In an ideal world, the only selection conundrum before England face Panama would be whether to rest Harry Kane or let the striker use a dead rubber against Group L’s fourth seeds as a chance to keep up with Lionel Messi, Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappé and the other Golden Boot contenders.
Yet any hope Tuchel had of giving the reserves a run out in New Jersey surely disappeared when his side drew 0-0 with Ghana on Tuesday and failed to win the group with a game to spare. Now complications remain. The schedule is brutal for England, who face a potential run of four games in 13 days, and Tuchel has a dilemma. This, after all, was surely the one that Ollie Watkins and Ivan Toney had marked down as a rare day off for Kane. But England still have to clinch top spot, so weighing up whether to get Kane to ease off before the last 32 is not as big a concern for Tuchel as working out how much of a risk to take with his rotation.
There will be changes this eveningon Saturday, some of them enforced. Declan Rice is a booking from a ban and had strapping on his left calf after facing Ghana. The loss of the hamstrung Reece James at right-back for at least two games is a bigger blow, though, and adds another obstacle to Tuchel’s issues against low blocks.
This was a complication anyone could have predicted. James has a long history of hamstring problems – he was out for almost two months at the end of the season – but Tuchel’s gambles in defence are backfiring. He named only three attacking full-backs in his squad. Tino Livramento, also fragile, has already left the camp but was replaced by a centre-back, Trevoh Chalobah. The responsibility for supporting the wingers now rests on Nico O’Reilly’s young shoulders. The alternatives to James right- back are Ezri Konsa, Jarell Quansah and Djed Spence; none are natural attackers. The decision to discard Trent Alexander-Arnold will be scrutinised more than ever.
What could have been a straightforward test against Panama has a different feel. The cost of drawing with Ghana is that England cannot take their foot off the gas.
Do Kane and Bellingham keep going? Some of the A-listers will be needed – Tuchel will not want a second-placed finish to throw his side’s path through the knockouts off course – and it feels important for England to restore momentum after victory over Croatia was followed by another second-game stumble at a major tournament.
Although there is no panic from Tuchel, he knows England must improve against low blocks. It was a slog against Ghana’s compact 4-5-1 and it is probably going to be another test of patience against Panama. Thomas Christiansen’s side are out after 1-0 defeats by Ghana and Croatia but they were awkward in both games and have improved since losing 6-1 to England at the 2018 World Cup.
Tuchel anticipates a difficult evening against opponents whose back five will sometimes turn into a back six or seven. He is aware his England have delivered some of their most underwhelming performances against deep defences. England were exhilarating when given space by Croatia, Serbia and Wales but the memory of laboured displays against Andorra, Albania and Latvia in qualifying lingers. Ghana were obdurate. Thomas Partey stuck close to Kane, neutralising the captain’s tendency to drop off. The numbers were stark. Kane was limited to 19 touches and exchanged three passes with Jude Bellingham. England had 78.8% possession but did not have a shot on target until the second half.
The counter to the low block continues to elude Tuchel. “It is normal that it is difficult for us to overcome these blocks,” he said. “We want to be active and did enough to win [against Ghana]. We had to do a lot to control the counterattacks, which we couldn’t twice and twice it was very dangerous.
“I haven’t found the recipe where: ‘They do this, then we do this and then we are fine.’ We will try to find a very active and aggressive approach against Panama but we cannot just be stupid and naive. We cannot just be open and put seven players on the last line and defend with three. It’s not serious enough.”
Tuchel values control and carefully planned attacking formulas. He wants England to create overloads in key areas then accelerate the play quickly. The problem with that strategy, though? “There was no overload against Ghana,” Tuchel said. “There will very likely be no overload against Panama.”
It means more risk is needed in possession. It means not falling into silly traps and letting Panama break up play. Bellingham grew irritable against Ghana. He was naive in giving away a needless free-kick just before half-time.
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England have to maintain the intensity. The centre-backs need to be bolder when stepping out and Kobbie Mainoo’s ability in tight midfield areas could help if he comes in for Rice. The wingers have to run at their full-backs. Tuchel hopes Bukayo Saka is ready to come in for Noni Madueke on the right. Anthony Gordon has been ineffective on the left and could make way for Marcus Rashford. An alternative would be using Eberechi Eze or Morgan Rogers and have them drift inside to link. Bellingham showed for the ball a lot against Ghana but was not found enough.
Tuchel feels the connections on the left have faded since Gordon linked well with Nico O’Reilly in England’s friendly win over Costa Rica this month. “I thought: “OK, left side is solved,’” he said. “We played the first match and they’re not clicking. It was not the same penetration, not the same verticality, and this was the same in the second match.”
The right-footed Spence offered little in possession after replacing the more attacking O’Reilly at left-back against Ghana. Rashford was not used until the 83rd minute and is yet to convince that he can be decisive from the start. “He’s a candidate to start,” Tuchel said. “But the left side in general needs to provide more threat.”
Tuchel’s focus is on the collective not the individual. He talked about encouraging his players to relish the “one-against-ones” but warned that Panama will resist every attempt to create overloads. “It is difficult to accelerate the match against these low blocks. It needs this one moment of quality and a bit more precision with the crossing. Are we arriving aggressively enough with the cross? How can we shoot more from outside the box, have a deflection and force this goal in?”
Tuchel is maintaining a sense of perspective. He is adamant no one will enjoy playing Carlos Queiroz’s Ghana. “I have experienced matches like this in the group stages of the Champions League,” he said. “You know they will celebrate their duels, they will celebrate their counterattack. Once they come over the middle line of the pitch they celebrate like a goal. It was like that. They celebrated a 0-0 like they won.”
England have higher expectations. They will be under pressure to excite against Panama. They need to lighten the mood and head into the knockout phase with a spring in their step. Tuchel needs to find a way to lift the handbrake.