Here’s a simple project success heuristic.

All projects have some element of uncertainty but over time the questions should become more refined.

If that’s not happening, then the project is almost certainly failing.

The company might still succeed via a pivot but the project is unlikely to.

Consider the progression of questions for a consumer (B2C) product.

• Would anyone use this?
• Would a million people use this?
• What’s the total addressable market?
• Would people pay for this?
• Is 10$/month too high or can I increase the price further?

Notice how questions keep becoming nuanced.

And if they aren’t becoming more nuanced, then the fundamental questions have not been answered. Unless you are really lucky, sooner or later, you will have to answer them.