… and on that note, it’s a wrap for today!

• Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine will “not allow any of the aggressor’s strikes … go unpunished,” and would be “entirely justified” to hit Russia’s oil industry, military production in retaliation for the recent Russian attacks on the country (16:30).

• His comments come after 24 people were reported killed, including three children, in a Russian cruise missile attack on an apartment block in Kyiv (10:45, 13:11).

• US president Donald Trump responded to the Russian attack saying the Ukrainians “took a big hit,” and suggesting the strikes could set back efforts to end the war (16:37).

• Ukraine has already launched a large-scale long-range drone attack targeting several regions in Russia including the huge Ryazan oil refinery (12:51).

• Zelenskyy also warned about intercepted Russian plans to hit Ukraine’s “decision-making centres,” including key political and military offices.

Elsewhere,

• The US army has confirmed the cancellation of the planned deployment of 4,000 US troops to Poland as part of a broader reorganisation of force posture in Europe (13:41, 17:24).

• Senior US diplomat said the changes “should not surprise anyone” as they are part of a broader US realignment, even if early adjustments “can be a little bit shocking,” but he insisted the US would still be a reliable ally for Europe (17:11).

• But Polish officials insisted they received assurances from the US that there would be no substantial change to security guarantees for Poland, as they hinted that more US troops coming to Poland could be reassigned from elsewhere (13:41, 17:50).

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For what it’s worth, the Polish government appears to be suggesting that the decision to stop the rotational deployment is only a small part of a bigger reshuffle in the US force posture in Europe and that when all is done, the US presence in the country will not be worse than it is now.

Poland’s defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz directly linked the decision regarding Poland with Trump’s move to pull 5,000 US soldiers from Germany, and argued that other US troops could be directed to Poland from there or elsewhere – and even more than now.

This is his explanation:

“What is happening today in Europe and in Europe-US relations? President Trump ordered the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany. The … reorganisation process was approved in the last few hours by the Pentagon and involves the withdrawal of soldiers from Germany, but for this to be possible, this process needs to be prepared.

The Americans decided that this reorganisation would not only take place in Germany but would have a broader European context.

[But] if a different brigade comes to Poland than originally intended, perhaps the one from Germany, and 5,000 troops leave Germany, then, as we are assured by the commanders of US forces in Europe, there is no change in security guarantees for Poland.

The process is logistical and technical in nature and may take some time. We are in contact, particularly with the commander-in-chief of US forces in Europe, General Grynkewich.”

Pushed on this further, he added:

“Poland will certainly not lose out. I think it may gain a permanent, rather than a rotational, presence.”

Separately, Gen Christopher LaNeve, the US army’s acting chief of staff, confirmed the decision to stop US deployment of 4,000 rotational troops to Poland during testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, Reuters reported.

The agency noted that LaNeve did little to explain it, besides saying there was an instruction on force reduction, and “it made the most sense for that brigade to not do its deployment in theater.”

Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk said earlier today he had received assurances that Poland’s security would not be affected by any decisions on the US troop presence (13:41).

We are getting a bit (not much) more clarity on the US presence in central and eastern Europe as Thomas G. DiNanno, US undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, has been speaking at a conference in Estonia in the last half hour.

Discussing his tour of the region, he sought to strike a reassuring tone, insisting the US commitment to the region remains strong, but hinted at some changes taking place.

He said that the US has “made some changes” in its National Security Strategy and conceded that “some of these frank conversation were not easy, but we are not going anywhere.”

“You are probably [going] to see some changes, but we’re going to do it in lockstep with our partners, and there’s been terrific efforts in this part of the world on meeting the sort of the 5% spend [target].”

Pushed specifically on the reports that the US cancelled the rotation of 4,000 troops in Poland, he said:

“I don’t think it should surprise anyone that there are force posture changes in Europe. How it happens, look, sometimes the coordination may need to be better, but … it was right there in black and white, and look, sometimes things are on paper when they actually start to happen, you know, it can be a little bit shocking, but again, the US isn’t going anywhere.”

He added:

“None of this is going to be easy. It’s not easy. Again, some of these conversations weren’t easy, but they were direct, they were frank, and that’s the only way you can be to be true partners and friends, is to be honest with each other. And we’ll keep working at it and get better where we need to.”

He said the focus was on “getting the right fit and the right mix” to respond to “what’s happening here on the ground.”

Meanwhile, the US president, Donald Trump, suggested the recent Russian strikes on Kyiv could set back efforts to end the war in Ukraine as he said the Ukrainians “took a big hit” after attacks that killed at least 24 people.

In comments reported by Reuters, Trump told reporters:

“It’s one [war] that we’d like to see settled. Until last night, it was looking good, but they [the Ukrainians] took a big hit last night.

So it’s gonna happen [the end of the war]. But it’s a shame.”

