Voters in the Bahamas head to the polls on Tuesday in a hotly contested general election featuring high-profile candidates such as the former basketball champion Rick Fox.

Voters in the Caribbean archipelago are divided over concerns about immigration, especially from neighbouring Haiti, and the rising cost of living, with significant spikes in gas prices caused by war in the Middle East.

A record of more than 200,000 people have registered to vote in 41 constituencies as the governing Progressive Liberal party (PLP), the opposition Free National Movement (FNM) and the Coalition of Independents (COI) battle for control of parliament.

While third parties have historically struggled to gain parliamentary seats in the Bahamas, political observers are closely watching whether the COI, which has a strong social media presence, can build on the nearly 8,000 votes it secured in the 2021 election.

Philip ‘Brave’ Davis is seeking a second term as prime minister for the PLP.

Davis, 74, has framed the election as a choice between stability and uncertainty, arguing his administration has guided the country through post-pandemic recovery and record tourism growth.

Christopher Curry, an associate professor of history at the University of the Bahamas, said Davis had focused on the argument that changing parties while plans from 2021 were still in progress would destabilise the country.

Curry expects the PLP to hold on to power but said the FNM had experienced some success over the past two weeks by focusing on immigration. He added: “Switching their campaigning slogan from ‘We work for you not for the few’ to ‘Save our Sovereignty (SOS)’, I think created more traction with Bahamian people.

“I hate to say it, but there tends to be an underlying sort of xenophobia that many Bahamians gravitate toward and so I think the opposition in a way is playing on that.”

The FNM’s assistant treasurer, Carlyle Bethel, accused the government of failing to deal with illegal immigration.

He said: “The FNM has made it clear that anybody that enters the country illegally … will never have a pathway to citizenship. If you want to become a citizen there is a way to apply. The idea that you can break the law, that you can sneak in, and then demand citizenship down the line, we are saying is not right and will not be tolerated.”

Bethel said the FNM would also take action to address the rising cost of living.

He added: “In the Bahamas … at least in New Providence, a gallon of gas is up to about $7. Our currency is pegged one to one to the US dollar. So, when you consider Americans are upset about a gallon of gas being three or four dollars, just times that by two.”

Bethel also defended Fox, a three-time NBA champion and FNM candidate, who lunged at a critic during an argument on the campaign trail.

“I make no apology for [Fox’s] level of passion and enthusiasm … [and] level of commitment,” Bethel said. “He’s always been committed to this country. He’s always been giving back, whether it’s in basketball, whether it’s in community, whether it’s rebuilding after [Hurricane] Dorian.”

Davin Beneby, 33, who works in energy and transport, said sticking with the PLP was the best option: “I’ve seen where the economy has grown since the pandemic. I’ve seen the unemployment rate actually go down.”

But T Johnson, a 46-year-old FNM supporter, said she felt her party had a better record of moving the country forward and had made university education “almost free of charge” when in power.