With the end of the season approaching, it’s time again to try to get your head around the ever more complex rules that determine whether your club may qualify for Europe. But there will definitely be eight English teams playing continental football next season, and maybe more. The bad news is that if you own a multi-club network you’re too late to place your shareholding in a blind trust. Sorry, but I don’t make the rules, just attempt to interpret them.
How many European places are up for grabs for English clubs?
Right now, eight. Which breaks down as follows: four Champions League places awarded by league position, plus a fifth guaranteed as a result of English success in Europe this season (this is known as a European performance spot or EPS); two spaces in the Europa League, one awarded by league position, the other (in principle) to the winners of the FA Cup; and a final space in qualifying for the Conference League, awarded (in principle) to the winners of the Carabao Cup.
So if the Premier League finished today, who would qualify and where?
Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United, Aston Villa and Liverpool would make the Champions League, by league position. Sixth place, currently Brighton, would earn a place in the Europa League and seventh, currently Bournemouth, would be in the Conference League. The final place, that second Europa League spot tied to the FA Cup, will be decided in due course, but if City win it the place would pass down the league meaning both sixth and seventh qualify for the Europa League and eighth would be in the Conference League, which currently means Chelsea, who would surely relish the chance to reclaim the trophy they won last season.
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 33 | 37 | 70 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 33 | 37 | 70 |
| 3 | Man Utd | 33 | 13 | 58 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 33 | 6 | 58 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 33 | 11 | 55 |
| 6 | Brighton | 34 | 9 | 50 |
| 7 | AFC Bournemouth | 34 | 0 | 49 |
| 8 | Chelsea | 34 | 8 | 48 |
| 9 | Brentford | 33 | 4 | 48 |
| 10 | Everton | 33 | 1 | 47 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 33 | -4 | 46 |
| 12 | Fulham | 33 | -3 | 45 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 32 | -1 | 43 |
| 14 | Newcastle | 33 | -3 | 42 |
| 15 | Leeds | 34 | -7 | 40 |
| 16 | Nottm Forest | 33 | -9 | 36 |
| 17 | West Ham | 33 | -17 | 33 |
| 18 | Tottenham Hotspur | 33 | -11 | 31 |
| 19 | Burnley | 34 | -34 | 20 |
| 20 | Wolverhampton | 33 | -37 | 17 |
You said there could be more?
Yes, but it depends very much on Aston Villa. Uefa grants the winners of the Europa League a place in the Champions League, a place that could go to Villa or Nottingham Forest. Equally, if Crystal Palace win the Conference League they will get a place in the Europa League. So it could total 10 places. But there are wrinkles. If Aston Villa win the Europa League but finish in the top four of the Premier League, there is no extra Champions League place according to Uefa rules. But because of the way Uefa awards its EPS slots, if Villa win, and finish fifth or below, there is a sixth Champions League spot up for grabs and it is passed down the Premier League table. At the same time, however, a sixth Champions League spot would mean Uefa deducting the Europa League spot that would otherwise have been awarded by league position. There are no such concerns if Forest win; such is their league position that it would be a simple +1 to the total.
You were right to say it’s complicated. What is the weirdest possible outcome?
The middle of the Premier League is so congested, with five points separating sixth and 12th, that there are any number of permutations that could mean a relatively unheralded side such as Fulham or Sunderland beat a more established team – OK, Chelsea – to a European spot. There is also one very weird possibility, under which Brentford could reach the Champions League, but only by dint of losing on the final day.
Let’s say Villa win the Europa League in the midweek before. And let’s say Brentford have won the battle of the Bs (against Brighton and Bournemouth) and cannot finish lower than sixth. They would then have to hope that Villa finish fifth so that the extra Champions League place could come down to them. The good news for Brentford is that Villa play Manchester City on the final day while the Bees visit Liverpool, the team currently fifth. Three points to the Reds could therefore give the Bees a shot at European glory, while an away win could end it. All of which raises the unseemly prospect of Keith Andrews praying for a dodgy lasagna, though surely it won’t come to that.