Back to Ukraine, the country’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine will hit Russia’s oil industry, military production and those responsible for “committing war crimes against Ukraine and Ukrainians” after the latest Russian attacks killed at least 24 people in Kyiv.

He said:

“Ukraine will not allow any of the aggressor’s strikes that take the lives of our people to go unpunished. We are entirely justified in our responses against Russia’s oil industry, military production, and those directly responsible for committing war crimes against Ukraine and Ukrainians.”

He also warned about Russian plans for “new missile and drone strikes against Ukraine,” including “decision-making centres” involving political and military commands.

Zelenskyy also said that Ukraine “continues to document Russia’s attempts to draw Belarus deeper into the war against Ukraine,” with growing contacts between Moscow and Belarus’s leader, Aleksandr Lukashenko, to “persuade him to join new Russian aggressive operation.”

The Ukrainian president suggested this could involve an attack on Ukraine or “one of the Nato countries.”

He ended with a rallying cry:

“Ukrainians deserve their sovereignty just like any other nation. The people cannot be defeated. Russia must end its war and negotiate a dignified peace, rather than searching for new ways to intimidate Ukraine.”

Giving an update on hantavirus, WHO’s Ghebreyesus says that in a written letter he praised the people of Tenerife for “the solidarity” they showed to the passenger and crew of the MV Hondius cruise ship hit by the outbreak and said it would “not be forgotten”.

In the latest update, he says:

• The World Health Organization worked with approximately 30 governments, the crew, passengers, captain of the cruise ship, cruise operators and people in Tenerife to manage the crisis.

• The operation to transfer the ship’s passengers from Tenerife was successfully completed – more than 120 people are being cared for in their home countries or quarantined in host countries en route to their final destination.

• The captain Jan Dobrogowski and his crew remain on board, are not showing signs of symptoms and are expected to dock in the Netherlands in the coming days.

• There have been 10 cases in total, with eight confirmed to have the Andes variant and two probable, but the virus poses low risk to the global community – with no further deaths reported since 2 May.

• More deaths may be reported because of the six week incubation period but this isn’t an indication of an expanding pandemic.

• WHO is working with more than 20 countries to understand the origins of the disease and coordinate studies.

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus from the WHO is addressing media on the response to hantavirus, a recent outbreak of ebola and other global health issues.

More updates to come.

Meanwhile, the Latvian president, Edgars Rinkēvičs, has begun political consultations aimed at finding a parliamentary majority capable of forming a new government after the collapse of prime minister Evika Siliņa’s administration.

Rinkēvičs’s office posted a short video from the meeting on its social media.

Edvards Smiltēns, an MP for the centre-right United List, told reporters that the talks will continue over the weekend, but cautioned that a minority government could be one of the options on the table if everything else fails.

Latvia is set to hold parliamentary elections in October.

In other news, 46 member states of the Coujncil of Europe signed a political declaration aimed at clarifying key aspects of the European convention on human rights today, which critics fear will weaken protections for migrants.

The ECHR system has become a political battleground, with both the Conservatives and Reform UK in the UK pledging to leave the convention if they are elected to government.

The Chișinău declaration, agreed in the Moldovan capital, is not legally binding but it does put the courts under significant pressure to apply the law more restrictively in asylum and immigration cases.

What does it all mean in practice, though?

German chancellor Friedrich Merz said he just spoke with the US president, Donald Trump, as he’s on his way back to Washington from China.

In a post on X, he said:

“I had a good phone call with @POTUS Donald Trump on his way back from China.

We agree: Iran must come to the negotiating table now. It must open the strait of Hormuz. Tehran must not be allowed to have nuclear weapons.

We also discussed a peaceful solution for Ukraine and coordinated our positions ahead of the Nato summit in Ankara. The US and Germany are strong partners in a strong Nato.”

But earlier today, Merz told a meeting of German Catholic that he “would not recommend to my children today that they to go the US to get an education and to work,” AFP reported.

“I am a great admirer of America’s, but right now my admiration is not increasing,” he said, to laughter from the audience.

Wonder if he repeated any of that in his chat with Trump.

Elsewhere, Poland and Lithuania keep asking questions about US plans on military presence in Europe, including the consequences of widely reported plans to cancel the temporary deployment of 4,000 US-based troops to Poland.

Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk said in the last half hour that he “received assurances … that these decisions are logistical in nature and they will not directly affect the deterrence capabilities and our security.”

He said the US decision to shift its policy on overseas deployments had been coming “for years,” putting more onus on Europe “to take greater responsibility for its security.”

“Poland is absolutely the leading country here, nothing will change here,” he said.

Several senior Polish politicians, including president Karol Nawrocki and defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, recently said they were in fact engaging with the US on potentially increasing their military presence in the country (Europe Live, Wednesday).

Similar signals are coming from Lithuania, which also closely monitors the US announcements.

