couple of minutes.

But hang on. Replays show Olakau’atu running into Grant as a decoy runner. The bunker is going to get involved again. AND THE TRY IS RULED OUT! Queensland escape – for now.

57 mins: WOW! It’s all gone off! NSW finally get some space and expand to the left. Koula has some green grass to run into down the left wing, over the 40, the 30, the 20, then he’s scragged by Walker and absolutely collected by Ponga! Spot fires erupt after the hit. Koula is cut above his right eye. What happened? Replays show Ponga tucked his shoulder, hit the Blue and sent him to the deck with mighty force. There was head-to-head contact in the process. Was it accidental? Was it deliberate? What will the bunker determine? PONGA WALKS!

56 mins: Crichton claims the drop out almost unopposed! Big win for the Blues. But there is nothing from them coming out of their own territory and Olakau’atu looks out on his feet. NSW need something to spark them into life again.

And that could be it! Queensland go left and Cobbo tries to go around the outside of Staggs but the Bronco is too good and takes man and ball on halfway. Can NSW finally offer something?

56 mins: Cleary does superbly to rush off the line and wrap up Munster as Queensland begin to expand. Young then dumps the opposition skipper as he drifts to the right. That attack went nowhere and achieved little. Walker turns it into something promising though with a millimetre perfect kick on the last, forcing Koula to mark spectacularly under pressure but land in-goal to force a drop-out.

54 mins: Much like the first half NSW’s attack is blunt, relying almost entirely on Cleary’s boot for yardage. Queensland have much more run and effervescence allowing Munster to bomb from 30m – but To’o redeems himself with a magnificent high mark. That was spectacular. But the Blues are in quicksand coming out of defence… and Cleary runs on the last! Murray is scragged on the 30m line and Queensland have another opportunity. But NSW think there’s high contact. Perhaps stung by the earlier call on Plath? Cleary challenges – and there’s nothing to it. That is a soft burn. The Maroons have A1 field position and all the run.

52 mins: From 10m out Queensland reject the two points in search of more. They make little inroads for five tackles but then Ponga enters the line on the last to add some momentum, spinning and passing out to Toia who is inches from the line but is repelled by some superb defence by Koula. Will the Maroons regret not taking the two?

50 mins: NSW make little ground coming out of defence but Queensland drive briskly to the 30m line with Capewell busy. Walker can launch a dangerous bomb that Plath marks in the contest but he’s smothered as he returns to earth. But before NSW can restart play Munster asks for a captain’s challenge for high contact on Plath. The bunker doesn’t need long to reveal Young clotheslining the Dolphin after his initial contact below the waist.

48 mins: THE BLUES LOSE POSSESSION COMING OUT OF DEFENCE AGAIN! What is happening? Queensland camp themselves deep in the attacking half but Toia has an almighty brain fade and tries to chip and chase his own grubber, to no effect. With so many skilled ball players inside him that really was a poor decision.

46 mins: Cobbo wins the contested mark 12m out to win the drop-out for his side! The atmosphere inside Accor Stadium audibly deflates. Queensland, then NSW, exchange sets either side of halfway, until Ponga almost breaks the line coming out of defence, offloading riskily to Cobbo, who does well to retain possession. Ponga again leads the Queensland attack, playing like a second five-eighth, driving the Blues to distraction.

44 mins: Tedesco gets his side moving down the right, then Olakau’atu shows his grunt before YET ANOTHER PLAY-THE-BALL error gifts the ball back to Queensland. Daley holds his hands over his face in disbelief. But the Maroons hand the ball straight back from behind the scrum! Murray hitting Toia second man and dislodging the ball in contact.

The Blues are now on the attack inside the Maroons’ 20. Cleary kicks early looking to turn Ponga around but the fullback is alive to it and concedes the dropout.

42 mins: NSW only make 20m slowly until Olakau’atu gets them moving on the right edge. Murray adds some impetus, then Strange snipes, and the Blues are up and running for the half. Queensland take no risks, drive to halfway, then Munster launches high to the nervy To’o, who does well and breaks the first tackle for good measure on the counter.

The teams are back out for the second half. Can NSW complete a comeback for the ages?

