Up to 3,000 Labour campaigners are expected to descend on Makerfield for Andy Burnham, prompting fears among organisers that the hordes of activists may end up overwhelming voters during Thursday’s byelection.

Local hotels are fully booked and party members are expected to be dispatched to polling stations, and to leaflet people waiting at bus stops and school gates to avoid swamping residents on their doorsteps.

Cabinet ministers are among the MPs who are expected to spend the day in the Greater Manchester constituency, where Burnham is seeking to defeat Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon.

“There is only so many times we can knock on doors on polling day without people getting too annoyed,” one MP said.

Backers of Burnham are expected to use the sheer numbers of activists and MPs doorstepping in Makerfield as proof that the mayor of Greater Manchester can re-energise the party to beat Reform UK – where the momentum will be crucial for him to then seek to immediately replace Keir Starmer as prime minister.

Some MPs and ministers arriving to campaign in the constituency over the past week are said to have sometimes been taken aback that there is little public-facing for them to do apart from dispatching leaflets through letterboxes. “There were just too many of them,” one said.

The campaign estimates that the number of volunteers – including hundreds of MPs – has meant each door in the constituency has been knocked at least six or seven times.

Reform UK’s candidate Robert Kenyon has visited St Aidan’s Parish Centre in Wigan, accompanied by party leader Nigel Farage, to cast his vote in today’s byelection.

Kenyon was pictured wearing a replica England shirt (looks like Italia 90 to me, most closely associated with Gazza blubbing at the end of a hard-fought contest…), following last night’s World Cup win for Thomas Tuchel’s men.

Hello and welcome to the UK politics live blog.

The people of Makerfield, a constituency sitting just outside of Wigan, have at last begun voting in what could be one of the most consequential byelections in British political history.

Since Labour MP Josh Simons resigned to allow the mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham a clear run at returning to parliament – and the opportunity to become prime minister – residents have been inundated with party campaigners and reporters.

Yesterday Burnham urged people to “vote to change politics” and said he would take the “fight as high as I can possibly take it”.

But, despite the seat being considered one of Labour’s safest (it has been red since its creation in 1983), the governing party face a stiff challenge in the shape of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

Although the Reform candidate Robert Kenyon’s campaign has been bogged down with the revelation of historic sexist social media post and, shall we say, less than impressive media performances under scrutiny, pollsters have the contest a close run thing.

It comes as Starmer on Wednesday said he was willing to offer the mayor of Greater Manchester a “big” job in his government, should Burnham win when Thursday’s votes are counted.

But allies of Burnham said he was not interested in the offer, insisting “the benefit Andy has is the wind of change for not having been associated with the government’s failings”.

Burnham and his allies are reported to be hoping for a “coronation” in which Starmer stands aside, rather than a leadership contest, which they believe would be damaging to the Labour party’s brand, according to the Times.

But the prime minister has repeatedly made it clear he has no intention of standing down and says that he will fight any challenge to his leadership.

What is certain is that the next 24 hours will prove to be a pivotal moment for this Labour government and, in particular, the prime minister.

Please be aware that the Guardian, like other new outlets, is not allowed to report details of campaigning or election issues while polls are still open today – they close at 10pm.

But you can follow our blog for all the latest in UK politics, as well as I am sure plenty of photos of dogs at polling stations. Because, let’s face it, that really is the true meaning of any British election.