Lithuania’s defence minister Robertas Kaunas said last night that Lithuania was looking into whether it could convince the US to deploy more troops to the country, potentially including some of those recently withdrawn from Germany.

President Gitanas Nausėda also said last week that Lithuania was keen to see US troops withdrawn from Germany to stay in Europe, with his country open to hosting a larger group than currently.

But a recent survey, quoted by the Lithuanian media, showed that Poland is the only EU country where the general public is actually keen to see a permanent US military base in their country (51% in favour, 23% against), while the Lithuanian voters are much more sceptical (29% in favour, 43% against).

Responding to the new death toll from Russian attacks, Kyiv officials declared Friday a day of mourning, with national flags at half-mast across the city of 3 million, Reuters reported. All entertainments were cancelled or postponed.

Residents brought flowers, stuffed animals and sweets to a makeshift memorial at the destroyed housing block, Reuters said.

Earlier, Lviv mayor Andriy Sadovyi said the western Ukrainian city also lowered its flag as a sign of respect.

Senior international reporter

Ukraine has launched a large-scale long-range drone attack targeting several regions in Russia including the huge Ryazan oil refinery, after three days of massive strikes by Moscow against Ukraine.

Kyiv’s attack on Friday followed a series of drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, including on the capital, Kyiv, where a cruise missile hit an apartment block on Thursday, killing 24 people including three children.

The final death toll in Kyiv emerged as emergency teams finished digging through the rubble of a nine-storey block which was hit in what the Ukrainian air force said was Russia’s biggest barrage of the country since it launched its all-out invasion in February 2022.

Russia, which began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, launched more than 1,500 drones and dozens of missiles in attacks across Ukraine this week over three consecutive days, Ukrainian officials said.

Back to Ukraine, 36 countries and the European Union have backed plans for the Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine.

It looks like the tribunal, long in the making, is now getting closer to being actually established.

During a Council of Europe meeting in the Moldovan capital of Chişinău, ministers “expressed their intention to join a new Enlarged Partial Agreement,” which is diplospeak for “want to join the thing.”

Alain Berset, the secretary general of the Council of Europe, said that the tribunal “represents justice and hope” and “the time for Russia to be help to account for its aggression is fast approaching.”

“The path ahead of us is one of justice – and justice must prevail”, he said.

In other news, let’s catch up with the last night’s second semi-final of the Eurovision song contest, which saw Australia (checks notes; looks sceptically at the map of Europe) through to the grand final on Saturday.

The Guardian’s Eilish Gilligan said that heading into the competition as an early favourite behind Eurovision heavy-hitters Denmark and Finland, Australia’s 2026 Eurovision hopeful Delta Goodrem delivered a note-perfect rendition of her power-ballad entry, Eclipse.

Albania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Malta, Romania, Ukraine and Norway also qualified for the big night on Saturday, with the UK, Italy, Germany and France guaranteed a spot as the “Big Four,” alongside the host, Austria.

Finland and Latvia were both forced to step up their air defences last night after early alerts about potential drone incursions into their territory, but no incursions were eventually reported.

The Latvian army issued an alert after midnight local time, with Nato Baltic air policing mission fighters scrambled to respond to the incident – just hours after the country’s government effectively collapsed over the previous incursion.

It later said that the risk “passed” without incidents, adding that the problem of stray incursions will continue for as long as Russia persists with its aggression on Ukraine.

Over in Finland, no incursion was eventually reported after an alert was issued for Helsinki and Porvoom, prompting a brief closure of the Helsinki airport.

But the country’s prime minister, Petteri Orpo, stressed at this morning’s press conference that even the mere prospect of a stray Ukrainian drone crossing into Finland was unacceptable and this was relayed to the authorities in Kyiv.

The country’s president, Alexander Stubb, later stressed that “there is no direct military threat against Finland.” “I thank the Finnish authorities for their swift reaction to the drone alert this morning. Our authorities demonstrated their readiness and capacity to react,” he said.

Air force commander Timo Herranen said the army was ready to shot the drone down if needed.

At least 24 people, including three children, were reported killed in yesterday’s Russian attacks on Kyiv, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

The death toll update came after a night of search and rescue operations.

“The Russians practically demolished an entire section of the building with their missile,” president Zelenskyy said after visiting the site in Kyiv.

The Ukrainian ministry of foreign affairs said it was “one of the deadliest attacks on Kyiv since the start of Russia’s full-scale war.”

Zelenskyy added:

“A Russia like this can never be normalised – a Russia that deliberately destroys lives and hopes to remain unpunished. Pressure is needed. It is Ukraine that is defending Europe and the world so that such strikes, in which children are killed, do not spread further.”

Separately, Russia and Ukraine have reportedly exchanged 205 prisoners of war each, which Zelenskyy said was the first part of a broader swap of 1,000 for 1,000.

It’s Friday, 15 May 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.

Good morning.