That could hardly have gone better for Queensland in enemy territory. All their ball players have shone in greasy conditions with Ponga and Walker in particular justifying the faith shown in them by Billy Slater. At 0-20 there was a very real prospect of a record mauling on the cards, until …

If NSW somehow recover they will owe almost everything to one brutal hit by debutant Ethan Strange on Cameron Munster with the Queensland skipper getting to work in his side’s red zone. The tackle, dislodging the ball in the process, changed the momentum of the half. A set restart and a dubious penalty later and the Blues were on the board with their first real attack.

Unforced errors have been Laurie Daley’s side’s problem with loose carries and play-the-ball failures gifting possession and field position to their opponents. Uncharacteristically Brian To’o has been responsible for three of those, including two clangers. Elsewhere, Olakau’atu has led the charge up front while Tedesco has been the overall standout, defending the high ball with aplomb and threatening repeatedly to cut through the Queensland defensive line on the counter.

NSW run on the last for the first time all night and catch Queensland by surprise. It ends with Staggs kicking high but Ponga is equal to it. The Blues then lay a couple of massive hits – including Murray flattening Fifita – to keep the visitors in their own half, but the Maroons continue to attack, thinking they have a free hit with the half-time whistle looming. It almost comes off too but the long pass out to the left drifts forward and NSW return to pack a scrum in midfield and offer Cleary the outside chance of a two-point field goal. The set up is well executed but the kick itself lacks power and the two teams head to the sheds.

39 mins: Capewell has been split wide open and walks off like a beaten MMA fighter. Ponga and Munster continue to bounce around like purple tiggers, giving Walker field position to launch another bomb, that yet again Tedesco does superbly to defuse under high pressure.

37 mins: Queensland get back to work and try to break down the left through Ponga and Cobbo. Walker bombs but Tedesco is secure yet again and the Blues can run it to halfway, Olakau’atu leading the charge.

35 mins: Finally Queensland cough up possession from some loose handling! They got away with two let-offs but now Munster can’t find Ponga 40m out in centre field and the Blues can pounce. There’s a six-again early in the set and the 10m zone is soon breached. Can NSW capitalise? Robson takes control on tackle four, kicking deliberately into the post from 5m out. Then there’s a scramble between Capewell and Murray – both men desperately trying to recover the bouncing ball like movie heroes trying to smother a live grenade. Capewell grasps at fresh air. Murray gets it! But did he knock on? Klein rules no-try on field. The TMO? Not only no-try, but a Queensland penalty for Murray interfering with Capewell in their duel. Huge let-off for the Maroons.

33 mins: Now it’s Ponga’s turn to show his brilliance under the high ball, marking and flying almost horizontally before landing on his back. Queensland again make a mess trying to expand through hands but recover before they can be punished – then Walker kicks long and handsomely into the open space to turn Tedesco on his heels and steady his side down. That was such a mature intervention from the debutant. He is to the manor born.

32 mins: Grant snipes from dummy-half to take his side to halfway, then some risky possession somehow avoids the worst with Tabuai-Fidow juggling the ball safely to Ponga. The kick is again high to Tedesco – who does magnificently to mark and rebound, almost breaking the defence line until Walker gets enough of the fullback’s jersey.

30 mins: Queensland make 60m in return. Munster is having a night out, Ponga is electric, and Plath has been quietly busy. Walker kicks high but Tedesco is equal to it. The Blues are risking little coming out of defence now, happy to drive one-out and wait for Cleary to kick for field position.

29 mins: NSW are solid with the restart set and we now have a game on our hands.

With decent field position for the first time all night Cleary shows his class, waiting for the Queensland defence to rush up to smother him then dabbing a no-look grubber for Young sprint on to and touch down just before he runs out of space. That Strange tackle may well have been worth 12 points.

Cleary makes light work of the extra two points.

26 mins: Suddenly the Blues have spirit. Crichton runs hard, Strange is dynamic, and halfway is passed for the first time in an age. The kick goes up on the last, Cobbo marks it, but Tedesco buys a penalty for running into the back of a Queensland defender and Klein gives NSW a lifeline.

25 mins: Toia is everywhere. Ponga is like a ringmaster. Queensland are buzzing with so much confidence. Then BANG! Strange absolutely pummels Munster man and ball and NSW finally have something to shout about. That was a huge huge Origin moment for the debutant and the kind of hit that can spark a revival.

24 mins: This is an absolute horror show from NSW.

23 mins: Carrigan comes off the bench – and off the back fence – to set Queensland back in motion. Cotter and Plath are busy but Grant’s kick on the last isn’t great and NSW have a change to steady the ship. BUT THEY DON’T! To’o makes his third stone cold error of the night – and his side’s third play-the-ball error – to gift Queensland possession 40m out.

Walker makes no mistake from 30m out bang in front. The Blues will need a comeback for the ages to get back into this contest, but at the moment they are playing well below par and the Maroons are flying!

21 mins: Queensland secure the restart set and Munster drills a punishing low kick to the right corner. NSW MAKE ANOTHER ERROR COMING OUT OF DEFENCE! To’o this time losing under contact, compounded by an offside penalty allowing Walker an opportunity to extend the margin further.

Tino offloads to Grant coming out of defence, who finds Munster, then Capewell and Queensland are soon nearing halfway in the blink of an eye. Munster finds more metres after contact and the Maroons are swarming all over the Blues! The kick on the last is roosted up and To’o knocks on mid-air under pressure and Queensland regain possession!

This is looking ominous for NSW. Queensland are flooding forward with intent. Walker almost wriggles through. Munster is fizzing. Ponga is scheming. And Tabuai-Fidow is over! The visitors are scoring at pace with the clock! It’s a repeat of the opening try on the right – but on the left – with Munster dabbing the grubber through for his flying centre to pounce without a blue jersey in sight. Training ground stuff at high speed and with high class.

Walker makes it three from three. Dreamland stuff for those north of the Tweed.

Olakau’atu runs strongly into the Queensland defence but he can’t break the line – the Maroons have no such problem, returning Cleary’s kick with interest courtesy of Ponga’s vision, Cobbo’s strength and Tabuai-Fidow’s pace streaking down the left. Thereafter the Blues are playing catch-up and by the last tackle the Maroons are in sniffing distance waiting for a moment of magic – Grant provides it – somehow offloading a flick reverse pass as he’s scragged, with the ball quickly shoveled on to the onrushing Flegler who is unstoppable so close to the posts and he crashes over to end an agonising three-year injury nightmare.

Walker makes it two from two from under the dot.

13 mins: NSW have made two errors coming out of defence and were punished for the second of those. They’re now pinged with the first set restart of the night for offside, allowing Queensland to drive to halfway on the restart set and kick long to Tedesco.

Off the scrum, Ponga darts to the left but he’s dumped forcefully by To’o. Queensland recycle the ball back infield and two tackles later Sam Walker comes of age in State of Origin, dabbing the ball onto his right boot for his onrushing Roosters teammate Robert Toia to scamper through and touch down unopposed. Walker had spotted Young out of position after coming in to scrag Munster on the previous tackle, and with Tedesco marshalling the posts, the gap was there and Walker was brave enough to go for it.

The debutant then goes back and slots over the conversion from just inside the right touchline. Marvellous start for the No 7.

9 mins: Walker – who has looked industrious early – links with Munster, then Ponga, as Queensland go through hands for the first time. It’s still pretty conservative route one footy early though – and that strategy is proven wise as Crichton makes a mess of the play-the-ball coming out of defence and the visitors will have a scrum 30m out.

7 mins: One of those forecast showers is making conditions slipperier so Queensland kick long and low on tackle four but Tedesco shows great footwork to avoid catastrophe. The Blues do well to give Cleary decent field position to launch a bomb – but Cobbo does magnificently to claim it in the sir under duress.

5 mins: NSW get through a set safely, and kick long to Cobbo whi is hunted down by Olakau’atu. Queensland take no risks completing another set. NSW respond positively through To’o and Robson with both sides happy to play through the corridor and build into the rhythm of representative footy.

3 mins: From the scrum 40m out on the right Queensland build dangerously and threaten to unleash through Ponga hitting the line on tackle five and driving towards the left corner. NSW defend stoutly. Munster kicks high to the right corner where Fifita wins the tap-back in the air but the Blues are quick to the crumbs and smother the second ball. Excellent defence.

2 mins: A shallow kick-off forces Munster to return the opening drive of the series. The Queensland skipper holds his ground then the Maroons go one-out through forwards until Munster is back in the action to kick to the 20m line on the last. NSW get four tackles into their first set until Barnett is mauled by Capewell. The Queenslander has a nibble after the tackle is completed and the ball comes free, but the decision is given as a knock-on against Barnett, who chooses not to challenge. Big advantage early for the visitors.

2026 State of Origin is under way…

Prematch formalities taken care of, the two sides drift to their portions of the field and embrace in tight huddles brimming with nervous energy. Who will emerge victorious an hour and a half from now? Who will etch their name in Origin history?

“Just chuckled at your Origin scenesetter on an Arriva Wales train somewhere on the border between Hereford and Abergavenny,” emails Andy Wilson. “Not sure how popular it would be in Australia, but from this distance we can take a bit of pride in Ashley Klein’s run of 13 consecutive Origins – which even some of his critics must concede is remarkable. He’s come a long way from lower league matches over here in Dewsbury and Workington.” Enjoy the match Andy, perhaps our only Welsh correspondent.

Now come NSW to partisan cheers from the 80,000 packed inside Accor Stadium. Isaah Yeo diverts his team through a very unnecessary sponsor curtain thing (definitely not an AFL crepe banner) in sky blue jerseys with navy shorts and trim.

Out run Queensland’s starting 13 to deafening boos. The visitors, led by Cameron Munster, are bedecked in maroon with white trim.

For the 13th match in a row and 21st in total, tonight’s whistleblower is Ashley Klein.

NSW won the toss and will kick-off.

It is going to be a greasy Origin opener with Sydney seeing plenty of rain over the past 24 hours and showers forecast during the match. There’s not much wind around and temperatures are mild. “We’ve got to take a little more pride and care in the play-the-ball,” offers Grant about the conditions.

Harry Grant was asked about his side’s new halves pairing, and the influence of Sam Walker on the team. “It’s been enjoyable to build that combination,” he said. “Really talented players individually and hopefully both those boys can bring that creativity tonight.”

With Grant, Cameron Munster, and Kalyn Ponga in the 13, Sam Walker won’t be asked to shoulder too much of the burden on debut, which should afford him the freedom to shine.

James Tedesco – drowning in a navy blazer with thick sky blue piping, making him look like a recalcitrant student at an expensive North Shore private school – tells the host broadcaster: “It’s been a great week. Can’t ask for better preparation.”

He offers some more blandishments but I lose concentration, never failing to be distracted when confronted by Australian sport’s obsession with patronising athletes in this manner. Cricket does it, AFL does it, it just looks weird.

The list of absentees tonight could make a handy representative side: Coates, Trbojevic, Nawaqanitawase, Wighton, Best, Moses, Dearden, Martin, and Haas are all injured, while father time has caught up with Origin stalwarts Cherry-Evans, Holmes, Gagai, and Papali’i. Walsh, Crichton, Luai, Leniu, and plenty more stellar footballers have been overlooked, while Lomax, influential in 2025, is no longer playing the same sport.

Perhaps even more remarkably, the home team hasn’t won in Origin since game three 2023. The Blues have lost three of their last four games in Sydney, and extended further that includes their last four series-openers on home turf.

Can the understrength Maroons continue the streak tonight?

Remarkably, there are no Broncos players in Queensland’s starting 13, despite the state’s preeminent outfit winning last year’s NRL grand final. Meanwhile, Bronco Kotoni Staggs does start for the Blues.

Only seven of the 13 Queenslanders that started the 2025 decider will run out for the 2026 series kick-off. An unfamiliar backline will rely on the instincts of fullback Kalyn Ponga and halfback Sam Walker while the pack will be driven forward by the muscle of Dolphins Thomas Flegler and Max Plath. Billy Slater has opted for a more conventional bench than his NSW counterpart, with Ezra Mam the only wildcard option if his side is forced to chase the game.

QLD: 1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Selwyn Cobbo, 3. Robert Toia, 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5. Jojo Fifita, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Sam Walker, 8. Thomas Flegler, 9. Harry Grant, 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, 11, Reuben Cotter, 12. Kurt Capewell, 13. Max Plath, Interchange: 14. Briton Nikora, 15, Lindsay Collins, 16, Pat Carrigan, 17, Trent Loiero, 18. Ezra Mam, 19. Gehamat Shibasaki, Reserve: 20. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki.

A new-look New South Wales outfit will bid to regain the State of Origin shield with coach Laurie Daley making 12 changes from his previous line-up and selecting six debutants in his matchday 19.

Tolu Koula and Addin Fonua-Blake were the only two newcomers named in Daley’s initial run-on side, but they have since been joined by Canberra five-eighth Ethan Strange, who was called up after Mitchell Moses was ruled out on Tuesday morning.

“He had a strain of the hammy, it’s nothing major but too risky 48 hours out from the game,” Blues coach Laurie Daley explained. “Any time you get a pinch of the hammy you just haven’t got enough time in 48 hours. Ethan Strange will start and Matt Burton will come on to the bench.”

Other notable selections include former skipper James Tedesco forcing his way back into the number one jersey ahead of Dylan Edwards, and internationals Victor Radley (England), and Casey McLean (New Zealand) both benefitting from the change in Origin eligibility criteria to line up on the bench for the first time.

NSW: 1. James Tedesco, 2. Brian To’o, 3. Stephen Crichton, 4. Kotoni Staggs, 5. Tolu Koula, 6. Ethan Strange, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Addin Fonua-Blake, 9. Reece Robson, 10. Mitch Barnett, 11. Hudson Young, 12. Haumole Olakau’atu, 13. Isaah Yeo (capt). Interchange: 14. Cameron Murray, 15. Victor Radley, 16. Jacob Saifiti, 17. Blayke Brailey, 19. Casey McLean, 21. Matt Burton. Reserve: 20. Dylan Lucas.

It might still be Maroons v Blues, but make no mistake: rugby league’s showpiece looks different this year.”

Hello everybody and welcome to live coverage of men’s State of Origin Game 1. Kick-off between New South Wales and Queensland at Accor Stadium in Sydney is scheduled for 8.05pm AEST.

Like Punxsutawney Phil, this page emerges annually from hibernation. Every year it predicts the greatest contest in Australian sport. Most years it’s proven accurate. It is the best kind of Groundhog Day.

The sport of rugby league is in rude health. It is faster and more skilful than ever. The NRL in particular is flourishing, with each round of matches demonstrating an even distribution of talent and clubs separated by the finest of margins.

State of Origin is where these high-quality ingredients receive the Michelin Star treatment.

As always seems to be the case Queensland enter the series as both defending champions and underdogs. This year they enter with a depleted squad, leaders out of form, and beginning the series in enemy territory. History has proven all of that will likely count for little by 10pm on 8 July when the shield will be presented to the victorious captain.

Not for the first time in recent seasons NSW look awesome on paper. But doubts persist over their ability to get over the line when it matters most. Laurie Daley enters with an Origin coaching record of just seven wins from 18 matches. Nathan Cleary is this generation’s singular talent but has rarely replicated his imperious form in Penrith black for the Blues.

This year more than most the absentees cast a long shadow. The greatest modern coach, Craig Bellamy, has not joined up with the NSW camp due to a neurodegenerative disorder. Jai Arrow will never wear Maroon again as he adjusts to live with motor neurone disease. Payne Haas, the pre-eminent forward in the game, is injured, as is Latrell Mitchell, the sport’s most maverick outside back. Tom Dearden, last year’s Wally Lewis medallist, is out for the foreseeable with syndesmosis. And Reece Walsh will also not feature tonight, with the man responsible for one of the most jaw-dropping grand final performances in sporting history just six months ago overlooked for selection while he recovers from a facial fracture.

But these absent friends will soon be out of sight and out of mind when Ashley Klein blows the whistle that starts hostilities for the 2026 edition of Australian sport’s epic annual trilogy.

Please send me your emails and keep me company throughout the evening. The address is jonathan.howcroft.casual@guardian.comco.uk.